Missed The Exit Polls? Here Are The Ten Key Highlights

Exit polls for 2024 general elections are out. Except for minor deviations in numbers, the broader periphery under which these polls can be summarised is the same. 

Here are top 10 key takeaways from exit polls.

Kerala fortress shows a crack

Most exit polls project that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get 1-3 seats in Kerala. In fact, Axis My India poll has put NDA’s vote share to a whopping 27 per cent, nearly 70 per cent more than the 2019 vote share.

Though it is not enough to beat the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), it is definitely enough to push the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to third spot in the state. A result on predictable lines has the potential to kickstart the much-awaited electoral end of the dominance of left parties in the state.

BJP penetrates deep in Tamil Nadu

Axis My India poll has predicted that NDA may win 2 to 7 seats with a 25.16 per cent vote share. BJP is alone expected to bag 2 to 4 seats. India TV-CNX has also given predictions of NDA getting 5 to 7 seats. Meanwhile, Today’s Chanakya puts this number between 6-14 for NDA.

For BJP, which could win only 1 seat between 2014 and 2019, it is an extremely positive sign, buttressed by the fact that their own initiatives — a committed and increasing cadre base under K Annamalai and cultural initiatives to connect with Tamil culture on a grand national level are bearing fruit.

Jagan’s Decline In Andhra Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh had voted for both general and assembly elections. For general elections, most exit polls — India TV, ABP C-voter survey and News 18 Mega Exit Poll among others forecast a landslide victory for NDA. The total seats bagged by the alliance consisting of BJP, TDP and JSP are expected to be between 19 and 25.

For assembly elections, most exit polls are on similar lines. TV5 Telugu predicts that NDA will get 161 out of 175 seats, while NDTV India puts this number between 111 and 135. However, the Centre for Politics and Policy Studies and Aaraa Poll Strategies Private Limited have predicted YSRCP to retain power with 94-105 seats.

Aam Aadmi Party set for decimation?

Delhi and Punjab were supposed to be two strongholds for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Exit Polls say otherwise. In Delhi, most exit polls indicate that BJP may end up sweeping all 7 constituencies. AAP had fielded 4 candidates while its partner Congress had fielded 3.

Both partners became rivals in Punjab, benefitting the BJP in exit polls. While AAP is expected to get 0-1 seats, BJP is projected to get 2 to 4, with 26 per cent vote share. Even in Haryana and Gujarat, AAP seems to be out of the race.

BJP gets Hooda setback in Haryana

In 2024, the BJP is highly unlikely to repeat the miracle of winning 10 out of 10 seats from Haryana in 2019. Exit polls predict that BJP may have to contend with 6-8 seats while INDI Alliance is expected to get 2-4 seats.

Turns out that anti-incumbency against the Khattar government, farmers’ and wrestlers’ protests have been milked by the opposition — specially father-son duo of Bhupinder and Deepender Hooda. The last minute decision to field Manohar Lal as an MP candidate does not seem to have done much damage control. With assembly elections lined up, time is critical for BJP.

Didi Is In Trouble In Bengal

More than a decade of bloodied struggle between the BJP and Trinamool Congress (TMC) is expected to bear fruit for the former now. Axis My India exit poll indicates that the party may chip away 26 to 31 seats out of 42 in the general election. Other exit polls have projected BJP’s seat share between 21 and 26.

TMC is expected to come second with 11 to 17 seats.

For the last decade, BJP has been trying to break Mamata Banerjee’s strong hold over the state. It came close in the 2019 general election and 2021 assembly election, but could not muster the required number.

NDA paying for its complacency in Bihar

Exit polls indicate that NDA may get 29-33 seats in Bihar — BJP is projected to get 13 to 15 seats while JD(U) may turn out to be the biggest loser with only 9 to 11 seats. On the other hand, INDI Alliance is expected to get 7-11 seats in the state.

While people still by and large trust PM Modi, there is a huge anti-incumbency wave against NDA MPs sweeping the state. Tejaswi’s carefully crafted idea of stealing credit for job creation is also a worrying trend for the coalition.

Bihar is going for assembly elections in 2025 and if corrective measures are not taken, returning of RJD to power is not a distant reality.

BJP stands its ground amidst the volatile political atmosphere in Maharashtra

Exit polls have predicted BJP to be the single largest party in Maharashtra with 20+ seats out of 48. In the 2019 election, BJP won 23 out of the 25 it contested. Its then partner Shiv Sena is now bifurcated and the camp led by Eknath Shinde got the party's name and symbol.

On the other hand, Sharad Pawar’s NCP also met a similar fate with Ajit Pawar taking a faction with him.

Both factions joined hands with the BJP amidst turmoil. Despite that, only BJP seems to be acing ahead. The second position in the exit polls is occupied by the Uddhav Thackeray-led camp with 11+ seats — a decline from 18 seats it secured in 2019.

Overall spread increased

Exit polls indicate that the BJP has spread its net in every nook and corner of the country. While the party is already strong in the Hindi heartland and northeastern states (in recent years), it lacks solid punch in southern and eastern states.

With expectations of a significant increase in vote and seat shares in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Odisha, the party is on its way to becoming a truly national one. Sure, exit polls do indicate some loss in Bihar and Haryana, but they are under control at the moment.

‘Abki baar 400 paar’ was not a 'jumla'

India Today-My AxisIndia poll has predicted NDA’s victory in 361-401 seats. India TV-CNX and Jan Ki Baat have also predicted numbers close to 400.

Exit polls vindicate PM Modi’s and BJP’s refusal to bog down whenever the probable impossibility around this number was brought in the discussion. Though the final results are yet to come, setting such a lofty target certainty had a positive impact on the NDA cadre, which might yield the desired result.