Behind VCK’s Call For Prohibition In Tamil Nadu: Hint At An Alliance With AIADMK?

The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), led by Thol Thirumavalavan has announced a conference at Kallakurichi on 2 October to demand liquor prohibition in the state. 

While it has invited the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), the largest opposition party, it has not requested the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), a party well known for its consistent demand for prohibition, or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to join.

The ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) too had promised prohibition before the 2021 Assembly elections but it has not shown any indication to do it.

Thus, not much is expected from the conference itself, as VCK is an alliance partner of the DMK, except for an increased awareness amongst Dalits, who are the party’s major support base and also the biggest victims of hooch tragedies. 

The location of the protest, i.e. Kallakurichi, which is where the most recent tragedy occurred, could help it in terms of visibility.

But what makes the conference interesting is the signal that the VCK could likely be sending. 

Though Thirumavalavan has ruled out an alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), political commentators read the invitation as an indication that he is willing to do business with the party.

The VCK could easily justify a switch to the ADMK to its Dalit voter base since the AIADMK is also a 'Dravidian' party. It will also likely have little trouble convincing its Islamist supporters. After breaking ties with the BJP, the AIADMK, under the leadership of Edappadi Palaniswami, has actively sought to appease these groups.

It also had an alliance with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), alleged to be the political arm of the Popular Front of India (PFI), (which has now been banned), during the Lok Sabha elections.

AIADMK Gains As Well As Loses From An Alliance With VCK

The VCK, while not commanding a large vote share, (it secured 2.25 per cent in 2024 Lok Sabha elections and 0.99 per cent in the 2021 assembly elections), could influence the outcome in constituencies with a large Dalit population. 

Further, it could provide the much needed heft to AIADMK in the delta region, where it is weak but an alliance with VCK here could make it lose the Vanniyar vote. 

(The Vanniyars are a large socio-politically dominant community classified as Most Backward Class in Tamil Nadu, with significant presence in the northern districts and the delta region). 

There have been a number of clashes between the Dalits and Vanniyars over the years and it is often said that the VCK and the PMK (seen as a Vanniyar party) could never be in the same alliance. 

The PMK is currently a part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and secured a vote share of 4.3 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. 

An AIADMK-VCK alliance is thus likely to make Vanniyars choose between the remaining parties, i.e., the DMK and the PMK. A consolidation behind the PMK too cannot be ruled out. 

Although everything seems fine in the DMK alliance for now, apart from a few comments from leaders, anger among Dalits and disputes over seat sharing could push Thirumavalavan towards the AIADMK. After its poor performance in the Lok Sabha, the AIADMK is in need of strong alliance partners.

That he is an ambitious leader is no secret. Thirumavalavan had pushed for the VCK being given four Lok Sabha seats instead of the usual two.

Further, he wished to contest from one general seat too instead of just reserved constituencies, which has been the case with Dalit parties in the state.

Thus, it would not be very surprising if he chooses to join hands with Palaniswami, closer to the elections.