How A Flawed Candidate Trumped Establishment

Pollsters of all hues and inclinations assured us the Republic Party cannot, will not elect as repulsive a person as Donald Trump. Even Jeb “low-energy” Bush suggested to the Donald that he cannot insult his way to the Presidency. Well, he is just one step away, now.

Everyone forgot one important stakeholder: the voters. Everyone hates Donald Trump, except the voters.

The Donald Phenomenon

New York Times has compiled a list of 210 people, places, and things Trump has insulted since he launched his campaign for Presidency last June. Let’s just look at some of the major insults thrown by Trump at his opponents. Insults which would have destroyed any candidate in any presidential election. But not Trump’s. Not this year.

When Megyn Kelly grilled Trump on his misogynistic streak during one of the debates, he said, in a phone conversation with CNN, the Fox News host had “blood coming out of her wherever”, suggesting her menstrual cycle was somehow behind her tough questioning.

He used “schlonged”, a Yiddish word for a man’s penis, to describe Hillary Clinton’s loss at the hands of Obama in 2008. “She got schlonged, she lost, I mean she lost,” Trump said in December last year. How does one survive such vulgar sexist attacks in a country where a mere slip of the tongue can pretty much seal your fate? “Binders full of women”, anyone?

How does one survive by insinuating that majority of the Mexican illegal immigrants are “criminals”, “rapists”, and “killers” in a country where Latinos and Hispanics constitute 17 percent of the total population?

Eight years ago, the Republicans selected John Mccain, a Vietnam war veteran and former prisoner of war, to run for President. The Arizona senator was captured during the war and held a prisoner for more than five years. Donald didn’t even spare him. “He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.” That’s pretty rich coming from a guy who has been accused of dodging the draft. By the by, there used to be a time when the revelation of draft-dodging could end your campaign. Not this time. When did attacking war heroes become kosher in America?

Donald has called the 2012 Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who he endorsed at the time, “a total joke”, “choker who let us down”.

Despite all these insults, insinuations and innuendos, Trump’s campaign has not just survived but thrived. He has defeated his 16 Republican rivals - Governors, Senators, Anti-Establishment torch bearers, Reaganites bannermen, Conservatives, Republicans, Republicans In Name Only, Libertarians, Small government advocates and who not.

Defeating candidates is one thing but he has not done just that. He managed to get the goat of the whole party establishment, which was fervently hoping for a contested convention where party bosses could crown anyone but Trump. But he utterly destroyed the #NeverTrump movement. He is the last man standing in the arena even when 450 delegates are still to be divvied up.

How did he do this? What explains this unprecedented phenomenon? Pundits don’t have an answer. And they have been so off the mark this election cycle that we shouldn’t even look upto them for an explanation.

President Barack Obama made disparaging remarks against Trump recently at his last White House Correspondents dinner. “The guy wanted to give his hotel business a boost, and now we’re praying that Cleveland makes it through July,” he said. Obama is being dishonest here, belittling the ambition of an extremely ambitious man. Obama’s attempt at laughing off Trump aside, such jokes at establishment dinners will hamper rather than help his putative successor Hillary Clinton, against whom he himself ran on the “outsider” plank in 2008.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb seems to have got it right when he says this:

According to Taleb, the phenomenon is not just limited to the US but a global one.

Highly Effective Rhetoric

Trump’s rhetoric is intemperate most of the time, no doubt, but it resonates with the voters. The success of his personal attacks, namecalling if you will, is telling. Jeb “low energy” Bush, “Lyin’ Ted”, “Little Marco” - all have helped him tremendously in taking down his rivals one by one. He has one ready for Clinton too: “Crooked Hillary”!

Donald says “America First” will be his foreign policy. He reasons, “We cannot be the World’s policeman”. He says all Nato members should bear the fair share and shouldn’t expect the US to spend disproportionally. Such commonsense utterances rile up the elites in the security establishment. It tells how far removed they are from the average voter. Even the utter failure of Iraq war hasn’t woken them up from the disasters of interventionist foreign policy.

Obama is doing the same quietly, not investing too much money and muscle in the war against ISIS, thereby forcing the European nations to deal with the issue themselves. But Obama gets a pass from the Liberal media because he is cool and gives mic dropping speeches, literally.

