China Warns Taiwan Ahead Of President Tsai Ing-wen's US Trip, Threatens Retaliation

The Chinese government's Taiwan policy body warned Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, that her meeting with officials of the United States would be a provocation, causing instability in the Taiwan Strait, and vowed to retaliate strongly.

On Wednesday (29 March) morning, Tsai received a warning before departing on a 10-day trip where she is expected to meet US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, in California.

Her visit is important for Taiwan's foreign relations, but Beijing's assertive foreign policy has restricted President Tsai's flexibility.

Tsai, departing from Taipei, stated that Taiwan's commitment to venturing globally will amplify. She emphasized that Taiwan will consistently uphold their independence and democratic values, as well as, make valuable contributions to the international community.

Tsai will spend two nights in New York en route to Guatemala and Belize, two of the 13 remaining countries that recognize Taiwan. She will also stay for two nights in Los Angeles upon her return.

Next year, Tsai's final term will end. On Thursday (30 March), she will be awarded the Global Leadership Award from the Hudson Institute, an award previously given to leaders like Ronald Reagan and Shinzo Abe.

Under Tsai, short US visits have evolved beyond mere courtesy for Taiwanese presidents to reflect Washington's growing involvement with Taipei, now serving as extended stopovers.

China asserts ownership of Taiwan and warns of military action if it does not accept its authority.

In August of last year, Beijing conducted remarkable military drills and launched missiles above Taiwan for the first time as a response to a visit from then-US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi to Taipei.

Pelosi was the first speaker in 25 years to visit Taiwan after speaker Newt Gingrich made the trip in 1997.

McCarthy delayed his trip to Taiwan after Tsai recommended meeting in the US, to avoid a potential negative response from Beijing, according to the Financial Times.

Senior Biden administration officials said Taiwan officials transiting through the US were routine and warned China not to use the upcoming visit by Tsai as a pretext for aggressive or coercive activities aimed at Taiwan.

Officials confirmed no alteration to the United States' 'One China' policy recognizing Beijing as China’s single government.

The Americans would want the status-quo to remain for them to prolong their strategic ambiguity. Recently, the White House was quick to retract after Biden declared that the US would militarily intervene, if China were to make the move to capture Taiwan.

There is also the problem of committing to a war, in case of a Chinese attack, given there is no exit strategy for the United States.

Taiwan's defence ministry is ready for any Chinese threat during Tsai's trip, even in a "worst-case" scenario. No signs of Chinese military movements were detected prior to her departure.

The trip will also be critical in the context of the TSMC, given the Americans would want the company to manufacture there, using the subsidies under the CHIPS and Science Act, cutting its operations in China.