BJP Victories In Uttar Pradesh Bypolls Is A Morale Booster For Party Cadre After Lok Sabha Losses

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won six of the nine assembly seats that voted for bypolls in Uttar Pradesh on 20 November, while one seat was won by its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). That made it seven seats out of nien for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

The BJP contested eight seats and won six of them, marking a 75 per cent strike rate while its main rival Samajwadi Party (SP) could win only two of the nine seats it contested representing INDI Alliance.

This marks a remarkable recovery after the losses in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections where the SP outperformed the BJP by winning 37 seats while the ruling party could win only 33 seats, down from 62 in 2019.

Before the nine seats were vacated, four were held by the SP, three by the BJP and one each by BJP allies RLD and NISHAD party. In the bypolls, the BJP not only retained its three seats but also won two from the SP.

The most notable BJP victory came from the Muslim-dominated Kundarki seat in the Moradabad district, where the party won for the first time after 1993. In Kundarki town, there are 81.54 per cent Muslims.

The signs of the BJP victories started emerging on the polling day itself after the SP raised several complaints across all seats that the UP administration and police were trying to influence the voting.

Kundarki's SP candidate Mohammad Rizwan even announced the boycott of the elections after expressing his distrust of state government officials. Subsequently, BJP's Ramveer Singh won.

Notably, Singh was the only Hindu candidate in this contest as all Independents as well as other parties including SP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Aazad Samaj Party and AIMIM fielded Muslim candidates.

However, not only the division of Muslim votes worked for the BJP but many Muslims appear to have voted for Singh. He was also seen campaigning in skull cap to appeal to the community.

Another notable BJP victory came from Katehari in the Ambedkar Nagar district, which was vacated by Lalji Verma when he won the Lok Sabha election. The SP fielded his wife Shobhawati Verma, a Kurmi.

However, BJP's Dharmraj Nishad, former BSP MLA who was elected three times consecutively from here, won with his voter base among Nishad, Dalit, and Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) communities.

Here, BSP played a spoilsport for the SP by fielding Amit Verma as its candidate which divided Kurmi voters. The Mayawati-led party received more votes than the margin of victory.

Thus, the BJP wrested Kundarki and Katehari seats from the BJP while retaining its Ghaziabad, Khair and Phulpur seats.

In Majhawan, instead of letting its ally NISHAD party contest, the BJP contested itself, fielding its former MLA Suchismita Maurya to take advantage of a substantial number of Maurya votes in the constituency.

Here, again the BSP played a spoilsport for the SP. The margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes while the BSP candidate Deepak Tiwari got nearly 35,000 votes.

Notably, Majhawan has a majority population of Nishads and Brahmins. BSP's Brahmin candidates cut the Brahmin votes and ultimately, the BJP won.

The SP could only retain its family bastion Karhal in Mainpuri district where party national president Akhilesh Yadav's nephew Tej Pratap Singh won and the Sisamau seat in the Kanpur district.

While it is a setback to the SP, which had become aggressive recently after the 2024 Lok Sabha election victories, the bypoll results give the BJP a much-needed morale boost.

The party cadre, which appeared to be discouraged after the Lok Sabha losses, would have received some enthusiasm for the 2027 assembly elections.

However, the BJP needs to remember that bypolls generally favour the incumbent and do not always mean a pro-incumbency sentiment at large. The BJP in Uttar Pradesh, both organisation and government, needs to upgrade and clean its house before 2027.