US Presidential Election 2016: The Polls That Got It Right Before Election DayUS electoral map (BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images)

A poll that seemingly projected the Brexit result correctly predicted Donald Trump as the winner of the United States presidential election. Poll director Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute, which is a think tank based in Washington and London, claimed:

The new poll finds Trump establishing a clear lead over Clinton, 50 percent to 45 percent, among decided voters. The outcome nevertheless remains in doubt, as an unusually large number of undecided voters (10 percent) could yet swing the election Clinton’s way, although their eventual, disproportionate support for Trump is the more probable development… If these late deciders end up voting for Trump…he could trounce Clinton by as much as 10 points in the popular vote.

The poll results were derived from automatic landline and cell phone contact with about 1,300 likely voters from 3 November to 6 November, based on which Trump was getting support from independent voters among other constituency groups.

Democracy Institute noted that though Clinton is very popular with minority voters, Trump has double the support among African Americans than Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican party nominee.

The IBD/TIPP poll, which also has a reputation of predicting largely accurately, gave Trump a two-point national edge over Clinton. Earlier, statistician Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog stated that because of several undecided voters, polling error risk is higher than normal.

Other renowned polling sites like Hypermind gave Clinton a 74 per cent chance of winning the White House while the New York Times’ Upshot model gave Clinton an 84 per cent chance of winning the election.

An Appeal...

Dear Reader,

As you are no doubt aware, Swarajya is a media product that is directly dependent on support from its readers in the form of subscriptions. We do not have the muscle and backing of a large media conglomerate nor are we playing for the large advertisement sweep-stake.

Our business model is you and your subscription. And in challenging times like these, we need your support now more than ever.

We deliver over 10 - 15 high quality articles with expert insights and views. From 7AM in the morning to 10PM late night we operate to ensure you, the reader, get to see what is just right.

Becoming a Patron or a subscriber for as little as Rs 1200/year is the best way you can support our efforts.

Become A Patron
Become A Subscriber