How BJP’s Diplu Ranjan Broke Congress’ Decades-Long Hold On This Assam Seat

Samaguri, located in the heart of Nagaon district, has long been a prominent political battleground in Assam, known for its unique dynamics of minority politics.

Situated in the central part of Assam, Nagaon district has a deep-rooted history in the political landscape of the state. It is a region where the political tides have often been shaped by the high proportion of the Muslim population, which has consistently influenced electoral outcomes.

The district, particularly the Samaguri constituency, has been historically considered a stronghold of the Indian National Congress, with the party maintaining a dominant presence for decades. This stronghold has been partially attributed to the significant Muslim demographic, which has been a key factor in determining the political fortunes of candidates.

For many years, the Congress party has been the preferred choice of the electorate, with local leaders from the party managing to retain a firm grip on the region.

One of the most notable figures associated with Nagaon district’s political landscape is Dev Kant Barooah, the former union minister and the only Assamese to ever serve as the National President of the Indian National Congress. Barooah, a prominent leader in the state, hailed from Nagaon, and his legacy still looms large in the region's political psyche.

His tenure at the helm of the Congress party helped solidify the district as a Congress bastion, creating a political environment where Congress could dominate both at the state and local levels. Barooah was pivotal in backing Indira Gandhi during the Emergency and gave the slogan, “India is Indira and Indira is India.”

Over the years, Nagaon has remained a Congress fortress, largely due to the influence of the Muslim vote bank, which has played a critical role in shaping electoral outcomes. Even as the political landscape of Assam shifted in the 1990s and 2000s, with the rise of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress maintained its stronghold in the region.

The Samaguri assembly seat, part of this larger political framework, has seen significant victories for Congress leaders.

Among the most prominent figures to have held the seat is Rakibul Hussain, the current Lok Sabha Member of Parliament from Dhubri. He has served as the MLA of Samaguri for five consecutive terms and has played an instrumental role in shaping the political narrative of the region. His family has been a dominant force in Samaguri politics. His father, Nurul Hussain, also served as the MLA from Samaguri on two occasions, in 1981 and 1991. Nurul Hussain’s political influence extended beyond Samaguri, with him later shifting base to Hajo.

The Hussain family's political legacy in Samaguri continued with Rakibul’s rise, as he became a key player not only in Samaguri but also in Assam's political scene, especially in the context of minority politics.

Rakibul Hussain remained an undefeated MLA since his electoral debut in 2001 and rose up the political ladder to become a minister holding seven different portfolios under Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. Over his uninterrupted five-term tenure in Samaguri, he became the sole voice addressing the aspirations of the minority communities in the region, a vote bank that stayed loyal to his family until now.

However, in 2024, Rakibul Hussain vacated the Samaguri assembly seat to contest the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Dhubri, a move that opened the door for a new political contest in this Congress stronghold.

The Congress, eager to maintain its dominance, fielded Rakibul’s son, Tanzil Hussain, as the party’s candidate for the Samaguri by-election, continuing the family legacy. The BJP, determined to break Congress’ grip on Samaguri, fielded Diplu Ranjan Sarmah as their candidate. A young, educated leader with strong organisational roots, Sarmah’s candidacy was seen as a significant challenge to the decades-long dominance of the Hussain family and the Congress party in Samaguri.

When Diplu Ranjan Sarmah was first announced as the BJP candidate for the November 13 bypoll, Rakibul Hussain was quick to dismiss him, calling him a "sacrificial goat" sent by the BJP to face an inevitable defeat. However, Sarmah responded with confidence, saying, "The toughest battles are given to the strongest soldier."

His words reflected his determination to contest the seat with vigour, knowing that the 'battle for Samaguri' was not going to be easy, especially against the powerful Hussain family and the well-established Congress machinery.

But before we discuss the campaign further, let us delve into Sarmah’s background.

Who is Diplu Ranjan Sarmah?

Diplu Ranjan Sarmah, born in 1976 in Kaliabor, Assam, has emerged as a significant political figure, particularly in the context of the BJP's growing influence in the state.

Diplu’s early life and education laid the foundation for his political involvement. He completed his Bachelor's degree in Commerce from Nagaon College, where he first encountered the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). His association with the RSS grew stronger as he completed his second-year training in 1997, which led to his appointment as the Nagaon Sampark Pramukh at a young age.

