BJP's Haryana Troubles: Can They Overcome Anti-Incumbency And Strategic Errors?

This is the edited transcript from Diksha Yadav's podcast What This Means with Abhinav Katyal, focusing on Haryana politics and BJP's challenges in the state (Listen to the full episode on Spotify or on the Swarajya app).

What Is Going Wrong For The BJP In Haryana

1. Consolidation of anti-incumbency votes behind Congress: The Congress was nowhere in the scene in the last four years. It got its act together just a few months before the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

But, unlike last time, where the anti-BJP votes got divided in various factions like JJP, INLD, and Congress, they have consolidated with Congress because JJP, which won 10 seats on the anti-BJP plank last time, ended up allying with the BJP, so that voter basically felt cheated, and now that voter has decided to support Congress this time just to avoid this alliance.

2. The candidate list is a 50-50: BJP has done good candidate selection on about 45 seats, but on the remaining 40-45 seats, it looks like they have tried to do some experiment. For example, on a few seats it has fielded weak candidates, maybe to support independents, they have also shifted some sitting MLAs and ex-MLAs to different constituencies, which may prove to be a bad decision on their part. Plus, the quota system has been in play to accommodate the family members of leaders in both the BJP and Congress.

3. No time to execute the new welfare schemes: Unlike Maharashtra, where the party is able to execute various welfare schemes ahead of the elections, Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini did not get any time to execute the various schemes he introduced for farmers, women, youth, etc. He also got very little time to prove himself as the CM. If there was time to implement the welfare schemes, there would have been some impact on the ground, right now most of them are just announcements for the people.

4. A lazy second term: The second term of the BJP between 2019 and now hasn't been on par with people's expectations when it comes to development and delivery. People are disappointed over the basic infrastructure, sanitation, and civic amenities being ignored; add to that the handling of farmers and wrestlers protests. 

BJP's Strategy

The BJP knows that it cannot get a majority on its own in Haryana. Even the last time in 2019 Vidhan Sabha it got around 36 per cent vote share, which is not sufficient to get the majority in the state. Therefore, BJP's strategy this time is simple: to not let Congress get the majority.

For this, they are trying to ensure that the anti-BJP/anti-incumbency vote does not get consolidated behind Congress.

Haryana has a history of electing almost 10 per cent MLAs as independents. This time also, I will not rule out that possibility, although it is shaping up as a bipolar election.

So the BJP has tried to back some of the strong independent candidates who were part of the BJP, who were ticket aspirants from the BJP, as it realised that they may not be able to win on a BJP symbol.

The BJP is trying to divide this anti-incumbency vote between Congress or that strong independent who will basically be a BJP rebel. And then after the elections, if some of them win, obviously they can support the BJP back.

And because the BJP is in power in the center, so, in a neck-and-neck fight most of these independents, or rebels, are likely to support the BJP after the results are out. 

So, if Congress is not getting 45 seats, that is when the BJP comes into the picture, and with the help of these rebels, independents, or smaller parties, it can try to stitch an alliance and then try to form the government.

Some of the winnable candidates among these rebels are: Savitri Jindal from Hisar, Devender Kadyan from Ganaur (Sonipat), Zile Ram Sharma from Assandh (Karnal), and then in Safido (Jind) and Prithla (Faridabad) also BJP has a rebel who is contesting as independent. So these independent candidates, even if they don't win, may end up dividing the anti-incumbency votes through which BJP can have a realistic chance of winning the seat itself.

Four Most Interesting Seats To Watch Out For

1. Dabwali (Sirsa): There is an all-Chautala battle here: INLD, JJP, and Congress also has somebody from the Devi Lal family. All the Chautalas are anyhow getting into a tactical alliance here.

2. Narnaund (Hisar): BJP's Captain Abhimanyu is contesting against a young candidate who is very popular with youth, Rajbir Sandhu from Congress. Captain Abhimanyu is someone who did a lot of groundwork in his constituency between 2014 and 2019. He brought medical colleges, a civil hospital, road infrastructure, groundwater, etc. People acknowledge that, but he still lost in 2019.

3. Ambala Cantt: Former Minister and BJP candidate Anil Vij is contesting against Chitra Sarwara, an independent candidate. Chitra enjoys considerable sympathy and is seen as a rising star. People view her as someone who can make it big in politics.

4. Tosham (Bhiwani): Here, the Bansi Lal family is pitted against each other. It is a battle between Anirudh Chaudhary from Congress and Shruti Chaudhary from BJP. It will be interesting to see who gets to claim the Bansi Lal's legacy going forward after winning this election.

Apart from these, there are some big names contesting, but they are expected to win. It won’t be like the Punjab election, where all the big shots lose.