What The Papal Conclave 2025 And An American Pope Could Mean For Evangelist Pressures In India

As the world's attention turned once more to the Vatican, the College of Cardinals gathered in the solemn seclusion of a papal conclave to elect a new leader for the Catholic Church.

Among the papabili, those deemed "pope-able," are a diverse group of contenders, reflecting the evolving face of a global institution. The first five frontrunners were Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70), Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69), Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67), Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76), and Pierbattista Pizzaballa (born in Italy, 60, now serving as Patriarch of Jerusalem).

While the Italian presence remained strong, the candidacies of Tagle and Turkson highlight a notable shift: two of the five leading contenders hailed from outside the traditional European heartland. The emergence of Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar as a longshot candidate further underscores this transition.

Indeed, the prospect of an Asiatic Pope, even if though it had not materialised in this election, is becoming less and less a distant reality and more and more a fast approaching event—a question not of if, but of when. That non-white Popes could emerge as strong contenders in their own right, should not make us oblivious to the complex and at times dark and troubled currents that have shaped the changing components of Catholic religious hierarchy.

Let us move from the current Papal Conclave. There is an inherent inequality in the Conclave. The Catholic Church is today a global religious empire with over 1.4 billion believers spread over all continents with movable and immovable assets. The papal conclave doesn't just choose a spiritual leader for the "empire of souls" — it also selects a very real, worldly head who oversees an immense global network of institutions, land assets, and highly trained personnel.

Vatican may be the world’s smallest nation but its empire is far stronger and enduring than any of the empires built during colonial expansion of the West. It is this powerful responsibility — selecting the next leader of both spiritual and temporal influence — that is entrusted to the College of Cardinals.

However, an examination of this high powered body reveals a significant disparity between the geographical distribution of the world's Catholic population and the representation within this electoral body.

In the 2025 conclave, approximately 1.39 to 1.4 billion Catholics have entrusted the election of their spiritual leader to 135 voting Cardinals. The overall average works out to roughly one Cardinal per 5.3 million Catholics.

But this global average masks sharp regional disparities.

Europe, with a Catholic population of around 280 million, has 54 voting Cardinals — about one per 5.2 million faithful.

Asia (including the Middle East) has 156 million Catholics and 23 Cardinal electors, which means one Cardinal represents every 6.78 million Catholics.

Africa, home to 280 million Catholics, has only 17 voting Cardinals — a ratio of one Cardinal for every 16 million believers.

The most striking imbalance is in South America. Despite having approximately 290 million Catholics — the largest share for any region — it has just 13 voting Cardinals, equating to one for every 22 million faithful.

The Conclave of 2025 thus undeniably reflects a historical bias.

Examining the demographic realities of global Catholicism in relation to the composition of the College of Cardinals reveals an even starker picture of representational imbalance. Consider the five nations with the largest Catholic populations:

--Brazil, home to approximately 130 million Catholics, constituting 9.32 percent of the global Catholic populace, holds a mere 5.19 per cent representation in the Conclave through its seven Cardinals.

--Similarly, Mexico, with its 110 million Catholics accounting for roughly 8 per cent of the world's Catholic population, is represented by only five Cardinals, a modest 3.7 per cent of the electoral body.

--The Philippines, where 93 million Catholics comprise 6.69 per cent of the global total, possesses a mere three Cardinals, translating to a 2.22 per cent representation.

--Conversely, the United States, with its 74 million Catholics representing 5.32 per cent of the global Catholic population, commands a notable ten Cardinals, an over-representation of 7.41 per cent.

--Italy, with 48 million Catholics and a 3.49 per cent share of the global Catholic population, holds a significant 17 Cardinals, approximately 13 per cent of the Conclave.

The data starkly illustrates an over-representation for both the United States and Italy, while the other three nations – two from South America and one from Asia – experience a corresponding under-representation, highlighting a persistent skew in the electoral dynamics.

It’s worth remembering that even this current composition marks an improvement over the past — a legacy of the Papacy, which has long held near-absolute authority within its vast empire of belief. Since the post-colonial era, the Vatican has made a conscious effort to shift away from its overwhelmingly European image and project a more globally representative leadership. Pope Francis, in particular, played a key role in diversifying the College of Cardinals, appointing members from underrepresented regions across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Yet, as these numbers show, even with immense authority and resources, institutional reform takes time — and significant disparities remain.

If the white smoke from the Vatican would have heralded the ascent of Luis Antonio Tagle to the papacy, a remarkable image makeover would have occurred.

The elevation of an Asian Cardinal as Pope could have been a pivotal moment for the Catholic Church, aligning with its strategic goals for evangelism in the region. During his visit to India in November 1999, Pope John Paul II emphasised Asia’s importance to the Church’s future, declaring at a Mass in New Delhi that the continent would be the focus of the Church’s evangelization efforts in the third millennium, symbolically referring to it as the ‘next planting of the cross’. Appointing an Asian Pope as the 21^st century reaches its first quarter’s end -around 2025- could have served as a powerful catalyst to advance this vision.