This early exposure to Sangh's ideology and organisational methods shaped his leadership style and political outlook. During my interview with him, Sarmah recalled being drawn to the teachings of stalwarts such as Deen Dayal Upadhyay, Syama Prasad Mookerjee and more recently, Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Diplu Ranjan Sarmah's career in the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM), the youth wing of the BJP, saw a meteoric rise as he took on several key roles within the organisation.

He served as state secretary of BJYM in Assam from 2010, before moving on to become the state general secretary of BJYM from 2012 to 2014. From 2014 to 2017, he held the position of state president of BJYM, Assam Pradesh, a critical leadership role in which he worked closely with youth and grassroots organisations.

His tenure as state president helped solidify his position within the party, and he quickly became recognised as a leader with a strong understanding of Assam's political landscape. His engagement with the party’s policies and knack for handling communications saw him take up the role of a panelist and spokesperson for the BJP during the 2016 elections.

Diplu's continued to take on increasingly significant roles within the BJP. He served as state secretary for the BJP in Assam in two separate terms, from 2017 to 2019 and then from 2019 to 2021. In 2021, he became the state general secretary, a position that solidified his influence within the party structure and organisation.

In addition, he played a crucial role as the Joint Convenor of the State Election Management Cell during the 2021 Assam Vidhan Sabha elections, where the BJP contested 93 seats and won 60. His organisational skills and strategic foresight were seen as valuable in ensuring the BJP's success.

Diplu was also deployed to manage campaigns in West Bengal (2021) Meghalaya (2023). In the latter, he oversaw arrangements for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s roadshow in Shillong. This, he claims, helped him gain a broader perspective on election strategies and management.

As the BJP has increasingly grown in stature across Assam, Sarmah has emerged as a strong leader, especially in an evolving party structure where many prominent figures are former Congress members.

Diplu's rise within the BJP ranks, having come from the grassroots level and being deeply aligned with the RSS, stands in contrast to the party's strategy of welcoming leaders from other political affiliations. His political career has thus been seen as a testament to his loyalty.

Sarmah was one of the strongest candidates for the Kaziranga parliamentary constituency for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections but was denied the party ticket. However, the Samaguri by-election of 2024 became a defining moment in his career.

Although the election seemed unfavourable at first, it presented him with an opportunity to challenge the entrenched political establishment of the Congress.

*****

The Samaguri by-election campaign saw Tanzil Hussain rely heavily on his family’s legacy, with his father Rakibul accompanying him to nearly every campaign event. Tanzil's strategy was to use the "family factor" to consolidate the vote bank, appealing to traditional supporters who had backed his father’s leadership.

At times, Tanzil also resorted to divisive rhetoric, attempting to pit Muslims against minority Hindus, a tactic aimed at consolidating votes within the Muslim community.

His father also made a scathing claim that the BJP was selling beef to appeal to Muslim voters. This created a huge uproar.

Sarmah, on the other hand, ran a positive, issue-based campaign. He presented himself as a new, educated and forward-thinking leader, committed to the development of the region.

Diplu’s emphasis on education was a significant part of his platform. He had been involved in translating books written by the late Dr A P J Abdul Kalam, the former President of India, to the Assamese language. (Diplu says he had the privilege of meeting Dr Kalam twice). His focus on education and youth empowerment seemed to have particularly resonated in Samaguri, a constituency plagued by mis-governance and lack of opportunities for its working-age population.

One of Diplu's key promises in the campaign was establishing civil services coaching centres in Samaguri. Sarmah claims this promise most resonated with the local population, especially the youth, who felt disenfranchised and lacked opportunities to improve their futures.

Decoding the Verdict

Diplu Ranjan Sarmah's victory in the Samaguri by-election of 2024 was nothing short of unprecedented. The BJP’s rise in Assam has been marked by several surprising shifts, but his triumph in this election, with a staggering margin of 24,501 votes, stands out as a watershed moment.

He polled 81,321 votes, which is more than what Rakibul Hussain polled in his last two elections. Diplu’s victory was not merely a personal achievement but also a reflection of the changing political dynamics in the state.

One of the most striking aspects of Sarmah’s win was the dramatic swing in minority votes. In the 2021 Assam Legislative Assembly elections, the BJP only attained 15 per cent of the Muslim vote in Samaguri. However, in 2024, that proportion soared to about 44 per cent, swinging decisively in favour of the BJP.

