India’s Recovery Rate Numbers Suggest That The Country Has Put Up A Strong Fight Against Coronavirus

Dr Shweta Bahl

Jun 23, 2020, 01:51 PM | Updated 01:51 PM IST

Covid-19 tests.
Covid-19 tests.
  • Even though plenty of challenges still remain, looking at the significant improvement in Covid-19 recoveries, one can conclude that India until now has done well in combating the spread of the virus.
  • Since the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared Covid-19 to be a public health emergency, most of the countries have left no stone unturned to get prepared to fight the deadly virus.

    Despite this, the daily cases of Covid-19 do not seem to fall globally.

    According to WHO, as of 23 June 2020, the Covid-19 cases have crossed 88 lakh. The situation in India is no different. As of 23 June 2020, India has 440,215 cases, which includes 14,011 deaths.

    The Covid-19 pandemic has raised the question of the efficiency of the healthcare system not only in developing or under-developed countries but also in developed ones. Even the most advanced countries are struggling to keep their population from being affected. The other major challenge is the recovery of the people who have been infected by this virus.

    However, in the case of India, the beacon of hope comes from the fact that, so far, it is doing a commendable job in terms of the number of recovered cases.

    On 9 June 2020, the number of recovered patients (135,206) exceeded the number of active cases (133,632) for the first time. Post this, there was no looking back.

    In fact, the difference between recovered cases and active cases has been increasing since then. As of 23 June, while the number of active cases stands at 178,014, the number of recovered cases is 248,190.

    Hence, in two weeks, India has been able to manage to increase the difference between recovered and active cases from 1,574 to 70,176. The fact that the number of recovered patients exceeds that of active cases and the difference is continuously rising suggests that India’s trajectory is on the right path.

    Also, India has witnessed a significant improvement in recovery rate, which is calculated as the proportion of recovered cases in total confirmed cases. Almost two months ago, recovery rate was even less than 10 per cent.

    But as of 23 June 2020, the rate has increased seven folds and reached an all-time high of 56 per cent.

    In other words, today, out of 100 confirmed cases, 56 people have already recovered. This is a significant achievement that needs a mention.

    India has not only outnumbered itself, but it is in a better position even when compared to other nations.

    For example, when India crossed 4 lakh cases, the number of recovered cases stood at 227,756, which was way higher than that of the US (21,875), Brazil (166,647), and Russia (171,883) when they had hit the 4 lakh mark.

    Since the outcome of active cases is unknown, many sceptics have argued that the right way to calculate the recovery rate is to measure the proportion of people that have recovered from the total closed cases.

    Considering this way of recovery rate also points out that India has performed better than other countries.

    While India has 95 per cent recovery rate (that is, out of 100 closed cases, 95 are the recovered cases), the corresponding proportion for the developed nations like the US (89 per cent), Canada (88 per cent), Italy (84 per cent), and so on is way less.

    Despite being the second populous country, the trend, so far, suggests that India took all the steps within the stipulated time to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

    From starting universal screening for international arrivals as early as on 3 March 2020 to conducting the biggest and most stringent lockdown, India has shown an unwavering commitment towards combating the spread of the disease.

    India has established more than 900 Covid-19 hospitals, more than 2,000 Covid health centres, and more than 7,000 Covid care centres.

    Therefore, India was not scared. Instead, it was prepared to fight the pandemic, which made India's recovery rate better than other countries.

    Even though plenty of challenges still remain, looking at the significant improvement in Covid-19 recoveries, one can conclude that India until now has done well in combating the spread.

    The author is a PhD in economics from IIM, Indore.

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