Assam: BJP Losing Political Capital For Delay In Announcing Name Of Chief Minister

The news, though expected, of the BJP’s convincing victory in the just-concluded elections in Assam triggered intense speculation over the Chief Ministership.

During the poll campaign, the BJP had desisted from declaring that Sarbananda Sonowal would be made the chief minister for the second term.

That’s because the BJP’s chief strategist for the Northeast and the number two in the state cabinet--Himanta Biswa Sarma--has staked a strong claim to the top post even before the elections.

Sarma’s claim is based on his stellar governance record. Seen as a resolute achiever who can get things done, his stock went up with his outstanding handling of the pandemic last year.

Also, he has been the party’s principal strategist in Assam, and also the Northeast, and had been driving the party’s successful campaign.

It was only due to Sarma’s efforts that the BJP managed to generate a pro-incumbency wave and negate the anti-CAA sentiments that had singed Assam a year and half ago.

Sarma’s deft political skills are well-known and his successful track record as a minister in the Tarun Gogoi (Congress) cabinet and over the last five makes him a pre-eminent claimant for the Chief Minister’s post.

Also, Sarma has been the number two in the council of ministers (since he was inducted into the Tarun Gogoi cabinet) for the last 20 years. He has served too long as the number two in Assam, and many feel it is high time he gets the top post now.

However, Sonowal has also made a strong bid for being allowed to continue as chief minister. Apart from his image of a respectable, soft-spoken and genteel politician, he also hails from Upper Assam where the BJP has performed very well.

Sonowal belongs to the indigenous Sonowal-Kachari tribe of Assam while Sarma is a Brahmin who hails from lower Assam where the BJP, expectedly, did not perform well.

Upper Assam, which is mostly tribal and Hindu-dominated, gave the BJP-led NDA 23 of its 28 seats. Lower Assam, where Muslims are present in large numbers, gave the NDA only 12 of its 35 seats.

That was, however, no surprise since the BJP was not expected to do well at all in areas having a sizeable Muslim presence.

Sarma’s open bid for the chief minister’s post, however, has caused considerable disquiet in the senior ranks of the party at the central level.

“The BJP is a disciplined party whose members are not expected to hanker after posts. Internal politicking and power plays are frowned upon and members are expected to be content with whatever responsibilities are given to them by the party,” said a senior organisational-level leader.

Given this, some top leaders of the party are not very inclined to granting Sarma his wish despite the Assam strongman being eminently qualified for the top post and having a justifiably strong claim to it.

The BJP central leadership also fears that conceding to Sarma’s demand could encourage strong leaders of other states to make similar demands and emerge as independent power centres in the states.

At the same time, however, it (the central leadership of the BJP) cannot dismiss Sarma’s claim for the top post.

Prime Minister Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, party president J.P.Nadda and other top leaders are well aware of Sarma’s track record and the crucial role he played in steering the party to victory in 2016 as well as this time.

There can be no doubt that it was because of Sarma, and not any other leader, that the BJP performed well this time despite a formidable opposition alliance and could wrest power from the Congress in 2016.

Admittedly, Modi and Amit Shah did campaign actively in Assam, but they played a supportive role to Sarma who was, by far, the prime campaigner for not just the BJP, but allies AGP and UPPL as well.

The central leadership of the party was well aware of Sarma’s claims (to become the chief minister) and knew that a decision on who would be made the chief minister needed to be taken immediately after the election results were announced.

But nearly 72 hours have elapsed since early Sunday afternoon when it became apparent to all that the BJP-led NDA is returning to power.

The BJP central leadership’s inability to take a decision, and the continuing intense speculation over the subject, has been harming the image of the party.

Also, the passage of three long days has turned the focus on the BJP central leadership and created the impression that it is the wishes of New Delhi, and not the newly-elected lawmakers, which matters.

This has also triggered criticism that the BJP is no different from the Congress whose ‘high command’ used to dictate terms and reign supreme in all matters.

The Congress ‘high command’ had become, in popular perception, imperial and authoritarian, and were seen to be the final arbiter of every issue within the Congress. That led to criticism that there was no inner-party democracy in the Congress.

The BJP is going down the same road by stating that the final decision on who will become the chief minister of Assam will be taken in faraway Delhi.

The BJP has announced that the party’s parliamentary board will facilitate a final decision on the issue. A central observer is expected to land in Guwahati later today (Wednesday) to ascertain the views of all newly-elected legislators of the party and convey their views to the party leadership (Modi-Shah-Nadda), who will take the final decision.

This has led many to question why a decision on who will become the chief minister of Assam will not be taken by Assamese in Guwahati, but by non-Assamese in Delhi.

The BJP is fast losing a lot of political capital by allowing things to simmer and not taking a decision based on the wishes of the party unit in Assam.

After having posted a handsome win in Assam, the party can ill-afford to squander away its hard-earned political capital by dragging its feet, appearing indecisive and also strengthening the impression that crucial matters pertaining to Assam are decided by people outside the state.