BJP’s Ally May Not Win Muslim-Majority Dhubri This Time, But It’s A Long-Haul Project For The Party — A Ground Report

The numbers are stacked very heavily against the BJP-backed Zabed Islam (he’s contesting on a ticket of BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad) in Assam’s westernmost Dhubri Lok Sabha seat. 

Dhubri, which has a 61-kilometre-long riverine border with Bangladesh to its southwest, is a Muslim-majority seat; Muslims form a little over 74 per cent of the electorate here. 

Most of the Muslims of Dhubri are illegal migrants, or descendants of illegal migrants, from East Pakistan and then Bangladesh. As such, they are deeply suspicious of the BJP, and anyone associated with the saffron party. 

But this demographic disadvantage has not deterred the BJP from giving it all that it has got in the election campaign. The party leadership knows that Zabed Islam may well lose this year’s Lok Sabha elections, but that is no reason for not campaigning hard for him. 

This is evident from the fact that top BJP leaders, including Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, have made multiple trips to Dhubri to campaign extensively for Islam. 

Dhubri — the town as well as the remote chars (islands formed by alluvial deposits of the Brahmaputra) — is awash with flags, posters and buntings of both the BJP and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). 

The reason is that the BJP is prepared for the long haul in Dhubri. In fact, this Lok Sabha seat is the laboratory for the BJP’s crucial experiment to reach out to Muslims and get their support. 

District BJP leaders told Swarajya in private that the party is trying very hard to convince the Muslims that it is not against them. 

“We are setting an important narrative: that the BJP is the natural party for development and progress for all, irrespective of caste, creed or community. This positive message has to be repeated constantly to convince Muslims that the BJP is not against them and it is to their advantage to support the BJP,” said senior BJP leader Bimal Oswal. 

BJP leaders admit that it will take time, but the party is prepared to wait. “We are backing a good candidate. Zabed Islam has the right political lineage, his father was a well-loved leader of this entire area. Zabed is a sober, articulate and responsible politician, and is liked by all sections of the people,” said Oswal. 

Satish Borpujari, a BJP ideologue of the state, told Swarajya that the project to win over Muslims is a long-term one. “It won’t happen overnight, it will take a few years of sustained campaigning. But the ground is fertile for doing so in Assam because a lot of development has happened in the state,” said Borpujari. 

This is exactly what the BJP leaders and cadres are doing in Dhubri: showcasing various development and welfare schemes and projects that have been implemented and that have benefited the masses to buttress their claim that the BJP is only interested in sabka vikaas. 

“I’m driving home the message at all meetings and mass contact programmes, as well as during my door-to-door campaigning. I’ve been telling the Muslim voters here that when the Union and state governments implement welfare schemes like ‘Orunodoi’ (monthly doles to women), Ayushman Bharat (health insurance), PMAY (free houses for the poor) and scholarships for poor students, everyone benefits. The government does not discriminate against any section,” the BJP-backed Lok Sabha candidate Zabed Islam told Swarajya. 

He said many Muslims are appreciating this message. “They are realising the truth in what I’m saying. I’m also asking them to compare the BJP’s track record in government over the past eight years in the state and ten years (at the centre) with the Congress’ track record over 60 years and decide for themselves if the BJP-AGP coalition government in the state and the BJP-led NDA at the centre has done more for them in these few years than the Congress that ruled for so many decades,” said Islam. 

Islam and the BJP campaigners are also pointing out to Muslims that no communal clash has taken place in Assam over the past eight years since the BJP-AGP coalition came to power in the state. The insurgency has also been rooted out from the state. 

“Peace spurs progress and development. Peace is a prerequisite for prosperity. And all the people of Assam, including Muslims, have benefited from this peace that prevails in the state,” said Islam. 

This message has to be constantly repeated over a period of time for Muslims to realise the truth behind it, said Maitreiye Phukan, a sociologist who teaches at Gauhati University. “If these messages are harped on repeatedly over a period of a few years, then Muslims will start having a re-think,” Phukan told Swarajya. 

This ‘win Muslims over’ project of the BJP also involves promoting young, educated and moderate leaders of clean image from the Muslim community. Zabed Islam is a case in point. 

