Advantage BJP In Rajasthan? Pre-Poll Survey Shows 'Modi Factor' Remains A Force, No Significant Impact Of Rahul's 'Bharat Jodo' Yatra

In the run-up to the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds a five percent lead over Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in terms of popularity.

However, only 24 percent of voters express dissatisfaction with the Congress government, as revealed by a pre-poll survey conducted by NDTV-CSDS Lokniti.

A week-long survey conducted in 30 of Rajasthan's 200 Assembly constituencies starting 24 October, involving over 3,000 people, revealed a combination of positive & negative results for the ruling Congress party.

The survey showed that the Congress received favourable feedback on certain matters such as state-run schools and hospitals, but also received criticism indicated by a 'frowny face' emoji on other issues.

The BJP will find encouragement in the fact that voters, although by a small margin, have chosen the party over the Gehlot government to address issues such as rising corruption, inflation, and unemployment.

The findings indicate that the Congress and Chief Minister Gehlot need to put in more effort, considering the limited time they have, in order to maintain control of the state, which is one of the few states that the party governs independently.

Overall, the Gehlot government has garnered positive satisfaction ratings from voters. A significant 43 percent claim to be 'fully satisfied' while 28 percent express being 'somewhat satisfied'. These numbers bode well for the Congress party, as only 10 percent of voters are 'somewhat dissatisfied' and14 percent are 'fully dissatisfied' with the ruling party.

However, the 'Modi factor', which has won the BJP numerous elections, remains a force, according to the survey.

In the race between the two leaders, the Prime Minister emerged as the winner, securing 37 percent of the votes compared to Gehlot's 32 percent.

The split between party and candidate preferences is currently tied, with 31 per cent of respondents considering the party as the key factor and 30 per cent choosing the candidate.

Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Gehlot both received 13 per cent of the votes.

According to the survey, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra did not have a significant impact on his party's popularity, with only 28% of voters believing it had a positive effect.

In fact, only a mere 3 per cent of voters stated that they would be influenced by Gandhi in their voting decisions.

On Gehlot Government's report card, overall, there is a positive sentiment among the majority of people towards Congress, as they believe that government-run schools and hospitals, electricity and water supply, roads, and law and order have improved.

However, there is a small exception to consider. In three instances - roads, women's safety and law and order - the margin is only narrowly in the Congress' favour; two, seven and two per cent, respectively, as per the survey.

The top concerns for voters are unemployment, which is at 21 percent, and price rise, which is at 20 percent. Poverty and the lack of overall development are also significant concerns, at 15 percent and 13 percent respectively.

It is worth noting that corruption is only at a low seven percent.

There is an overwhelming consensus that under the five years of Congress rule, there has been an increase in price rise, unemployment, and corruption, which is concerning news for Chief Minister Gehlot. Additionally, only 31 percent of voters believe that industrial development in the state has progressed during this time.

The BJP emerges as the clear winner in the 'development vote' category, with 48 per cent of the respondents favouring them, compared to the 34 per cent who chose the alternative. Additionally, when it comes to addressing the cost of living crisis and job creation, 48 per cent and 44 per cent respectively opted for the BJP as their preferred party.

Among other issues that voters are responding to are 'cow protection', with a massive 76 per cent flagging this as more important than reservation for marginalised or backward communities, according to the survey.

In terms of the Muslim vote, the Congress holds a significant advantage over the BJP with 86 percent support compared to just nine percent. Similarly, the Congress enjoys a comfortable lead of eight percent among Jat voters. However, the BJP takes the lead among Rajputs and backward communities.

Meanwhile, BJP (46 per cent) has a narrow lead of 2 per cent over Congress(44 per cent) when it comes to Dalit voters.

The Congress party may face consequences due to concerns about women's safety, as 45 percent of women are more likely to vote for the BJP, while only 39 percent are inclined towards the Congress.

Among men, the preference is slightly in favor of the BJP with a split of 43-41.

On the question of Chief Minister, Gehlot is clearly the preferred choice with 27 percent of the vote, while his predecessor, Vasundhara Raje from the BJP, lags behind with only 14 percent.

The fact that 15 percent of the respondents are open to anyone from the BJP indicates a decline in Raje's influence as the party's most powerful state leader.

Sachin Pilot, the former deputy chief m,inister who led a rebellion against Gehlot in 2020, has the support of just nine percent of potential voters.

However, the survey figures should be approached with caution as they are likely to change.

However, it appears that the BJP has a slight edge in a state that has consistently voted against the ruling party since 1993, when the BJP was re-elected.