Turning The Page: Oli’s Fourth Term Signals Pro-India Stance For Nepal

Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli is set to take over as Nepal’s prime minister for the fourth time Sunday (14 July). But unlike his past tenures, he is unlikely to adopt an anti-India, pro-China stance this time.

Oli, chairperson of the Communist Party of Nepal–Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the second-largest party in the country’s Parliament with 78 members of Parliament (MPs), sealed a deal with Nepali Congress (NC) chairperson Sher Bahadur Deuba on 2 July to form the next government. The NC is the largest party in Parliament with 89 MPs. 

After finalising the deal with Deuba, Oli snapped ties with the Communist Party of Nepal–Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), whose chief, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, is the incumbent prime minister. The withdrawal of support by the CPN-UML reduced the coalition to a minority. 

Dahal went in for a floor test and lost it by a huge margin Friday (12 July). Nepal’s president, Ram Chandra Paudel, then invited the NC and CPN-UML to stake a claim to form the government.

Oli is scheduled to meet Paudel and provide him with the proof of support from a majority of the MPs. He is likely to be sworn in Sunday afternoon. 

Soon after finalising the agreement with the NC to form the next government, Oli reached out to India to allay apprehensions that he would again pursue an adventurous foreign policy and play off China against India, as he had done in the past. 

Oli conveyed to New Delhi that India’s concerns would be honoured, and he would not allow China to increase its footprint in Nepal. He also assured New Delhi that cultural, economic, and diplomatic ties with India will be strengthened and Indian interests and investments in Nepal will not only be protected but also prioritised.

Turning The Page 

Oli is keen on shedding his pro-China, anti-India image, and has, over the past year, sent many feelers and emissaries to New Delhi. He has conveyed to India that he wants good ties between Nepal and India. 

CPN-UML seniors have also been making all the right noises. Party general secretary Shankar Pokharel told Swarajya that “everyone realises that Nepal cannot prosper without India.”

“Nepal and India are bound by close economic and cultural ties, and it is foolish to imagine that bilateral ties can be downgraded or our ties with China can be enhanced at the cost of those with India,” said Pokharel. 

CPN-UML Vice Chairman Bishnu Prasad Poudel, who is likely to be inducted as a senior cabinet minister in the new government, told Swarajya that Nepal cannot progress without Indian help and cooperation.

“The organic ties between the two countries will be strengthened now, and we will see a new era in bilateral ties,” he said. 

Rajan Bhattarai, who heads the CPN-UML’s foreign policy department, said that pursuing an anti-India policy would be “self-defeating” for Nepal. 

“China is also our major neighbour, and we need to have good ties with China, but not at the expense of our organic and deep-rooted ties with India. India and Nepal share a deep bond that cannot be broken. Nepal needs India as a partner and mentor in its development and progress,” he said.

Another senior CPN-UML leader, Hari Prasad Upreti, said he firmly believes Indo-Nepal ties will soar under Oli this time. “The mistakes of the past will not be repeated. Everyone has realised that ignoring India’s interests and sensibilities will not work in South Asia,” said Upreti.

Upreti was defence minister in the Dahal-headed coalition government where the CPN-UML was a partner till last week.

Oli’s assurance to New Delhi, said a senior officer in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), was backed by the NC. A couple of top leaders of the NC told their friends in the Modi government that the NC would be the major partner in the next government and it would ensure that ties with India remain on course and are improved. 

New Delhi, it is learnt, was kept in the loop by both the NC and CPN-UML leadership when talks between the two parties to formalise an alliance were reaching the final stages late last month. 

After the agreement was finalised on 2 July, Oli’s emissaries reached out to New Delhi and allayed apprehensions that Nepal would veer towards China once again. CPN-UML leaders assured India that Oli is keen on India’s help and cooperation. 

Blockade Blues

Oli was considered pro-India till he became prime minister for the first time on 12 October 2015. 

“By that time, the unofficial blockade of Nepal by India had started, and that severely affected Nepal. The blockade caused a grave humanitarian crisis, with crippling shortages of food, medicines, and fuel. Sentiments against India were running very high and, though India denied any hand in the blockade that started in September (2015), everyone in Nepal knew that India had imposed the blockade,” said a senior NC leader who did not want to be named. 

The unofficial blockade was widely perceived in Nepal as India’s retribution against Nepal for enacting a new Constitution that the people of Madhes (the long stretch of territory in Nepal along the border with India) felt would disempower them politically. 

India had wanted Nepal to redraft the Constitution by factoring in concerns and demands of the Madhesis, but the country’s political leadership refused to do so. It triggered an agitation by the Madhesis, who blocked the transport of goods from India to other parts of the country, especially the hills. 

India is believed to have encouraged the blockade and, allege Nepali politicians, refused to heed even calls by other countries to send in emergency supplies of food, medicines, and fuel to Nepal. 

“Oli was forced by circumstances to turn towards China, which was only too happy to help. The blockade was disastrous for India-Nepal ties, which nosedived. Since then, Oli and many other politicians have looked to India with unconcealed suspicion and antipathy. Though we did a course-correction and stepped up assistance to Nepal, memories of the blockade still linger in Nepal,” said a former Indian ambassador to Nepal. 

Though Nepal took a sharp turn towards China since 2015, many in the country soon realised that Beijing’s help is not altruistic and that China has its own sinister agenda. 

China’s aggressive push for the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and a few Chinese-built mega projects in Nepal like the Pokhara International Airport turning into white elephants have triggered a rethink in Nepal about China. 

Many in Nepal now believe that China is trying to ensnare the Himalayan nation in a debt trap. 

India has also stepped up its diplomatic efforts in Nepal in recent years and has managed to overcome the disastrous consequences of the 2015 blockade. 

Oli, who is all set to become the country’s next prime minister, has also realised that his earlier anti-India stance will do his country no good. Hence, he is keen on a course-correction on his own part.

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