A Tale of Three By-Elections

Analyzing the implication of the recently concluded by-elections

Any political punditry based on by-elections outcome needs to be undertaken with great degree of caution. Ruling parties traditionally enjoy an upper hand in by-elections given their ability to indulge in micro targeting of voters and carpet-bombing the constituency through deployment of enormous resources. With this caveat in mind, here is an attempt to read the political tea leaves based on the results of by-election across Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh.

Kerala

Among all 5 by-polls that were held, Aruvikkara, in the politically polarised state of Kerala, garnered the maximum attention. Election to this constituency happened in backdrop of the ruling alliance facing political backlash over a series of sleaze-meets-corruption scandals featuring Congress functionaries.

Consistent with its dynastic principles, the Congress fielded the son of its deceased stalwart, G Karthikeyan. The BJP fielded its old workhorse O Rajagopal. The CPM-led LDF fielded a veteran comrade.

Riding on the back of a sympathy wave, the ruling Congress-led UPA alliance expectedly retained its stronghold in a 3-cornered race. But the big story of this by-election is the implosion of the Communist front and the spectacular surge of BJP (see table below)

Table 1 Comparative Performance of Parties in Aruvikkara Assembly Seats

Data courtesy: CSDS

That BJP managed to better its 2014 Lok Sabha performance. That is a clear testimony to its emergence as a potent electoral force in the state. While the massive goodwill that Rajettan, as Rajagopal is endearingly referred to, commands, partially explains such a massive increase in  its vote share, the result also points to a tectonic shift in the state’s electoral landscape. However, any euphoria on BJP’s part needs to tempered with a realisation that it will always struggle to overcome a nearly insurmontable demographic challenge – religious minorities constitute more than 40% of Kerala’s population and as the table below shows, they have not traditionally voted for the BJP in Kerala.

Data courtesy: CSDS

The terrible news from this by-election though, is for the Leftists. Kerala looks irretrievably lost for the Communists. While the religious minorities continue to heavily consolidate behind the Congress-led alliance , a section of impoverished Hindus, who constitute the bulwark of CPM support base, are now beginning to switch to BJP. This could be catastrophic for the Communists. If the Modi-led BJP can withstand the Communist storm-troopers in North Kerala and perform deft social engineering to attract a section of the Dalit votes, the BJP could make further inroads in the state. In short, BJP’s damage potential to Communists is immense.

By-poll result also reflects poorly on the political wisdom of CPM apparatchiks who decided to elevate  Sitaram Yechury as its General-Secretary. Even a significant section of the party apparatus views him as a Congress crony. What CPM needs to revitalize itself and stem its descent in to political irrelevance is regaining its strong anti-Congressism and not play a pathetic team-B to Congress which it is reduced to now. Given that even JNU has moved on from mundane variety of Bhadralok Marxism to embrace a murderous cocktail of Bolshoveik Islamism, Tripura seems to be the only safe bastion for the Marxists.

Tamil Nadu

One startling fact about by-elections in  Tamil Nadu. A ruling party has not lost a single by-election held since 1988. Such is the stranglehold of any ruling party over the state machinery. Just months before she was ousted from power, thanks to her party’s humiliating defeat in  1996 assembly election, ADMK had won a byelection in a Chennai constituency with a thumping margin.

Similarly, the DMK-led alliance had won a string of by-election victories in the run up to its devastating 2011 defeat. Victories were fashioned based on what came to be known as the “Thirumangalam Model” – bribing of polling officers and opposition booth agents, intimidation of opposition political workers and massive door delivery of freebies. This electioneering template as since found cross party adoption as a best practice. ADMK has improved upon it.

So Jayalalithaa steam-rolling her opponent in North Chennai’s  R.K Constituency by a margin of  over 150000 (yes you read it right) comes as no surprise. It was never the case that the ADMK needed to pull off something special to win R.K Nagar. It is an impregnable stronghold of the party. It won here even in 2006 and 2011. This constituency (infact the entire North Chennai region) is dominated by ADMK functionaries who combine  great local connect with the populace with strong-arm tactics. Jayalalithaa choose this seat over other traditional ADMK bastions that she usually contests from to perhaps the minimise her travel time.

No definitive conclusion on which way the political winds are blowing in Tamil Nadu can be drawn based on this by-election. However it’s clear that, despite running an indifferent and lackluster administration, the ADMK continues to reign supreme and it would be difficult to dislodge it in 2016. The only hope for a DMK–Congress alliance is a favourable SC verdict in disproportionate assets case.

Madhya Pradesh

Shivraj Singh Chauhan led BJP continues with it’s winning ways in Madhya Pradesh. Despite attempts by opposition to besmirch him in Vyapam Scam (which precedes his advent to power by many years), Chauhan spearheaded his party to yet another poll victory.

BJP candidate Chander Singh Sisodia won the Garoth seat by defeating Congress’ Subhash Kumar Sojatia with a margin of 12,945 votes.

After 12 continuous years in power (and winning every election during this period), some electorate fatigue is bound to develop. If not managed well, it could acquire a shape of serious anti-incumbency vote. But  given how Chauhan has proved his detractor wrong and has delivered well, it may be too early to ring the alarm bells.