Bihar: A Lowdown On Four Seats Going To Polls On 19 April

The campaign around the first phase of general election (GE) in Bihar ended with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Gaya on 16 April 2024.

On 19 April, Gaya, Jamui, Nawada, and Aurangabad, constituencies close to Jharkhand will go to the polls. The fate of the 38 candidates will be sealed on that date.

Let us look at these constituencies and their electoral prospects.

Jamui

Jamui is arguably the most high profile constituency of the first phase. PM Modi chose Jamui as a launchpad for his 2024 election campaign in Bihar. Currently, it is represented by Chirag Paswan, who has shifted his base to Hajipur.

Arun Bharti, Chirag’s brother-in-law is replacing him as the candidate from Lok Janshakti Party Ram Vilas (LJPR). On his head lies the burden of quelling people’s discontent about the underperformance of Chirag Paswan, whose electorates had handed over the victory by more than 2.4 lakhs in 2019. 

Bharti also faces the challenge of being an outsider, an issue raised by his rival Archana Ravidas, a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate. 

However, Bharti’s concerns around Ravidas’ challenge are somewhat alleviated by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) fielding Sakaldev Das, who belongs to the same community as her. Another comforting thing for Bharti is that from 2009 (when the constituency was formed), only candidates with National Democratic Alliance (NDA) affiliations have won from here.

With 89 per cent votes, Hindus, especially Dalits (around 20 per cent of the population), and Yadavs (15-20 per cent) play crucial roles. Other significant voting blocs include Kurmi, Koeri, and Dhanuk communities.

Four out of six assembly seats lie with NDA, which will also be a decisive factor, especially the grip of Janata Dal-United (JDU) on extremely backward classes (EBCs) and other backward classes (OBCs).

Nawada

Reputationally speaking, Nawada is one of the most important constituencies for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2024. It is one of the few strongholds of Bhumihars, the landowning community which Tejashwi Yadav has been trying to sway away from BJP towards RJD.

Varying estimates suggest that Bhumihars account for 22-30 per cent of voters in the constituency, the same as Yadavs. Dalits (around 20 per cent) and Muslims (between 5-10 per cent) are other major voting blocs. Kushwahas (being 2-5 per cent) not having fixed political affiliation also tend to grab centre stage during elections.

The problem for NDA, especially BJP is exacerbated by anti-incumbency against Chandan Singh, an LJP candidate, whom BJP supported in 2019 by replacing its own popular leader Giriraj Singh. Chandan Singh is said to be not even interested in continuing with the work begun by his predecessor.

In 2024, BJP is fielding Vivek Thakur, a Bhumihar and son of senior leader and former Union Minister C P Thakur. The junior Thakur has been a party worker for 28 years. But, RJD candidate Shrawan Kushwaha is raising the issue of Thakur being an outsider.

Both candidates face an additional challenge besides competing against each other. Thakur contends with Bhojpuri Singer Gunjan Singh, a Bhumihar, while Kushwaha grapples with Vinod Yadav, a former RJD secretary, who may sway votes.

Gaya

Gaya is a reserved seat with more than 30 per cent Dalit voters, the majority of whom belong to the Manjhi community. Yadavs, with a 15-18 per cent share, Paswans with a 4-6 per cent share, Bhumihars and Rajputs having a combined share of around 15-18 per cent, and Muslims with a 12.8 per cent share in the population are other voting blocs.

Despite not having an anti-incumbency factor, Gaya presents a challenge on its own for ruling NDA. In 2024, the seat is gone to Jitan Ram Manjhi of Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), who lost by a massive 3 lakh votes to Vijay Manjhi in 2019. 

Manjhi’s rival is RJD’s Kumar Sarvjeet, whose father Rajesh Kumar had pipped him in the 1991 elections. Sarvjeet took to active politics after his father’s assassination in 2005 and is currently a member of legislative assembly (MLA) from Bodh Gaya. On the other hand, Manjhi also rose through the ranks, even becoming Bihar’s Chief Minister in 2014.

Despite that Manjhi has not been able to win over people’s trust in Gaya. Late beginning of his campaign for 2024 added another complexity to his winning prospects. Manjhi’s campaign caught momentum only after 5 April 2019 with stalwarts like Nitish Kumar and PM Modi himself campaigning for him.

Reach of government schemes, the people of Gaya being happy with PM Modi and 14 candidates on seat leading to the division of votes could emerge as decisive factor in 2024.

Aurangabad

Famously known as Chittorgarh of Bihar for the predominance of Rajputs, the constituency is locally termed as a bastion of Sushil Kumar Singh. Singh won this seat in 1998, 2009, 2014 and 2019 as Samata Party, JDU and BJP candidates respectively. 

A quarter of Aurangabad voters belong to the general category, 70 per cent of whom are Rajputs. OBCs (20 per cent), EBCs (23 per cent), and SCs (20 per cent) comprise around 63 per cent of the voter base, while Muslims’ share is around 10 per cent.

Till now, no non-Rajput candidate has been able to secure victory from this seat, a testament to the fact that the sheer number and social status Rajputs enjoy puts them in a decisive position.

RJD has fielded JDU turncoat Abhay Kushwaha from the seat, betting on Kushwahas, Yadavs and Muslim votes with a combined vote share around 25 per cent.

On the other hand, Sushil Kumar Singh is expected to gain more foothold among non-forward voters due to the fact that JDU, LJPR and HAM are aligned with NDA.

Though traditional caste loyalty to political parties is still there, two more issues have entered the foray - development and Hindutva.