In A Marriage Of Equals, PDP And BJP Must Divide Power 50:50, Or Kiss And Break Up

Till the PDP and BJP ask themselves how the coalition can address both their political concerns, it is best to kiss and break up.

The PDP-BJP coalition in Jammu & Kashmir, which has come under considerable strain after the death of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, is a classic example of two partners with different strengths not understanding where the other is coming from.

The stark reality is that the PDP, which will now be led by Mehbooba Mufti, is a Kashmir party with a Muslim vote base while the BJP is a Jammu party with a Hindu vote base. It is a marriage of equals, and in such a marriage, power has to be divided close to 50:50. That is what has not worked. The PDP may technically be the senior partner, but it has only three seats more than the BJP.

The mandate of the 2014 state assembly elections was to keep the BJP out of Kashmir, which is why the Muslims of the valley – including the separatists – voted to see that the BJP got no seat in the valley. This is why despite the best efforts of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to woo Kashmiris by producing some local candidates and building an alliance with Sajjad Lone, the party drew a blank.

The mandate in Jammu was largely for the closer integration of the province with India, and also for giving the region a greater share of resources now cornered by the valley’s Muslims. So when the PDP and BJP came together, it was a logic of arithmetic and not any kind of chemistry or even a long-term vision. The PDP’s 28 and the BJP’s 25 added up to an unassailable majority.

But two plus two often does not add up to four in politics in the absence of a clear political understanding of how each one can protect his/her core constituency. The PDP has no future if it cannot keep the Valley Muslim vote; the BJP will be a washout if it cannot be the Hindu party that a big chunk of Jammu wants – though this is an over-simplification.

In the 10 months when they were in power, neither PDP nor BJP tried to see how both parties can focus on their core constituencies without ruining the base of the other. In other words, the PDP has to cater to Muslim sentiment in the valley and the BJP to the Hindu sentiment in Jammu. Without allowing for both, the alliance cannot succeed.

There is only one honest way to do it: that is to work out a power sharing arrangement where the PDP will be the lead party in dealing with issues dear to the Valley, and BJP defending Jammu’s interests. This means portfolios and power have to be focused on catering to the two mutually-exclusive core constituencies. (For the sake of simplicity, we are not discussing Ladakh, where the BJP has some degree of purchase).

The political model to look at is either the Malaysian one – where the UMNO heads the coalition and focuses on pro-Malay strategies, while the Chinese and Indian parties focus on protecting the interests of their respective communities – or the Kerala one (where the UDF is a coalition of Muslim, Christian and Hindu interests). In other words, power is split in a way where each party is able to deliver to its constituency by being fully empowered to do so.

Mehbooba Mufti, who is more combative than her father, is said to have told her party that there is a “trust deficit” and that the joint agenda is not being implemented. The Hindu quotes her as having said:

Mufti Sahib took a courageous, although unpopular, decision of aligning with the BJP with the hope that the Central government headed by Narendra Modi will take decisive measures to address the core political and economic issues concerning J&K and its people. Unfortunately, instead of partnering with and implementing Sayeed’s vision of bringing peace, stability and prosperity to J&K, certain quarters, both within J&K and in New Delhi, started overtly and covertly triggering frequent controversies over avoidable contentious issues resulting in wastage of the State government’s energies in fire-fighting and propitiation.

This statement effectively implies that Modi has to deliver to ensure Sayeed’s political agenda. There is no reverse obligation on the PDP’s part to give the BJP something to tom-tom to its constituency.

Mehbooba claimed that in view of the BJP’s inability to deliver what she thinks it promised, her party would have to “reassess” the coalition, including reconciliation between the two major regions of the state. It is PDP and BJP which need reconciliation, and not just Kashmir and Jammu.

The fact is the State BJP can also claim that the PDP did not do much to help it deliver in Jammu. Among other things, the central plan to resettle Pandits in secure zones in the valley was shot down by all the major valley parties – which means basically the Muslim outfits. It takes two to make a coalition work.

The problem is when both parties – PDP and BJP – think they have lost out by working together, either the basis of the coalition must be rethought, or it must be abandoned. The coalition can work if both parties have autonomy and power to help their separate constituencies. It cannot work if both work to undermine the other in their strongholds or if one seeks to dominate the other.

Till the PDP and BJP ask themselves how the coalition can address both their political concerns, it is best to kiss and break up.