“Muslims harbour a negative perception about the BJP since the community has been told these past couple of decades that the BJP is a Hindu majoritarian and anti-Muslim party. Congress has created this perception as part of its divide-and-rule policy. The Congress has always pitted Hindus and Muslims against each other and instigated communal riots. The challenge before the BJP is to correct this negative perception,” said Phukan whose husband Pijush is closely associated with the BJP. 

Restoring Dhubri’s lost glory

Dhubri had been a thriving trading and industrial centre since the British days due to its unique location. 

The Brahmaputra, after flowing through Assam, takes a southern turn in the eastern part of Dhubri district before flowing into Bangladesh from the southwestern part of the district. 

The depth of the river at Dhubri allowed sea-faring vessels to sail right from the Bay of Bengal upstream through the Meghna River and then the Brahmaputra (the Ganga becomes the Padma River after entering Bangladesh and then joins the Brahmaputra to become the Meghna river) right up to Dhubri.

From Dhubri, goods and passengers would be transferred to smaller vessels for transportation further upstream to various river ports of Assam. 

Thus, Dhubri was a major river port with a flourishing ship-building industry. Ships from Kolkata would sail down the Hooghly, skirt the (Bay of Bengal) coastline and then sail up the Meghna to reach Dhubri. Dhubri and surrounding areas were a major jute-growing belt and ships would carry raw jute all the way to jute mills in Bengal. 

This riverine route was operational till the Indo-Pak war of 1965. Dhubri was also well connected by rail to Dhaka and through Rangpur to Malda and Kolkata. It sat at the centre of a network of highways that extended like its tentacles to the rest of Assam, East Bengal and North Bengal. Dhubri’s traders also used to cater to Bhutan. 

“Dhubri was a prosperous town with a thriving economy. A lot of trade used to happen here. The port was a very busy one and at least five large ships would dock here every day. There were a few ship-building units and the entire riverfront was lined with warehouses. Dhubri attracted traders and fortune-seekers from places as far away as Rajasthan,” recalled Sudhin Roy, former headmaster of the Dhubri Municipal School.  

Dhubri, he added, even had an airport (Rupsi) where flights from Kolkata, Dhaka and Upper Assam used to land every day. “I think there were six or seven flights every day,” Roy told Swarajya.

Dhubri’s decline, said Roy, started when rail, road and river links with East Pakistan were snapped in 1965. The shipping industry faced an abrupt closure and many businesses and even wealthy traders went bankrupt overnight. Ship-building units closed down, movement of trains stopped and gradually, even Rupsi airport became idle. 

Dhubri lost all its former glory and many people migrated out of the town. Its stature fell when new districts — Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon and Goalpara, and later South Salmara-Mankachar — were carved out of it. 

The sharp economic decline of Dhubri also led to its social decline. Dhubri became infamous for frequent communal disturbances and riots. The crime graph also started rising and cross-border crimes like cattle smuggling, drug and human trafficking and gun-running became rampant. 

The fertile char areas — huge tracts of lands formed by alluvial deposits of the Brahmaputra — attracted poor Muslim peasants from East Pakistan and then Bangladesh. Infiltration was very easy through the porous riverine border that is impossible to guard. 

Dhubri’s demographic profile changed drastically and within a short period of time, the percentage of Muslims increased from 48 per cent (in 1961) to 70 per cent by the turn of the century. The presence of such a large number of poor, uneducated and conservative Muslims made Dhubri the most backward district of Assam. 

The BJP is promising a revival of Dhubri’s fortunes. “This is not an empty promise. The river route through Bangladesh has already opened and the first ship from Kolkata sailed through Bangladesh and then Dhubri to upper Assam. Passenger cruise ships have also started passing by and Dhubri will become a major river port again,” said Gopal Prasad, the vice president of the district BJP. 

New rail lines are being laid and trains powered by electric locomotives will run from Dhubri to the rest of the state and North Bengal. Efforts are on to revive the rail link between Dhubri and Bangladesh. 

