Projection Mismatch? FY19 GDP Growth Estimated At 7.2 Per Cent, Lower Than RBI’s 7.4 Per Cent

According to the latest estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to grow by 7.2 per cent for the financial year ending on 31 March 2019 (FY).

Though the growth rate for the current fiscal is substantially higher than last year’s (FY18), which stood at 6.7 per cent, it is still marginally lower than Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates. In its latest monetary policy, the central bank had projected that the economy would grow by 7.4 per cent.

It should also be noted that in the first half of FY19 (April-September period), the economy grew by 7.6 per cent. However, estimates suggest a growth rate of 6.8 per cent for the second half of (October-March period), thus dragging the growth trend downwards for the whole year.

Manufacturing, farm sectors shine

The growth trends for three crucial sectors - manufacturing, farm and construction - remain positive. While manufacturing is expected to register an 8.3 per cent growth rate in FY19, it only grew by 5.7 per cent last year.

On the other hand, the farm sector is set to grow by 3.8 per cent in 2018-19 compared with 3.4 per cent in 2017-18. The construction sector is also likely to grow at 8.9 per cent compared with 5.7 per cent expansion in last year.

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