Counting Day: Four Reasons Why You Should Be Tracking Rajasthan

Rajasthan is a place of traditions, but this time, the state's political traditions have gone for a toss. Contrary to what usually the trend is, the swing state phenomenon is not as clear, as per some exit polls, as it is always. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains the favourite to form the government, there are some that are giving Congress an edge. Assuming either party ends up in the nervous nineties, several other dynamics could come into play. 

Rebels With A Cause 

Rajasthan has a historical tendency to elect independent and smaller party candidates, a tradition evident in the past Assembly polls. In 1993, there were 28 such MLAs, followed by 14 in 1998, 24 in 2003, and 26 in 2008. The trend continued with 16 in 2013 and 27 in 2018. 

In the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress fell one seat short of a simple majority with 100 seats. To secure governance, the party formed an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Notably, 27 independent and small-party MLAs played a crucial role in supporting Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's government in 2018. This time, there are 31 seats where contenders from smaller parties will look to spoil the prospects of the national parties. Alongside, 31 rebels from both parties (17 from Congress, 14 from BJP), could wreck the electoral math on the big day. 

Law And Leakages 

The Prime Minister, while campaigning in Rajasthan, spoke about the gruesome murder of Kanhaiya Lal in Udaipur, thus ushering in discussion of the depleting law and order situation in the state. 

Modi asserted that groups such as the Popular Front of India (PFI) freely conduct rallies in the state without apprehension due to the Congress government's alleged sympathy towards terrorists. Accusing the Congress of banning Ram Navami processions and Kanwar Yatras during its rule, he further contended that corruption is ingrained in the Congress's functioning. 

Many pollsters have also cited discontent amongst the young population due to the paper leakages. In October 2023, in a money laundering investigation related to the exam paper leak case, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) conducted raids at the residences of Rajasthan Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra in Jaipur and Sikar. 

Minority Appeasement 

In the last week of October, the BJP went all out against the state government over the issue of the murder of a priest in Dausa. In the same month, protests happened in Jaipur city against compensation being awarded to the family of a Muslim boy who had been killed in a road rage accident. The protesters contested the Rs. 50 Lakh compensation and termed it as minority appeasement. 

The gradually depleting law and order of the state, coupled with prolonged minority appeasement under the Ashok Gehlot government, have been a double whammy for the electorate. On the day of the polling, many voters, coming out after exercising their right to vote, spoke to the media and were unapologetic in attacking the state government over its stance on minorities. 

Factionalism And Face

In Rajasthan, the bickering between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot is out in the open. Voters must have recalled the anti-corruption yatra Pilot taken out against the Congress state government recently.

Given Gehlot has been overriding several directions from the Delhi leadership, one can expect the feud to resume, if, at all, Congress manages to win the election. However, if Gehlot fails to deliver, there could be an opening for Pilot in the future. Quite like Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh, this could be the last hurray for the Rajasthan Chief Minister. 

The BJP has had some of its problems as well, though not as public and prolonged as that of the Congress. As was the case in Madhya Pradesh, the party chose to fight the election with ‘Brand Modi’ as its focus. To sideline former Chief Minister and the most powerful BJP leader in Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje, is being termed as a brave move in some corners, and bearish in many. On the counting day, the BJP would hope to not land up in the nervous nineties.