The Catholic Church is currently navigating its internal disparities while pursuing a mission that calls for renewed focus and structural realignment to further its evangelical ambitions. Historically, the Church evolved from an institution heavily infused by elitist and noble bloodlines even until the mid-20^th century, to one increasingly dominated by Italian representation, and now to an entity striving for a truly international character.

Even the hold of die-hard Papal supporting aristocracy (called black-aristocracy) had become almost non-existent mostly reduced to symbolic acts. One of the last Popes to have come from nobility was Pope Pius XII (1939–1958). Born Eugenio Maria Giuseppe Giovanni Pacelli, he was also controversially called ‘Hitler’s Pope’. However the dominance of aristocratic families in Papacy became very rare. The importance in selecting a Pope was more associated with his pastoral work and his ability to further the agenda that the Church has set itself.

In this context, the strategic manoeuvres of the Catholic Church during the Cold War exemplify its ability to adapt and execute its mission on a global scale against seemingly unfavourable odds. The election of a Polish pope, John Paul II, was a deliberate move that enabled the Church to play a dual role: partnering with the United States to support the Solidarity movement in dismantling Communist rule in Poland, while in South America, its theologians embraced liberation theology—a blend of Catholic doctrine and Marxist principles. With regard to former, the Pope from Poland went to the extent of collaborating with the CIA, sharing the goal of dismantling communism. Their partnership focused on supporting the Solidarity movement in Poland, with the CIA providing covert funding and intelligence, while John Paul II offered moral and spiritual leadership, inspiring Poles to resist peacefully.

This duality allowed the Church to position itself as a bastion of strength for both anti-Communist advocates and those drawn to Marxist ideals, culminating in a significant triumph when Poland, under John Paul II’s papacy, re-embraced Catholicism and rejected Communism.

This historical context of strategic adaptability seemed to frame the ongoing transformations in the 2025 papal conclave. The Church has made substantial strides to reshape its image which has been that of Eurocentrism and being a conservative monolith toward a more globally representative institution. Italian influence has notably declined from 24 per cent of cardinal-electors in 2013 to 13 per cent in 2025, while representation from Asia and Africa has marginally increased, reflecting a broader demographic alignment and strategic planning.

In Tamil Nadu today, one undeniable truth stands out: the Catholic Church wields unparalleled socio-political, economic, and cultural influence over the lives of ordinary Tamils, surpassing the impact of traditional or modern Hindu institutions, including the RSS. Prominent political figures such as Seeman of Naam Tamilar Katchi and actor-turned-politician Joseph Vijay, alongside influential strategist Rev. Jagat Gaspar and the rising Sahayam IAS, are all Catholics, shaping the state’s political landscape.

The Church’s reach extends deeply into the cultural sphere through institutions like Loyola College in Chennai, which has moulded generations of professionals in Tamil Nadu’s audio-visual media, from the film industry to television panel discussions, visibly influencing their output. Moreover, the Catholic Church has demonstrated its economic clout by swaying industrial decisions, notably orchestrating public protests to divert a port project from Tamil Nadu to Kerala. Whether acknowledged or not, the Catholic Church’s capacity to effect tangible change in the life of an average Tamil far exceeds that of traditional religious leaders or contemporary Hindu organizations, cementing its role as a formidable force in the state, even without anyone consciously recognising it.

Hindu traditional institutions and modern movements might argue they differ fundamentally from the Catholic Church, emphasizing their spiritual rather than evangelical nature. However, the Church’s evolution offers valuable lessons in institutional adaptation to contemporary challenges. Even for spiritual organizations focused on self-preservation rather than global expansion, studying these dynamics can provide critical insights into navigating an increasingly hostile environment and ensuring relevance in a rapidly changing world.

The new Pope Leo XIV, who was Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost belonging to the Order of Saint Augustine (OSA) is from the United States and a white Caucasian. He is less outspoken on contentious issues than his predecessor Pope Francis and is said to be more theologically rigorous though he was also said to be concerned with social justice but not as vocally as Francis. He has also had his share of controversies with regard to the way he handled child abuse cases.

Even as white smoke was coming out of the chimney in the Vatican, signifying the end of the Conclave, Forbes magazine webpage stated that 'Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin surged dramatically in papal betting odds.' Yet an American Pope has been elected. He was not even among the first five prominent contenders. So the only reason seems to be that the Church should have decided to strengthen its hold again in the Western world. With the right-wing ascendancy in the US which also favours and rides on a Christian revival, the Church perhaps sees a possibility of it strengthening itself institutionally.

Prevost’ has a quarter century of experience as a missionary and bishop in Peru (1987–2012, 2014–2023). This gives him deep ties to South America. He had served as Bishop of Chiclayo, a diocese with significant poverty and migration challenges, and worked with marginalized communities, aligning with the Church’s 'preferential option for the poor.' The Vatican’s diplomatic network, combined with Prevost’s personal ties and now his natural clout in North America as an American Pope, can facilitate backchannels to address migration crises, such as the Venezuelan exodus (over 7 million displaced by 2025), which affects Catholic communities across Colombia, Peru, and Brazil.

Whatever the reasons, now the Hindu observers of Catholic strategies can feel a bit relieved. It seems the Church has given a high priority to the United States and the Western world. For a time period India and also Global South in general may feel less evangelical pressure from the Catholic Church.