BJP To Retain Four Out Of Five States Going To Elections In 2022; AAP Will Emerge As Single Largest Party In Punjab: Survey

Less than eight months remain for Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh (UP) assembly elections. Goa and Manipur also go to polls next year. Ahead of the polls, the findings of the ABP-CVoter-IANS opinion poll have been released showing the mood of the voters in all these states.

Currently, Congress is in power in Punjab while the BJP is in power in Goa, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, Aam Aadmi Party which has successfully created a bastion in Delhi has been campaigning extensively in all the four states.

AAP is being called a prominent force in Punjab, and is now planning to cement its standing in Goa, UP and Uttarakhand.

The sample for the poll is close to 80 thousand people in five states covering 690 assembly seats. The survey was conducted by independent international polling agency CVoter.

Punjab

Punjab is likely to witness a hung Assembly, with AAP emerging as the single largest party in the state in the 2022 assembly polls, as per the survey.

The poll responses reflect that BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal are no more in contention for power and the battle for the throne of Punjab is between INC and AAP.

Incumbent Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh as well the Congress party as a whole is facing strong anti-incumbency. In the latest round of opinion poll, around 65 per cent of the respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance; and 60.8 per cent of the respondents expressed strong dissatisfaction with the performance of state government. Similarly, 51 per cent respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the sitting MLAs of their constituencies.

The survey predicts Congress to win a 28.8 per cent vote share; AAP to grab 35.1 per cent votes; SAD to secure 21.8 per cent votes; and BJP to win 7.3 per cent vote share in Punjab.

Out of the total strength of Punjab assembly of 117 seats, AAP is projected to grab 51 to 57 ; Congress may finish a strong second by winning 38 to 46 seats; SAD is likely to grab 16 to 24 seats; and BJP may notch 0 to 1 seats.

For AAP, the lack of a strong chief ministerial face remains a challenge. While 21.6 per cent of the respondents said that Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is their preferred choice to be the next chief minister of the state, only 16.1 per cent consider Bhagwant Mann, AAP's face in Punjab as the preferred choice for the top job in the state. Around 20 per cent stated that Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Badal was their most preferred choice for the post of the chief minister.

According to the survey data, price rise and farmers' issues are key issues of concern for the electorate of the state.

Uttarakhand Assembly Elections 2022

According to the C-Voter Survey, BJP will get 43 per cent votes, Congress 23 per cent, Aam Aadmi Party 6 per cent and others 4 per cent in the Uttarakhand assembly elections 2022.

Out of the total 70 assembly seats, the ruling BJP may retain power by winning 44-48 seats, Congress 19 to 23 seats, Aam Aadmi Party 0 to 4 seats.

The survey shows that in Uttarakhand, 30 per cent of people want Harish Rawat as the chief minister, 23 per cent support Pushkar Singh Dhami, and 19 per cent Anil Baluni for the chief minister's post.

Goa Assembly Elections 2022

The survey predicts BJP to get 39 per cent votes, Congress 15 per cent, AAP 22 per cent and others 24 per cent in the Assembly Election 2022.

BJP can retain power in Goa by winning 22 to 26 seats, Congress may get 3-7 seats, AAP 4-8 seats and others may win 3-7 seats out of the total 40 assembly seats.

Manipur Assembly Election 2022

In Manipur, the BJP may get around 40 per cent votes while the Congress may bag 35 per cent vote share, NPF 6 per cent and 17 per cent votes may go to others parties/independents.

Of the total 60 seats in Manipur, the BJP may get 32-36 seats, the Congress 18-26, the NPF 2-6 and the other 0-4. Therefore, the BJP may retain power in Manipur as well.

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2022

The UP elections are being seen as a precursor to the 2024 general elections. The survey predicts the incumbent BJP to remain in power in the state.

In UP Election 2022, the BJP may get 42 per cent votes, the Samajwadi Party may get 30 per cent votes, BSP 16 per cent, Congress 5 per cent and others 7 per cent.

The BJP may retain power in the 403 assembly house by winning 259-267 seats, SP may get 109-117, BSP 12-16, Congress 3-7 and others 6-10.

The survey showed that incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath continues to be the most preferred choice for the post of chief minister, much ahead of Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati and Priyanka Gandhi.

When asked about their preferred choice for the post of Chief Minister, 40.4 per cent of the respondents said Yogi Adityanath, while 27.5 per cent opined in favour of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav. Less than 15 per cent of the respondents said they want to see BSP supremo Mayawati as next chief minister, and only 3.2 per cent said they wanted to see Priyanka Gandhi as the CM.

Around 44 per cent of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the performance of incumbent chief minister, 18.1 per cent said they were satisfied to some extent with his performance.

The survey showed unemployment and spiraling inflation are key issues of concern for the electorate at the moment.