The Smart Strategy Behind Prashant Kishor’s Blitzkrieg Upon RJD

Recently, Jan Suraaj party facilitator Prashant Kishor announced a bonanza for Muslims in Bihar. In the 2025 Bihar assembly election, Jan Suraaj will field 75 candidates from the Muslim community.

The state will vote to elect 243 members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) towards the end of 2025.

Kishor, who is planning similarly for Dalits, will field his candidates on all 243 seats.

His calculations on Muslim voters sounds bizarre, to begin with. According to the latest caste survey conducted by the Bihar government, Muslims comprise 17.7 per cent of Bihar's population. Giving 30.86 per cent of the seats to a population group that does not enjoy absolute support from traditional socially empowered sections does not add up.

It only makes sense when we see who Muslims vote for in Bihar. Though their loyalty shifts between Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), currently it is the RJD upon whom they place their trust, as Kumar is with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Additionally, because the party aligns with the Congress is why Muslims sitting on the fence turn to RJD. Effectively, whenever the JD(U) and BJP are allied, RJD begins its election with the assurance of a majority of Muslim votes in Bihar.

As a data-driven strategist, Kishor knows that if Muslims are on his side, a major part of the battle for the 2025 assembly election is already won.

He is also aware that RJD fears a repeat of the 2020 election. In 2020, Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) had emerged victorious on five seats. Though most of these MLAs later went to RJD, a backlash from the AIMIM is always lurking over the party's head.

If Muslims are not with RJD, the party might find it hard to fight for its existence in the state. Apart from Muslims, Yadavs, with 14.26 per cent share in the state's population, are the second-biggest support group for the RJD.

Though they vote along caste lines, Yadavs are also known for voting against those who break their trust. Even powerful leaders like Lalu Yadav and Pappu Yadav have lost Yadav-dominated constituencies when they could not fulfil their promises.

It makes matters complicated for Tejashwi Yadav, who is trying hard to get Kurmi-Koeri votes (more than 7 per cent) on his side. The Kurmi-Koeri combination is the second-largest other backward class (OBC) in Bihar after Yadavs.

Kishor’s foray into the Muslim vote bank may force Tejashwi to look to secure what he has (Yadavs) rather than go all out to get what he does not (Koeri-Kurmi).

The second plank of Kishor’s strategy centres around Dalits, who are nearly 20 per cent of Bihar’s demographic makeup. However, Kishor is expected to get a tougher fight on this front.

Currently, Dalits tend to vote for whoever is associated with Kumar due to his reformist image in post-Lalu Bihar. With an emphasis on labharthis (beneficiaries), the BJP has also established a goodwill among Dalits.

Even prominent Dalit leaders like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi are in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) camp led by the BJP.

On the other hand, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance has no clear agenda to secure Dalit votes.

The way the public has responded to Kishor’s yatras and strategies for development, it won’t be an overestimation to say that he can open a second front for Dalit voters in Bihar.

Kishor’s emphasis on getting Muslim and Dalit votes is, in a way, a counter to the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav equation. While Muslims and Yadavs offer RJD 32 per cent of total votes, Muslims and Dalits offer Kishor with 37 per cent votes and the added advantage of snatching a long-term vote bank from an established party.

By all indications, it seems that the RJD is Kishor's first actual target. For instance, though cadre from every political party is joining Jan Suraaj, it is the RJD which seems to be losing out the most. Nothing else explains the anxious letter to its cadre by RJD Bihar chief Jagadanand Singh warning them against joining Kishor’s party.

Kishor himself calls RJD a party of criminals and claims no party shelters criminals like RJD. On Tejashwi, Kishor says the RJD leader does not know how to speak Bhojpuri or English. Kishor further says that all Tejashwi does is divert the topic to BJP whenever people ask him to be accountable.

Amid the rising heat between Kishor and RJD, a five-month old video has become relevant. In an interview with web portal Lallantop, Kishor is heard saying he may contest from Raghopur assembly constituency. Raghopur is considered the bastion of the Lalu family; both Lalu Yadav and his wife Rabri Devi have held this seat in the Bihar legislative assembly.

Currently, Tejashwi is the MLA from this seat. Kishor contesting this seat will make it a battle of honour and existence for RJD and Tejashwi.

Amid all this, the BJP has an opportunity to increase its stake in the state. Muslims voting for the anti-BJP faction is a roadblock for its rise in the state. If Kishor and Owaisi are able to scatter that vote bank, the party should look to consolidate its hold on Dalits and OBCs.