Why Owaisi’s Hard Line On Pakistan May Have Its Roots In Bihar And Hyderabad

Operation Sindoor, undertaken in response to the Pahalgam massacre of 22 April, saw unprecedented national unity. Even those politicians who are otherwise critical about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government or its actions against Pakistan—such as alleging that the Balakot air strike was conducted due to the 2019 elections, supported the strong retaliatory measures.

One such person who attracted significant attention was Asaddudin Owaisi, the chief of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), who is known to portray himself as the messiah and protector of Muslims in India. 

A lot of social media users wrote that the operation had brought out the unexpected as Owaisi, who has opposed several flagship initiatives of the Modi government—the uniform civil code, the Citizenship Amendment Act, the ban on triple talaq or the Waqf amendment and has routinely accused it of being discriminatory towards Muslims, came out all guns blazing against Pakistan.

The tone of the remarks were such that anyone not aware of his background could have mistaken him for a BJP spokesperson. Here are some of them—

Calling out Pakistan’s bluff for underplaying the damage caused by Indian strikes

Calling it a beggar and criticising the IMF’s decision to give it a loan

A lot of Indians were disappointed with the decision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to sanction a loan of $ 1 billion to Pakistan amidst the standoff and asked if the body was blind to that country's support to terrorism. Echoing the sentiment, Owaisi asked if it was the 'International Militant Fund.'

Further, taking a swipe at Pakistan's economic condition, he said that they are 'officially beggars.'

Down With/Death to Pakistan! Long Live India! 

In his first reaction on X after Operation Sindoor, he wrote, 'Pakistan Murdabad' in a post on X and added a video where he says 'Pakistan Murdabad, Bharat Zindabad!' (Down With/Death to Pakistan ! Long Live India)

While many welcomed it, there remain a number of skeptics, who contend that this is all part of  a plan. 

“Owaisi knows that he is being keenly watched because of his past utterances and is thus trying to over-compensate. If you go through his posts on X, you would not find any change in his stance on other topics such as the conflict between Israel and Palestine. He sympathises only with the people of Gaza strip,” said a BJP leader who spoke with the authors.

Another skeptic, a senior journalist, said, “He is trying to become a pan-India leader. What would have worked for him in a heavily Muslim-populated area of Hyderabad is unlikely to work for him in other parts of India where he may have to depend on Hindu votes to see his candidates sail through.

"Adding to this is the issue that his fortress is under siege. People have now started paying much more attention to what he says and does, especially after the high-decibel Hindutva oriented campaign by the BJP’s Madhavi Latha in the 2024 election.”

Others say that images created during such days (Operation Sindoor) are long-lasting and can be used in the future for political dividends.

"For the rest of his life, Owaisi can keep saying that he was against Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. Look at this in contrast with what happens with the communists. Anytime there is an issue with China, they get criticised first because of their support to them during the 1962 war," said a political commentator.

Though it is best known to Owaisi himself as to what’s driving his aggressive posturing, there does seem to be a political link to his utterances regarding Pakistan, which may not be apparent at the moment.

It is this connection, going beyond his pocket borough of Hyderabad and extending to Bihar, that we delve into in this piece.

Changed Political Scenario in Telangana

The elections to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) are slated to take place later this year. Unlike the last elections in 2020, when the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) led by K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) was in power in the state, this time it is the Congress led by Revanth Reddy. 

While Owaisi does not have an antagonistic relationship with Reddy, it is not the same as what he had with KCR, whom he used to refer to as 'maamu’. The BRS would not give a tough fight to the AIMIM in their strongholds and the latter would reciprocate by supporting the BRS in the rest of the state.

With the Congress, however, the situation is different. It has indicated that it would like to fight the GHMC polls alone and that any alignment with the AIMIM is only issue-based. Along with having the advantage of being the ruling party, it also has the ability to give a tough fight to Owaisi in some areas if good candidates are put up. This is because Muslims do not see the Congress as antithetical to their interests and so their votes are likely to split instead of consolidating behind the AIMIM. 

The best example to show this are the results of the 2023 assembly elections, where in the Nampally seat, Mohammed Feroze Khan of the Congress lost to the AIMIM candidate by just 2,037 votes. In Yakutpura too, the party secured a narrow victory by beating the Majlis Bachao Tehreek candidate by a mere 878 votes.

This is why it becomes important for him to get a section of the Hindu vote. As it is, the MIM has been fielding a few Hindu candidates due to the nature of population in certain areas and now with this image makeover of sorts, he might find it easier to get more Hindu votes for the outfit, especially in areas where the BJP does not stand a good chance.

While the GHMC elections are crucial for all parties—the Congress would like to mark its presence in the city as the party failed to win a single assembly constituency out of the 24 in the GHMC limits; the BJP would like to build on its historic tally of 48 seats; the BRS will look for a shot at revival.

Explaining the situation, the BJP leader said, “Other parties can win seats elsewhere and make up for the loss in Hyderabad but for the AIMIM, this is their only bet. They would do anything to retain their numbers. Further, the city is their cash cow. Without power here, the party would be starved of funds. Even though they may vote for him, a sizeable section of Muslims are unhappy with his party as they feel that there has not been any development in their area while the rest of the city has galloped ahead. Given a viable option, they may switch.”

The Bihar Connection

For Asaduddin Owaisi and his AIMIM, the expansion ambition is limited by his image of being a 'Muslim-only' party. For Hindus, Owaisi comes off as articulate but nonetheless a Muslim fundamentalist.

