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Brexit: A Reality Showdown More Interesting Than A Netflix Original!

Boris Johnson and Brexit — will it happen on 31 October?
Snapshot
  • Boris Johnson is bent on Brexit — deal or no-deal. The MPs in the parliament think otherwise.

    While any deal would be preferred over no deal as far as Brexit is concerned, there’s no consensus on what that deal may look like. Exciting times indeed for observers.

Most millennials have seen Netflix Originals like House of Cards but a far more interesting plot in unfolding in Britain.

We all know that the United Kingdom (UK) decided to put an end to its agreement with the European Union (EU) as the country voted for Brexit — now the billion-dollar question is will it happen on the 31 October?

UK’s current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, was the poster boy for the ‘leave EU’ campaign and the fact that he replaced Theresa made it apparent that Brexit will be a reality.

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He continues to insist that the UK will exit EU on 31 October with or without a deal. But, here’s the catch: most Members of Parliament don’t want to leave the EU without a deal.

The fact that Boris is heading a minority government doesn’t help him in such a situation. In fact, a bill that requires Boris Johnson to seek for an extension to the UK’s departure date to avoid a no-deal Brexit is pending royal assent.

The problem is that even after months of political developments they’re still back to where they started from. That is, while any deal would be preferred over no deal as far as Brexit is concerned, there’s no consensus on what that deal may look like.

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It is precisely here where they’ve got a problem. The current terms of arrangement between UK and EU are perhaps the best as it ensures that UK has its own sovereign currency and retains most of its immigration controls.

It’s hard to imagine any deal that could be better than the one currently in place even as most MPs are weighing the current situation against proposed deals, all of which have led to deadlocks.

No agreement is likely to be better than the current deal but having an agreement in place before exiting EU is a better option than a no-deal Brexit. So, ironically, even after the change of guard, Britain back to square one with MPs preventing a no-deal Brexit while their PM Johnson is committed to Brexit by the 31 October.

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The fact that UK’s Prime Minister has to first negotiate a deal with the EU and then come back to a house where he lacks a majority puts him in an uncomfortable situation.

Therefore, his push or rather commitment towards a no-deal Brexit must be seen as a sign of what he’s willing to do in order to make Brexit a reality.

While the British parliament wants the date of exit to be deferred till a new agreement can be drawn up, the fact remains that Europe’s leadership too is concerned with these developments as it realizes that UK’s domestic politics is only increasing the uncertainty regarding Brexit, which is affecting the economic growth of the region.

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There are many possible scenarios that are likely to unfold within the next couple of weeks that will determine whether Brexit becomes a reality.

As a first scenario, Boris pushes for a no-deal Brexit and the EU decides to not extend the deadline. In this case, the most sensible decision would be for the parliament to agree to whatever deal is available, resulting in Brexit with a deal on the 31 October.

The second scenario is the UK parliament decides to proceed with impeachment of the Prime Minister leading to more chaos amidst trade negotiations. In this situation, nobody knows how the EU will react but it is far more likely to defer the date of exit given that it will have an immediate negative impact on the region’s economic prospects.

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The third scenario is the EU decides to offer an extension and the parliament decides to hold a fresh referendum on Brexit. This time more people, especially the younger voters will come out and vote against Brexit.

The outcome of this scenario is very uncertain; in case people vote for Brexit then MPs will have to accept whatever deal is available and go forward. If, however, and this is very likely, the vote is against leaving the EU then UK goes back to the pre-Brexit vote situation.

The fact that Boris Johnson has even requested the Queen to suspend parliament so that it can’t veto Brexit shows how serious he is about leaving EU. His strong posturing may just nudge the parliament enough to agree to a last-minute deal.

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However, one must wonder if the people of Britain still want a Brexit.

Irrespective of whichever of the many possible scenarios become a reality, we can be rest assured that the next couple of weeks will be interesting for those who’ve followed British politics and the Brexit vote closely. Better than a Netflix Original, wouldn’t you say?

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