Trump wants Japan and South Korea to arm themselves with nuclear weapons. He has asked them to contribute more to the cost of keeping about 80,000 US troops stationed in their countries otherwise, he would consider calling them home. Of course, any nation should shoulder the responsibility for its own defence. Japan’s foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, said: “It is impossible that Japan will arm itself with nuclear weapons.” The dismissive attitude is not going to help. Japan shouldn’t let past horrors dictate its future policy. As a self-respecting nation, it shouldn’t have tied its security to American leaders’ whims for so long. It’s still not too late.

Trump says combat troops are necessary to fight and defeat ISIS but all countries with skin in the game should share the cost. Obviously, European countries, overwhelmed with migrants from war-torn Iraq and Syria, have the most to gain with ISIS’ defeat. Not to mention the Middle east ones, including Saudi Arabia, whose rulers are terrified of the Caliphate’s rise.

These are not radical ideas. They seem so because the conventional wisdom, the “no-skin-in-the-game policymaking ‘clerks’” and “people with perfect resumes and records of failure around the world” have always told the Americans: This is how you ought to think. Trump says, not anymore.

Killing Reagan

The party of Reagan - pro-small government, pro-free trade, pro-interventionist foreign policy, clothed in Christian social conservatism is dead today for all practical purposes. Trump, like the Democratic Socialist Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders has railed against trade deals like NAFTA and TTP. He is threatening the firms who shift jobs outside with punitive measures.

He also wants to repeal Obamacare like his Republican rivals but for different reasons. He doesn’t think it goes far enough and is for Canadian style single payer healthcare. Trump has since walked back on his comments.

On 4 May, Trump declared himself open to “doing something” on the minimum wage. Reagan Republicans in past have torpedoed any attempts by the Democrats to raise the minimum wage, terming such moves anti-business.

It wouldn’t be too off the mark to remark that a democratic socialist in conservative clothing armed with vicious (but effective) rhetoric has snuffed out whatever flicker of true conservatism was left in the party of Ronald Reagan. It’s Trump’s party now.

The King Of Flip-Flops

No one knows where Trump “really” stands on most of the issues. He was a registered Democrat till 2009. In 1999, he was “very pro-choice”, now he is pro-life. Earlier, he supported an assault weapons ban and a longer waiting period to purchase a firearm, now he rubs shoulder with the NRA guys. He once praised Hillary as a fantastic Senator, now he thinks she was the worst secretary of state in the history of America.

Problem With Trump

Apart from the obvious migrant-deporting, Muslims-banning, sexism laced rhetoric, the most troubling thing is Trump’s total lack of attention span. This is unimaginable for a person who is running for President. The job requires one to listen for hours to one’s advisers before reaching a conclusion on issues that can have far-reaching consequences not just for America but the whole world.

He just cannot take any criticism in the right spirit and lashes out at anybody who criticises him with childish retorts. For instance, read this exchange between CNN anchor Anderson Cooper and Trump during a town hall.

COOPER:  I want to bring into the audience just a moment.  Just a last question before we do.  I’ve got to ask you about this back and forth between you and Senator Cruz about wives.

After saying that you were going to spill the beans about Heidi Cruz, you retweeted an unflattering picture of her next to a picture of your wife.

TRUMP:  I thought it was a nice picture of Heidi.  I thought it was fine.

COOPER:  Come on.

TRUMP:  I thought it was fine.  She’s a pretty woman.

COOPER:  You’re running for president of the United States.

TRUMP:  Excuse me, I didn’t start it.  I didn’t start it.

COOPER:  But, sir, with all due respect, that’s the argument of 5-year-old.

TRUMP:  No, it’s not.

COOPER:  The argument of a 5-year-old is he started it.

Cooper is right. But The Donald just won’t accept it. He is too full of himself to accept his mistakes. This is the kind of thing that really worries an average joe.

He boasted once at a rally that he could stand in the middle of the 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and he still wouldn’t lose voters.

He keeps saying such outrageous things and his vote share just keeps shooting up. Maybe the anger against the establishment is so high in America that people are willing to forgive all sins of Trump. Or maybe it’s the audacious self-confidence and marketing skills of Trump that are at work.

Whichever the case may be, a Trump presidency is now a real possibility. He is just one step away from being the most powerful guy in the world. The world better be prepared for President Trump.

As far as we are concerned, a Trump Presidency may not be bad for India.