MP, Chhattisgarh: What The Field Of Play Looks Like On Polling Eve

Friday, 17 November, will see polling in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh.

In Chhattisgarh, 70 of the 90 seats will go to polls. 20 seats have already voted on 7 November. This is the second and final phase of elections in the state.

In MP, all 230 seats of the assembly will vote in a single-phase election tomorrow.

Here's how the political field looks in both states on the eve of polling.

Chhattisgarh:

-Closer election than what appeared two months ago.

-Advantage still with Congress but BJP has recovered a lot of ground.

-Voter expectations undergone change in last five years. Political narrative and electoral choices determined disproportionately by 'freebies' now.

-BJP's poll promise of giving all married women in state Rs 12,000 annually has had a visible impact on the election narrative.

-BJP appears to have recovered from its all-time low of 33.6 per cent vote share of 2018. Party also expected perform well in areas it got wiped out from last time.

-Both Congress and BJP expected to get their core votes behind them.

-No single narrative working pan-state. Neither strong anti-incumbency nor strong support for Congress.

Madhya Pradesh:

-Neck and neck fight between BJP and Congress. Election too close to predict.

-Unlike previous elections, people not vocal about their preferences this time.

-Fatigue factor stronger than anti-incumbency. Too much of 'same old' in Madhya Pradesh from the CM to the local MLA. Fatigue factor distributed among them.

-BJP's decision to not declare a chief ministerial candidate appears to be proving correct. BJP voters in different regions appear to be rallying behind the local senior leader in anticipation of the leader becoming CM.

-Like Chhattisgarh, BJP has covered a lot of ground in the last six months.

-Credit for that goes to Modi factor, his campaign plus organisational management of Amit Shah.

-Women voters appear to be tilting towards BJP. Shivraj Singh Chouhan's 'Ladli Behna Yojana' making its mark in the voters' minds.

-Howlers in ticket distribution committed by both sides. Net-net though, BJP ticket distribution has been better than that of Congress.

-BJP's on-ground campaign has been better planned, better co-ordinated and more forceful than that of Congress.

-On results day, we might have a situation where the BSP has more MLAs in Madhya Pradesh than in Uttar Pradesh. In UP, it currently has a single MLA. In MP, it is expected to win anything between 2-5 seats.