Bihar: A Crucial INDI Alliance Member Maybe Willing To Switch Sides; Will BJP Seize The Opportunity?

In a politically charged state like Bihar, even a key leader changing his or her display picture holds some significance.

Recently, Mukesh Sahani, founder of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), changed his display picture on X, causing a bit of chaos in state politics.

Sahani changed his picture to show India’s flag, which is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Har Ghar Tiranga campaign.

Interestingly, Sahani is the only leader from the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance in the state to do so.

Sahani's response to the NDA's (National Democratic Alliance) Har Ghar Tiranga call is being interpreted as an indication of his renewed interest in the alliance. 

Before the photo change, many senior leaders from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar went to Sahani's home to console him over his father’s murder. PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah also talked to him on the phone.

After these gestures, speculations are rife that Sahani may return to the NDA. After the picture change, Madan Sahani, a former minister of social welfare in the Bihar government and senior Janata Dal (United) leader, said Mukesh Sahani will rejoin the NDA without any condition.

Sahani is a former set designer in Bollywood and is accredited with the design of the grand set of the movie Devdas. After a successful stint, he returned to Bihar and founded two organisations named Sahani Samaj Kalyan Sanstha and Nishad Vikas Sangh.

As the name suggests, both of these organisations are dedicated to the upliftment of the Nishad community in Bihar. 

Nishads are a group of nearly two dozen communities that make their living through riverine activities like sand dredging, boating, and fishing.

According to the 2022 Bihar caste survey, Nishads make up 10 per cent of the state's population. Because of the uneven distribution of their population, the community acts as political dealmakers (or breakers) in the north Bihar and Mithilanchal regions, places where more rivers are found.

Darbhanga, Madhubani, Vaishali, Muzaffarpur and Khagaria are places where Nishads are considered a force to be reckoned with. In 2019, Sahani had himself contested from Khagaria and was placed second with 27.06 per cent of total votes.

Rajbhushan Choudhary, the Member of Parliament (MP) from Muzaffarpur, also belongs to this community.

The Nishads missed the post-Mandal social upliftment bus due to a lack of unity and the absence of a unifying political leader who could claim to represent the whole community.

Sahani’s groundwork towards unifying the community forced existing political parties to take cognisance of him. It is believed to be the reason behind 2014 BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi handpicking him for campaigns in Bihar.

Sahani was considered a big factor behind the BJP's 2014 general election success in Bihar.

In the next year’s assembly election, Sahani emerged as a hook for the Bihar BJP. No matter how big a leader from the BJP was deployed for rallies, Sahani was always on stage. On stage, his speeches was higher up in the pecking order than some other bigger BJP faces.

In lieu of supporting the BJP, Sahani demanded Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the Nishad community, which, according to him, was not fulfilled despite promises from the top leadership of the party.

Miffed with the BJP, Sahani formed his own party, VIP, in 2018 and joined Mahagathbandhan for the 2019 general election. A year later, he shifted his loyalty to the NDA, citing disrespect for smaller parties by Tejashwi Yadav.

Of the 11 member of assembly (MLA) seats given by the NDA, VIP registered victory on four, though Sahani himself lost the election in Simri Bakhtiyarpur. These four seats turned out to be crucial in the neck-on-neck battle over government formation between the NDA and Mahagathbandhan. 

After being elected a member of the legislative council, Sahani himself became minister for animal husbandry and fisheries in the Bihar government.

Later, Sahani decided to break coalition Dharma by fielding 55 candidates on his own in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, which prompted the BJP to make an effort towards breaking VIP. All four MLAs of VIP defected to the BJP, also causing Sahani’s ouster from the NDA fold.

In the 2024 general election, VIP joined the INDI Alliance and grabbed national headlines for serving fish to Tejashwi Yadav on a helicopter. Even after Sahani was late to join the INDI Alliance, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) gave VIP three seats from its own quota, which the party lost anyway.

After the 2024 debacle, political analysts were speculating the timeframe in which Sahani would make a comeback to the NDA.

Meanwhile, Sahani himself has not categorically denied it, despite saying he will contest the 2025 assembly election with INDI Alliance. He repeated that an alliance with the BJP is possible only if his demand for ST status for Nishads is fulfilled.

Sahani responding with a reservation demand on the question of the possibility of a change in alliance is a message to the BJP since it is the largest party at the Centre and holds considerable influence on the grant of ST status.

The writing on the wall for the BJP is: Give ST status to Nishads and gain major influence over 40 to 50 assembly seats.