What Sheikh Hasina’s Fall From Power Means For India

Sheikh Hasina Wazed’s fall from power in Bangladesh will have serious consequences for India. 

Hasina, who had been in power in Bangladesh since January 2009, was instrumental in keeping Islamists at bay in her country and also evicting militants from North East India who had been provided safe refuge in Bangladesh by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and military regimes in the past. 

Here are the adverse fallouts (for India) of Hasina losing power in Bangladesh: 

Resurgence of Islamists

Islamists in Bangladesh will have a free run in the country now. Islamists and Islamic terror groups have always had India in their crosshairs and will whip up anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh.

The Islamic terror groups in Bangladesh have been active in exporting terror to India. Many Islamic terror modules have come up in Bengal and other parts of the country. These modules will now get more encouragement and resources. 

Endangerment of Hindus

Hindus in Bangladesh will now face fiercer attacks from Islamists who blame Hindus for being agents of India and cast doubt on their patriotism. This will result in more Hindus fleeing Bangladesh to seek refuge in India. 

A fresh influx of Hindu refugees from Bangladesh into states like Assam and Tripura can trigger protests by the indigenous people in those states.

Indian interests in Bangladesh will be jeopardised

India has myriad interests in Bangladesh, and with Hasina in power, India was executing or planning a number of connectivity and transit projects through Bangladesh to North East India. The fate of all these projects hangs in the balance now. 

Bangladesh may scrap the transit agreements that Hasina had signed with India in the face of opposition from hardliners and Islamists in her country. 

China and Pakistan will gain ground in Bangladesh

China and Pakistan will gain a lot of ground in Bangladesh at the cost of India. Hasina has always been considered pro-India, and her overt leanings towards India have been intensely resented by her critics. 

There will be a pushback against India and Indian interests in Bangladesh by these critics, who are most likely to get the reins of power in that country now. 

Pakistan will, once again, make Bangladesh its happy hunting ground to target India from the east. Pro-Pakistani elements within the Bangladeshi establishment, including its army and bureaucracy, who are rabidly anti-Indian, will become powerful. 

North East militancy may get a fresh lease of life

Though peace deals have been signed with almost all militant groups in the North East, there are some hardline remnants of these groups who are opposed to the peace deals and are biding their time. 

If an anti-India regime comes to power in Bangladesh, as seems to be the case now, these hardliners will find ready refuge and even material support in Bangladesh, which has sheltered them in the past. 

Under such an anti-India regime with close links to Pakistan, North East militants will be able to regroup in Bangladesh and will get support, including arms and training, in Bangladesh as they had in the past. 

This spells grave trouble for India. 

Severe diplomatic setback

Hasina’s resignation is, thus, very bad news for India. More so since India has, displaying poor judgement, put all its eggs in one basket. 

India has been backing Hasina to the exclusion of all other parties, including the BNP, whose overtures towards India have been repeatedly rebuffed by New Delhi. 

India does not have good ties with even parties like the Jatiya Party, which is most likely to become powerful now due to its birth ties with the Bangladesh army. The Jatiya Party is set to play a key role in the interim government that will be formed in Bangladesh with the backing of the country’s armed forces. 

India will, thus, find itself cut off from the new power structure in Bangladesh. That is a severe diplomatic setback for New Delhi.