Maharashtra: 3 Days, 7 Rallies, Why Modi Is Going All In

BJP brings its big gun

My colleague Krishna Dange has been traveling in Maharashtra for the last couple of weeks. He hates the heat but enjoys the interviews, meetings and rallies.

According to him, the state BJP unit had requested and got extra rallies of PM Modi allotted for the state. The PM is now doing 7 rallies in just 3 days.

But why the extra attention?

Alliances, defections, local leaders: A state of chaos prevails in Maharashtra polity.

• Two main local parties - the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party have split in the last 2-3 years with one half of each side going to the Mahayuti BJP-led alliance.

• The split has disturbed several caste and local level equations as many are unsure of who went where! Sometimes even voters are left scratching their heads.

• Denial of seats to certain sitting MPs has also caused displeasure among the leadership.

• Several VIP politicians have joined the BJP or the Mahayuti - how they will perform is yet to be seen.

Hindutva vs Maratha caste agitation: The agitations led by Manoj Jarange and caste census promises by Congress have led to intense polarisation in the already fragmented state polity.

• Sharad Pawar is trying to portray BJP led Mahayuti as a anti-Maratha coalition, silently trying to benefit from Jarange's Maratha OBC reservation agitation.

• Marathas make up more than 30% of the state. How much they will buy into Jarange's agitations is yet to be seen.

Bring Modi, bring clarity: Maharashtra sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha - the saffron side wants to take no chances with the chaos at multiple levels.

• The state assembly elections will follow later this year - the BJP is keen to set the momentum now itself.

• "Considering the appeal of PM Modi that cuts across caste lines, we are hoping that his rallies will prevent the division of votes on caste-lines as much as possible", a party insider said.

Akola - A Microcosm of Indian polity

It took a little convincing from us but we managed to get Krishna Dange to spend a few days in Akola.

The constituency in Vidarbha is a perfect microcosm of many things:

- a neo-Buddhist Ambedkarism that is not Hindutva friendly,

- Pasmanda split off from Muslim vote bank,

- continued decay of rural Indian economy,

- and a fragmented OBC vote.

Neo-Buddhism Ambedkarism. Prakash Ambedkar - the grandson of Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, contests here as a Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) candidate.

• The VBA has a strong presence in Akola and has been controlling the Akola District Council for more than 20 years now.

• VBA's vote split has caused Congress to lose this seat since 1989. However, when Congress backs Ambedkar he can manage to win - as was the case in 1998 and 1999.

• SCs are 20% of Akola, a large chunk of them subscribe to Neo-Buddhist philosophies.

Prakash Ambedkar's social engineering. He tries to identify and cultivate local leadership from poorer sections of OBC and FC castes as well in addition to his SC base.

• One of the VBA’s senior-most co-ordinator here is a Brahmin named Nilesh Deo.

• Disgruntled BJP leader Narayan Gavhankar's son is also on Ambedkar's side now.

Local SC Narrative: There appears to be a strong belief among some sections of SC communities that the BJP will in-fact amend the constitution to remove reservations.

• "The present BJP-led union government is trying to change the Constitution written by Babasaheb. They have a Manuwadi mindset and they want to abolish reservation enshrined in the constitution."

OBC And Muslim Votes Are Split. The Muslim vote is split on Pasmanda - Non-Pasmanda line.

• Pasmanda Muslims are open to voting for Prakash Ambedkar.

• Meanwhile, Maratha-OBC votes are also split along Kunbi - Non-Kunbi lines.

Dange's report is a little long and captures all of the above in fuller detail - in case you are interested in reading. I'd say this is among the best ground reports we've done this election season.

Full marks to politicians who navigate this complex social landscape and manage to actually win!

- Amar Govindarajan