Tamil Nadu: Why Stalin Will Likely Win The Next Assembly Elections

S Rajesh

Jun 07, 2024, 06:03 PM | Updated 06:00 PM IST

The DMK is likely to win the assembly elections in 2026.
The DMK is likely to win the assembly elections in 2026.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led alliance got a clean sweep. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is the principal opposition party in the state and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) failed to win a single seat.

Soon after the results, discussions began on social media stating that an alliance between the two parties would have been able to stop the DMK from getting a clean sweep. 

Later, AIADMK leader and party strongman S P Velumani stated the same. He said that BJP state president K Annamalai’s remarks about former chief ministers J Jayalalithaa and C N Annadurai were the reasons for breaking of the alliance.

Tamilisai Soundararajan, the BJP’s South Chennai candidate and a former state president of the party, also said that an alliance between the two parties would have resulted in the parties winning some seats.

While talks about whether an alliance would have helped in stopping the DMK juggernaut and how many seats the two parties could have potentially won are likely to go on for a while, the fact of the matter is that both parties are not keen on the alliance, especially after all that has happened between the two of them.

The remarks made by AIADMK leaders like D Jayakumar about Annamalai have undoubtedly left a bad taste in the mouth. Questions over whether the AIADMK would have given a good number of seats and transferred votes to the BJP still remain.

But what this means is that even in the 2026 assembly elections, the anti-DMK votes are going to get divided, and this would only benefit the DMK.

Whether those who do not want the DMK to return to power like it or not, a stronger BJP means that more of the anti-DMK votes would get split.

The BJP, in spite of all the efforts put in by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Annamalai and others has been able to reach a figure of around 11 per cent vote share (much lesser than the oft repeated target of 20 per cent). 

While it could definitely put in more effort and increase its vote share in the assembly elections, it still cannot be expected to win so many seats as to be able to dislodge the DMK from power. 

The DMK’s alliance remains strong, with none of their alliance partners leaving even after the AIADMK broke ties with the BJP, in spite of some talk of dissatisfaction emerging from the Congress and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and the AIADMK reportedly being in the mood to give them more seats.

With this victory in the Lok Sabha elections, and the poor performance of the AIADMK, they are likely to continue to stick with the DMK.

Therefore, unless the AIADMK is able to strengthen itself from the current state that it is in, i.e. being pushed to third or fourth place and losing its deposit in some seats, to the extent that it comes across as a strong contender for power or say the anti-incumbency against the DMK becomes so great that people simply want change no matter what, it is quite likely that Chief Minister M K Stalin will return to power in 2026.

Also Read: How Did The DMK-Led Alliance Win A Clean Sweep In Tamil Nadu In Spite Of Anti-Incumbency And Corruption Allegations?

S Rajesh is Staff Writer at Swarajya.

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