As Shiv Sena With 56 Seats Decides To Meet Governor On Its Own, Here’s What’s Going On In Maharashtra Politics

The Uddhav Thackeray led Shiv Sena in a possible bid to mount pressure on its current “frenemy” the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to meet the Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari on Monday (28 October).

As per a report by Times of India, both the BJP and Shiv Sena are expected to separately meet with the Governor and may discuss government formation. Shiv Sena’s senior leader Diwakar Raote is expected to lead his party’s delegation to the Governor.

Just yesterday (27 October) the Shiv Sena had sounded another ominous warning by proclaiming that it now holds the “remote control of power”, despite winning less seats than in 2014.

Electoral Dynamics In Maharashtra

The BJP and Shiv Sena had decided to contest the polls in a alliance which comfortably secured a tally of 161. This figure may go up to at least 176 as at least 15 independents or small parties have assured their support to Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

The BJP has ended up with 105 seats. While a commendable performance, it is falling way short of the majority mark of 145 and needs to secure the support of Shiv Sena. Even taking support of independents and small parties won’t be enough to secure the required numbers - sans Shiv Sena.

What Does Shiv Sena Want

Soon after the assembly results became clear, Uddhav Thackeray publicly announced that it expects the BJP to honour the 50-50 sharing formula which will see it getting a chief minister for a period of 2.5 years.

The party claims that this arrangement was agreed upon with BJP president Amit Shah back in February, following which it agreed to play second fiddle during the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls.

Now ahead of the government formation the Shiv Sena wants a written assurance from the BJP that it will honour this agreement.

Various reports have indicated that the party is pushing for a chief ministerial position for first time MLA and son of Uddhav - Aditya Thackeray.

The Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray has also threatened that his party may opt for “other options” if the BJP does not pay heed to its demand. These “other options” have been speculated to be an unprecedented alliance with Congress and the NCP.

Options Before The BJP

The option which will surely bring Shiv Sena on board is agreeing to its 50-50 power sharing formula but may not go down well with its support base and even Fadnavis, who currently stands head and shoulders above Aditya or any potential Shiv Sena candidate.

The BJP has also won almost double the seats as that of Shiv Sena and in light of this equation, the party is very unlikely to agree to a Shiv Sena Chief Minister.

The second option which has also been suggested by NDA ally Ramdas Athawle, is to coax Shiv Sena to accept a Deputy Chief Ministerial position for Aditya. Athawle has also suggested that Sena may be given a ministerial berth at the centre to bolster its standing in national politics.

The third option is to brazen it out and form the government without explicitly taking the support of the Shiv Sena. This will throw the ball in Shiv Sena’s court on the day of the vote of confidence. The BJP may be able to cobble through a majority if Shiv Sena abstains.

The fourth option is to secure the outside support of NCP, as it managed back in 2014 when its alliance with Shiv Sena lay in tatters.

The final option is to call out Shiv Sena’s bluff and let it explore the “other options” which hold a high risk of alienating Sena’s core support base.

BJP president Amit Shah is likely to meet Uddhav on 30 October after meeting the newly elected party MLAs. It remains to be seen whether BJP’s strategist-in-chief manages to secure a breakthrough.