Choosing A Successor

No one knows who will succeed Narendra Modi, and the Prime Minister shows no hurry to reveal his hand.

Should Prime Minister Narendra Modi have a designated successor? If not immediately, then later? Rajnath Singh as home minister is number 2 when Modi is overseas. But nobody sees him as Modi’s successor, he including. Arun Jaitley is Modi’s “go to” man as they say in Delhi’s power circles. But Jaitley is overruled for future growth. He has no base. He could not win his own election in Amritsar despite a Modi wave.

The principal argument in favour of a successor is that it would lighten Modi’s load. He works long hours and he is not getting younger. A second-in-command would take over most of the routine duties and leave Modi to oversee and guide higher policy management. It would also provide leadership experience to the nominee and ease the succession.

All this looks nice in theory, rarely works, and provides active scope for conflict. Nowhere in the world does a head of government have a designated successor unless it is China, where succession is planned years in advance. It was broadly understood that Gordon Brown would succeed Tony Blair. Brown and his friends never let pass an opportunity to remind Blair of Brown’s status. Towards the end, there was much disharmony between the two, and it didn’t add sheen to Brown’s subsequent prime ministry.

Here at home, excluding the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, there has been no concept of designated succession. Although Jawaharlal Nehru preferred his daughter after him, Lal Bahadur Shastri inveigled himself between their terms for a short while. The dynasty, for its part, has provided one dud scion after another. The shorter, non-Congress history has not been happier on the subject. The so-called “Loh Purush” was unrelenting in his strivings to make the prime ministry a bed of nails for A. B. Vajpayee.

With this background, Modi would not wish to tempt fate. It is possible that he has identified a successor. It is human to want someone to carry your work after you. But knowing Modi, his choice would be unusual, if he has indeed indulged himself in that direction.

Of his ministers, no one fills the bill on date. Jaitley cannot go higher; he is not prime minister material. Rajnath Singh is over-promoted. Sushma Swaraj is very limited; she failed as Delhi’s chief minister where Sheila Dixit proved her worth. Manohar Parrikar is a dark horse. Competent and bright, the North yet is unknown territory for him. Modi’s victory was not complete until he won the North in the general election. The North has excessive political weight and nothing can be done about it. Unless Parrikar works on this and succeeds like Modi, there will be a question mark on his future.

Narendra Modi would, of course, have to contend with the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) on his choice of successor. But going by the past, this would not present a problem. The Gujarat chief minister and the president of the Bharatiya Janata Party were chosen by him. Above all, he has run a tight ship at the Centre. This could not have been possible without the RSS’s concurrence.

But fortune is fickle. In the high tide of his political life, Modi was given the freedom to handpick his team. If the tide stays, he will have his chosen number 2. But Modi would doubtless ask himself if it is worth the trouble. As long as he is single-handedly able to manage the prime ministry, what is the need for a designated second-in-command and successor?

From all accounts, Modi prodigiously is delegating work. There are some ministers he trusts more than others as would be natural. He has full measure of his Cabinet. Nothing escapes his eagle eyes. In time, his mind will reveal itself on the succession. But in choosing the champion of his legacy, Prime Minister Modi would probably be faced with the most formidable and daunting decision of his life.