In post-2014 politics, many strategic shifts took place in 'secular' parties. For instance, Rahul Gandhi began flaunting his janeu, Akhilesh Yadav started building temples, and Bihar’s Yadav clan kept its 'Shiv Bhakt' son Tej Pratap Yadav in its ranks.

For the Muslim voters, accustomed to special PR events by these parties, the new trend was seen as a compromise on their position. A few editorials termed these 'secular' parties as forerunners of soft Hindutva.

In such a circumstance, Owaisi emerged as a single but loud voice for Muslims across India. His stands on triple talaq and other issues came off as reassurance for Muslims, and in return, Owaisi was supposed to gain a few electoral advantages.

In Bihar, Owaisi contested the 2015 assembly elections, but his six candidates could collectively garner only 80,248 votes—an indication that Muslims in Bihar were divided between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), and Congress. 

Seemanchal—the region with the densest Muslim population—has traditionally been a stronghold of the RJD.

In the next election, AIMIM was part of the Grand Democratic Secular Front (GDSF) led by Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP). AIMIM contested 19 seats in the Seemanchal region and won five of them. However, it benefitted the BJP more than anyone else, as the party bagged eight seats—the highest in the region—out of twenty-four. 

Many, including the RJD, started calling Owaisi the B-team of the BJP. RJD could only win five, and Owaisi dividing Muslim votes was considered the reason behind it. On three seats, AIMIM’s candidates bagged the second spot.

But the momentum has shifted significantly in the last five years. Firstly, the RJD took its revenge by snatching four of these five AIMIM legislators.

Secondly, 'secular' parties no longer seem interested in courting Hindus as a combined voting bloc and are hence doubling down on appealing to Muslims.

Thirdly, Upendra Kushwaha has merged his party with JD(U), and other parties in the GDSF are either defunct or aligned elsewhere.

That leaves AIMIM with a tougher battle than last time in Seemanchal. The party can’t be assured about its Seemanchal Muslim votes either. Congress has regained its foothold in the Seemanchal region after Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it secured the Katihar and Kishanganj seats.

For the 2025 elections, AIMIM has two goals in mind—re-establishing itself in Seemanchal and expanding its footprint beyond. It is pertinent to note here that 65-70 percent of assembly seats in Bihar are decided within margins of less than 10,000 votes. For the majority of seats, a significant chunk of these 10,000 votes comprises Hindus.

According to Adil Hasan, AIMIM Bihar spokesperson, his party wants to expand its base in Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur, Motihari, Chapra, Siwan, Gopalganj, Ara, Buxar, Sasaram, and Kaimur. AIMIM wants to contest at least 50 seats in the upcoming elections.

The current situation demands that any seat beyond Seemanchal be chosen in such a way that the Muslim population can hold sway over election results—either they can single-handedly secure victory for the candidate, or they are in such a position that if they vote against someone, he or she can lose.

Ideally, with a 20 to 30 percent share in the local population, Muslims can achieve this. The fact that Muslim voters turn out in larger percentages than Hindu voters also plays a key role.

For instance, at a seat where there are 30 percent Muslim voters and 70 percent Hindu voters, Hindus’ 50 percent turnout would yield 35 percent votes (of the total), while Muslims’ 90 percent turnout would yield 27 percent votes. The original gap of 40 percent on the population register shrinks to one-fifth of its size in voter turnout.

For AIMIM to win, it is necessary that all Muslims vote in its favour while Hindu votes get as divided as possible. Additionally, it would be much better if it can secure a few thousand Hindu votes in AIMIM’s favour (since 70 percent of assembly seats in Bihar are decided within margins of only 10,000 votes).

Owaisi has already announced one Hindu candidate named Rana Ranjit Singh from the Dhaka assembly constituency in East Champaran. Ranjit Singh had also contested from the Sheohar Lok Sabha seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

One of his social media posts read, “A Muslim cap on the head, a Jai Bhim scarf on the shoulder, and narrating the story of Maharana Pratap ji's bravery and valor, the beautiful socialism of our country. Jai Bhavani, Jai Maharana - Jai Bhim, Jai Mim, Jai Rajputana.”

Politically, such a slogan and related strategy may seem all over the place, but on the ground, the reality is that such a strategy can convince a few thousand combined voters from all caste combinations it appeals to.

To do this effectively, the virality Owaisi has achieved from his pro-India and anti-Pakistan slogans will come in handy. Analysts keeping tab on Bihar affairs observe that Bihar’s voters—especially Hindus—are more inclined to vote on patriotic lines than communal.

For average Hindu voters, Owaisi can’t wash away his pro-Muslim image, but clarifying doubts about his nationalistic credentials would always be welcomed.

His open and vociferous anti-Pakistan statements like ‘Pakistan Murdabad’ are now in local WhatsApp groups, Instagram reels, and YouTube Shorts—all of which are easily accessible to the masses. Online, it has been able to secure the support of erstwhile Hindu critics of Owaisi. 

The idea is to take these slogans into election rallies, party campaigns, and ensure that Hindus consider Owaisi a credible option. Meanwhile, the opposition Indian National Democratic Inclusive (INDI) Alliance is doing its part by calling Owaisi as B-team of BJP.

Picture that an AIMIM cadre is in a Hindu-dominated village to appeal for his party. The most pertinent question asked from him/her will be about Owaisi’s credentials. Playing his ‘Pakistan Murdabad’ will then come in handy.