“Construction of the Rs 5000 crore Dhubri to Phulbari (in Meghalaya) bridge is proceeding at a fast pace and will be completed by 2027. It will be the longest river bridge in India spanning 19.2 kilometres and will kickstart the economy of the region. The Rupsi airport has been made operational."

"Road communication has improved drastically in recent years and new roads within the district to connect Dhubri with other districts, including Cooch Behar (in Bengal) are being built. All this is happening because of the efforts of Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Sarma,” BJP district president Prosenjit Dutta told Swarajya. 

All these projects, said Dutta, will restore Dhubri’s lost glory. And this is also a major campaign plank of the BJP-AGP combine. 

Dhubri’s rejuvenation will benefit all, and since Muslims are the majority in the district, it will benefit Muslims the most. This is the message that is also being conveyed to the Muslim electorate. 

“The Congress was in power for so long but did nothing for Dhubri. As soon as the BJP came to power in Delhi and then in Assam, a slew of projects were initiated. All these will benefit Dhubri and Muslims will be the primary beneficiaries since Muslims are in the majority here,” said Zabed Islam. 

“We are eagerly awaiting the completion of all these projects and I hope to see Dhubri’s turnaround while I’m still alive,” said Sudhin Roy, 84. Many other residents of Dhubri are excited about the changes that will take place once all the infrastructure and connectivity projects are completed. 

The rejuvenation had started working

Rejjak Ali, 51, is a third-generation resident of Dhubri. His grandfather settled down in the town during British rule and started a small business.

“I have heard many stories from my father and grandfather about how prosperous Dhubri was. I’m glad that projects are underway to rejuvenate Dhubri’s economy and make it prosperous again. If the BJP succeeds in doing so, it will gain the support of most Muslims here,” Ali told Swarajya. 

“Yes, the work that the BJP has done in the last eight to ten years is many times more than what the Congress did in sixty years. But many Muslims still harbour apprehensions about the BJP. I think the BJP will need to continue with the good work, keep communal forces at bay and maintain peace and communal harmony. If that happens, within a few years, large sections of the Muslim community will start supporting the BJP,” said Ali, owner of a popular restaurant located near the district police headquarters.

Ali admitted that he has been an AIUDF supporter, but has become a BJP supporter now. 

A few other Muslims that Swarajya spoke to admitted that the BJP governments at the centre and the state have started many projects and rolled out many welfare measures that are benefiting everyone, including the Muslim community. 

Mubarak Mollah, 26, a sweeper engaged on a contractual basis by the Dhubri Municipality, says he has personally benefited from the BJP’s welfare measures.

“I benefited from the health insurance scheme. I have also got a house under PMAY and am also getting free rations. The BJP is doing good work, but I’m still suspicious of the party. Let’s see for some more time. If all this (good work) continues and if the BJP can prove through its actions that it is not against Muslims, I will start supporting the BJP,” he told Swarajya. 

The BJP’s long-term project to win the support of Muslims seems, thus, to be on the right track.

The poll arithmetic

The BJP has a committed support base among the Hindus and Sikhs, who form a little less than 20 per cent of the Lok Sabha constituency’s 26.42 lakh strong electorate. This translates into a solid chunk of about 5.2 lakh votes. 

The voting percentage among Hindus is generally about 70 per cent and, thus, a BJP candidate or a candidate supported by the BJP is assured of about 3.7 lakh votes. 

Going by records of the past parliamentary elections, the winning candidate in Dhubri usually polls between 5.5 lakh to 6 lakh votes. 

If the BJP can win over even 10 per cent of the Muslims of Dhubri, it can win the seat. To make its task easier, the party also has to ensure that at least 90 per cent of the Hindus cast their votes. 

This — getting more Hindus to exercise their franchise and winning over 10 per cent of the Muslims — is not a difficult task. Nor will it take very long. If the BJP’s project (to win over Muslims) remains on track, the 2029 Lok Sabha polls may well see the party winning this Muslim-majority seat for the first time ever.

And that will change the political dynamics of not just Assam, but the rest of the country as well. 

This report is part of Swarajya's 50 Ground Stories Project - an attempt to throw light on themes and topics that are often overlooked or looked down. You can support this initiative by sponsoring as little as ₹2999. Click here for more details.