RJD's 2025 Journey Won't Be Easy, Even With New Strategy

Keeping Bihar Assembly Election (AE) 2025 in mind, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has begun its populist announcements.

On 11 September 2024, Tejashwi Yadav, RJD chairman and son of Lalu Yadav announced that if his party comes to power, Biharis will receive 200 units of electricity for free.

The announcement was made during the Karyakarta Samvad Yatra of the party.

Yadav said that the people of the state are suffering from glitches in smart meters and soaring electricity bills. “Despite having a double-engine government and decades of BJP/NDA rule, the most expensive electricity in the country is available in Bihar,” he added.

Reacting to Yadav’s announcements and allegations, Niraj Kumar, Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) spokesperson, highlighted that Bihar is the first state where smart prepaid meters are being used.

He also said that Nitish Kumar government’s electricity subsidy exceeds the budget provisions made for the sector during previous terms.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), JD(U)'s partner in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), dismissed Yadav’s announcement, claiming it was made “in thin air” since Tejashwi knows that he is not coming to power.

While the NDA may deny its impact, it is true that high cost of electricity is a problem in rural Bihar. During my election coverage, I found it to be the second most common complaint people have with the government, the first being Kumar’s tap water scheme.

It would be wrong to conclude that this is a one-off announcement by RJD. In the wake of the upcoming election, Yadav is expected to make more such announcements, much like what Arvind Kejriwal does in Delhi.

Through this announcement, Yadav not only seeks to cajole voters but also highlights a recurring problem in Bihar.

In the last few months, Yadav has left no stone unturned in attacking the incumbent Nitish Kumar government.

Whether it is a temporary issue like seasonal food inflation or larger ones like collapsing bridges in Bihar, Tejashwi releases statements on almost every issue.

For instance, on the Patna High Court setting aside the Kumar government’s 65 per cent reservation move, Yadav urged Kumar to "fall at the feet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi" and ask him to place the laws in the ninth schedule of the Constitution, so that it becomes tougher for the judiciary to intervene.

Similarly, on the law and order situation, Yadav comes up with his own bulletin documenting crimes that occurred during a certain period (varying from one week to one month).

In fact, this is one point that RJD spokespersons regularly bring up to attack the government and dilute the 'jungle raj' narrative.

The idea behind these attacks is to dissociate Tejashwi Yadav’s deputy chief ministership period from the current situation in the state.

Along with freebies and an ultra-aggressive approach towards the government, Yadav is also weaving a new caste combination for the upcoming election.

In an attempt to move away from RJD’s legacy of having Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) voters on its side, Yadav is courting the Kurmi-Kushwaha — the second-largest Other Backward Classes (OBC) group in Bihar.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the Indian National Democratic Inclusive (INDI) Alliance gave 20 per cent of its tickets to candidates from the Kurmi-Kushwaha community.

Yadav also appointed Abhay Kumar Kushwaha as head of the party’s parliamentary committee. This is part of his new political equation — M-Y-BAAP. The acronym BAAP used by Tejashwi refers to 'bahujan', 'agada' (forward), 'aadhi aabadi' (women), and 'poor'.

For 'aadhi aabadi', RJD is now putting more emphasis on sending its female spokeswomen to television debates — indicating a change in the mentality of the party whose 'jungle raj' era showed little respect for the dignity of women.

Similarly, to win agada (forward) community votes, Yadav is banking on projecting himself as a job provider. Moreover, eight district in-charges of his party belong to the forward community. Jagadanand Singh, the chief of the state unit, is also a Rajput.

Though these steps show an enthusiasm for politics on Tejashwi’s part, the probability of them changing electoral outcomes remains slim.

Take, for example, Yadav’s M-Y-BAAP combination. The Kurmi-Kushwaha communities are traditionally known for voting whichever side Nitish Kumar tilts towards (Kumar himself is a Kurmi, and the community holds him in high regard for making them a powerful political force).

In addition, Kumar’s labharthi (beneficiary) politics and Upendra Kushwaha’s presence in NDA will further make it tough for Tejashwi to repeat the miracle of this year’s general election (GE).

For women voters, Tejashwi has different challenges. Women in Bihar have benefited the most from both Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi’s policies. From giving them bicycles to enforcing the liquor ban, Kumar has made efforts to make life easier for women.

Similarly, the 'forward community' is still reeling from the systematic hate campaign run against them during the RJD era. While it is true that many of them voted for RJD in the 2024 general election, that had more to do with discontent with the NDA than Tejashwi’s image makeover attempts.

If the community wants to teach NDA a lesson, political wisdom suggests that they would be more inclined to vote for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj than RJD (In GE, Jan Suraaj was not a structured political unit).

Yadav’s strategy of attacking the Nitish Kumar government also seems more designed to appeal to his own support base than anything else. This is apparent in the way his current Yatra is progressing.

In the Yatra, which was supposed to bridge the communication gap between the party's top brass and its cadre, Yadav is busy releasing statements against the incumbent government. These attacks have gained momentum following reports of RJD cadre joining Jan Suraaj.

Of all the aforementioned strategies, the electricity freebie holds the highest probability of success, as exorbitant electricity bills are forcing rural Biharis to either terminate their connections or sleep without fans.

Yadav’s freebies will have to be substantial enough to counterbalance Kumar’s welfare policies. Short public memory against Kumar could also work in his favour.

It is a welcome change for the people of Bihar that RJD is changing track, but expecting it to yield results in a short interval may be unwise. Perhaps, a long-term goal is in mind.