This shift was pivotal in securing Sarmah’s victory, as that demographic had traditionally been Congress' stronghold in the constituency. To fully understand the scale of this transformation, we need to examine the key factors that contributed to this surprising outcome.

The first consideration is that it was a by-election and, in any by-election, the voters tend to be more inclined to support the incumbent party, which can be a strong source of momentum for the ruling establishment and their schemes and policies. Some argue that this was the case in Samaguri, where voters voted in favour of the state government’s development projects.

Second, there was growing resentment among local Congress supporters towards Rakibul Hussain, especially after his son, Tanzil Hussain, was announced as the party's candidate. Tanzil, long positioning himself as the natural heir to his father’s political legacy, faced an uphill battle due to a significant backlash from several of Rakibul’s old loyalists. Many of these long-standing supporters were not ready to accept Tanzil’s leadership. Some even accused him of arrogance, distancing himself from the grassroots and relying heavily on his father’s legacy to secure votes.

One of the most significant revolts came from Mazibur Rahman, Rakibul's strongman in Singimari Zila Parishad. Rahman’s defection was a major blow to Congress, as Singimari is home to the highest concentration of Muslim voters, whose allegiance is often the deciding factor in elections.

Rahman’s influence helped catalyse a shift in the political landscape, leading to a massive surge of support for the BJP, particularly in Singimari, a Congress stronghold. This move by Rahman effectively fractured the Muslim vote that had previously been a reliable base for Congress, giving the BJP a crucial advantage.

Samaguri constituency is divided into four Zila Parishads: Ambagan, Samaguri, Bajia, and Singimari. Each Zila Parishad has a unique voting pattern, with Ambagan and Samaguri being Hindu-majority areas where the BJP traditionally performs well. Bajia is a mixed constituency with a slight edge toward Congress, but it has been known to swing based on the overall mood of the electorate. Singimari, with its high concentration of Muslim voters, has historically been a key battleground in Samaguri. In previous elections, Congress had benefited from the loyalty of Singimari’s minority voters, tipping the scales in their favour.

In the 2024 by-election, however, the dynamics changed dramatically. The defection of Mazibur Rahman and the resentment against Tanzil Hussain played a significant role in shifting the voting pattern in Singimari. Instead of the usual support for the Congress, the BJP saw a "saffron surge" in this area, significantly contributing to Diplu Ranjan Sarmah’s victory. This shift in Singimari, along with the BJP’s strongholds in Ambagan and Samaguri, gave Sarma a commanding lead.

Another critical factor that worked in Diplu’s favour was the delimitation exercise before the 2024 elections. Delimitation, which redraws electoral boundaries, had resulted in several thousand voters from the Old Samaguri constituency being shifted to the new Kaliabor and Barhampur constituencies. These constituencies are strongholds of the ruling alliance, with both Kaliabor and Barhampur having historically supported the BJP-led coalition.

The shifting of around 20,000 minority voters, primarily from the Old Samaguri area, to these new constituencies altered the electoral calculus in Samaguri. The voters traditionally loyal to Congress in the Old Samaguri area now found themselves aligned with constituencies where the BJP had a much stronger presence.

This reconfiguration led to a natural shift in their allegiance as well, as voters in these areas began to identify more closely with the incumbent party, the BJP. As a result, the BJP’s message resonated with these voters, who saw supporting Diplu Ranjan Sarmah as a way to align themselves with the future political direction of the region.

Beyond the electoral arithmetic, one of the defining features of Diplu Ranjan Sarmah’s campaign was his popularity. especially among the youth and the educated voters.

His promise to establish civil services coaching centres in each of the four Zila Parishads — Ambagan, Samaguri, Bajia and Singimari — particularly resonated with the aspirational youth of the constituency.

The Broader Shift in Assam’s Political Landscape

Given the context and constituency of Diplu Ranjan Sarmah’s victory, it may well symbolise a broader shift in Assam’s political landscape. His success could only be the first case in a trend of the BJP securing wins in regions once dominated by Congress.

The 2024 by-election result demonstrates that the Congress's traditional strongholds are no longer as secure as they once were.

As Diplu takes office as the newly elected MLA, he might be representing a fresh chapter in the region’s political history.