How BJP Has Gained Momentum In Madhya Pradesh With Women Welfare Schemes: A View Through Opinion Polls

Most of the opinion polls are giving an edge to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections scheduled for 17 November.

The recently released NDTV-CSDS Lokniti Poll reveals that 38 per cent of the surveyed voters prefer the incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, while only 34 per cent prefer Congress' Kamal Nath.

This poll also shows that while male voters of the state are equally split over the Congress and the BJP, women voters prefer the BJP. 46 per cent of the women responders said they would vote for the BJP while 44 per cent said they would vote for the opposition party.

Political observers note that women-oriented welfare schemes like Ladli Behana Yojana which gives a monthly allowance to women and the promise of gas cylinders at Rs 500 is the reason for this support.

Similarly, another pre-poll survey by Pollster India reveals that the BJP enjoys substantial support from women across the state. The survey predicts that the BJP will win around 125 seats and the opposition Congress will win around 97 seats.

A slew of women-oriented welfare schemes implemented by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan combined with the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has provided momentum, giving BJP a 5per cent edge over the Congress, the survey revealed.

India TV-CNX Opinion Poll also gives a clear majority to the ruling BJP with an expected victory over 119 seats, while the Congress and Others (including Independents) are expected to win 107 and four seats respectively.

Projections for vote share indicate that the BJP is expected to receive 46.33 per cent, the Congress is anticipated to secure 43.24 percent, and 'Other' parties are likely to garner 10.43 percent votes.

In the 2018 elections, the BJP received 41.02 percent and won 109 seats, while the Congress obtained 40.89 percent winning 114 seats, and 'Other' parties secured 18.09 percent of the votes.

According to this survey, 42.5 per cent prefer Chouhan as CM while 39.61 per cent prefer Kamal Nath. The highlight is that 47.01 per cent of respondents trusted BJP's welfare schemes (guarantees), while only 40.66 per cent had trust in Congress' guarantees.

However, the ABP-CVoter snap poll gives a majority to Congress with 124 seats, while the BJP is likely to win around 105 seats. The estimated range of seat projection for the Congress is 118 to 130, while for BJP it is 99 to 111.

According to the snap poll, the Congress is projected to secure 44.3 per cent of the total votes, while the BJP is expected to receive 42.1 per cent of the votes in the 230-member assembly. The BSP's vote share is estimated at 2.2 percent, and other parties are likely to account for approximately 11.4 percent of the total votes.

Thus, with the differing opinion polls, one has to wait for 3 December till the results are announced. However, one thing is clear that the BJP has gained momentum with the elections nearing with its apt candidate selection and welfare schemes.

This can be understood from earlier opinion polls. For example, India TV-CNX Opinion Poll gave 115 seats to BJP in October which has now increased to 119.

Even the Times Now-ETG opinion poll which is giving an edge to the Congress has increased BJP's tally since October. In October, it projected BJP to win 102-110 seats and Congress 118-128 seats.

However, its latest projections of November reveal that the Congress is likely to win 112 to122 seats while the BJP is expected to win 107-115 seats.