Seven Months After Lok Sabha Debacle, BJP Hasn't Found The Right Formula to Reconnect With OBCs In Uttar Pradesh

The Uttar Pradesh (UP) unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has much to worry about with respect to winning back the trust of Other Backward Class (OBC) voters after the 2024 Lok Sabha election setback.

OBCs form around 40-45 per cent of the state's electorate and play a deciding role in over half of the assembly seats.

The non-Yadav OBCs had been supporting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for nearly a decade. However, it is believed that many OBC castes like Nishad, Kurmi, Rajbhar, Prajapati, Kumhar, Loniya, and Nau, who earlier used to vote for the NDA, have switched sides and voted for the opposition INDI Alliance in 2024.

Political observers attribute this flip to the Samajwadi Party's (SP) PDA (Pichhde, Dalit, Alpasankhyak, and Adivasis) formula for OBCs, Dalits, minorities, and tribals, as also to the BJP's own mistakes.

The abbreviation "PDA" was coined by the SP's national president, Akhilesh Yadav.

As per the CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey, the shift of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits away from the BJP led to its fall to 33 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, from 62 in 2019. The INDI Alliance of the SP and Congress won 43 seats.

The BJP has initiated efforts to address this issue. To start with, more party functionaries than before, from the Dalit and OBC communities, were elected in the recently held organisational elections.

Even in the assembly bypoll held in November 2024 for nine seats, the NDA fielded five OBC candidates and one Dalit candidate, with the other three candidates belonging to the 'upper castes'.

NDA was rewarded, as its four OBC candidates, except one in the Samajwadi Party (SP) bastion in Mainpuri, Karhal, and its Dalit candidate won, leading to victories on seven of nine seats.

Still, the overall OBC sentiment on the ground does not appear to be changing in favour of the BJP.

Moreover, the narrative of 'Thakurvaad' (favouritism for Thakur or Rajput castes) under UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who belonged to the Thakur community before joining the Gorakhnath monastic order, does not appear to be helping the BJP.

"This (Yogi) government is anti-Dalit and anti-OBC. Whenever we see lists of university vice-chancellors or the secretariat staff, names of people from forward classes appear. Dalits and OBCs are included for formality," an Agra local from the OBC community told Swarajya.

Akhilesh Yadav has been trying to push this idea to the public. To target the Chief Minister, he says "STF" — the Special Task Force (STF) — stands for 'Special Thakur Force', and has alleged that the STF of Thakur officers harass people from other castes.

Despite being sanyasis, monk leaders in UP are typically known by the caste they were born into, be it 'Lodh' leader Sakshi Maharaj, 'Nishad' leader Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, or 'Dalit' Baba Goraknath.

Similarly, Adityanath's Thakur caste in his previous life (before renunciation) has been a target of not only the opposition but also BJP's allies, like Apna Dal (Sonelal) chief Anupriya Patel, who alleged fewer appointments of OBCs and Dalits by the UP government.

Struggles of BJP's OBC, Dalit Leaders

The allegations of discrimination against OBCs and Dalits especially gain traction when the struggles of BJP's OBC and Dalit leaders against their own government makes it to the news headlines.

The latest example is Sanjeev Balyan, a former two-time member of Parliament (MP) from Muzaffarnagar and former Union minister of state, whose security cover was abruptly withdrawn by UP Police.

Balyan is an influential Jat leader from western UP—in Uttar Pradesh, the Jat community is listed as an OBC group. It was only after he wrote to CM Adityanath, citing danger to his life, that his security cover was restored.

Similar is the case of Yogesh Verma, a BJP member of the legislative assembly (MLA) from Lakhimpur, who was assaulted by local Bar Association President Avdhesh Singh, a Rajput, in October last year.

Verma, a Kurmi by caste, skipped the Winter Session of the UP Assembly, saying how could he go to the legislative house when he could not get justice in the assault case.

Notably, the BJP expelled Singh, his wife, and two other workers from the party after Verma's complaint, but no police action was taken, which appears to have displeased the BJP MLA. However, Verma seems to have been pacified after his meeting with CM Adityanath earlier this month.

In another embarrassment for the party, Manoj Pasi, a Dalit leader and co-treasurer of the BJP's Scheduled Caste (SC) Morcha, was recently beaten by the police in Prayagraj. Four policemen were suspended as a result.

Political Inclinations of Various Castes

Since UP is a large state with dozens of OBC castes, it is difficult claim that any caste or sub-caste votes en block for one party, especially when the voting patterns of several caste groups remain unconsolidated and flip frequently.

However, one thing can be said with certainty: Yadav votes are strongly behind the SP despite not being represented by any leader outside the Saifai family in the Lok Sabha. (Akhilesh is from Saifai.)

The community's support is so strong that many cannot bear any criticism of the SP. A Yadav from eastern UP turned angry at this correspondent when asked about the lack of Yadav representation in Lok Sabha outside the Saifai family.

"SP is the only party that works for the rights of backwards. Unemployment and inflation were not this high under SP rule. Youths now have to protest to get jobs," he told Swarajya.

Another Yadav, Shivam from Firozabad, told Swarajya that he is not a regular supporter of any party, but supports SP now because of his belief in the PDA formula and the party's promises of development and employment.

The non-Yadav OBCs were observed to mostly support the BJP over the last decade. However, the votes of major OBC castes like Kurmis, including Patels and Vermas; Lodhs; Nishads, including Mallahs and Kevats; Jats; Rajbhars; and Prajapatis have been scattered recently.

Prem Chaudhary, the state president of Akhil Bharatiya Adarsh Jat Mahasabha, told Swarajya, "We like the opposition because they support our cause. We believe in Akhilesh's PDA, and its outcome was visible in the 2024 election."

Jitendra Chaudhary, the state president of another Jat outfit, Akhil Bharatiya Jat Mahasabha, denied any political affiliation to the organisation. He said individuals in the community were free to vote for any party.

However, his remarks about the involvement of CM Adityanath in the installation of former prime minister and Bharat Ratna Chaudhary Charan Singh's tallest statue in Moradabad suggest a liking for the ruling NDA.

Similarly, among the Rajbhars, voters are divided among the SP, BJP, and Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP).

SP worker Pankaj Rajbhar estimates that the SBSP gets half of the Rajbhar votes, while the other half is divided between the BJP and SP.

The Pal community is also divided, as confirmed by a Congress worker from Meerut. However, smaller OBC groups in UP, like Chouhans and Gujjars, back the BJP fully, according to the national vice president of Akhil Bharatiya Gujjar Mahasabha, Vineet Chaudhary.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the biggest setback to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh came from the Kurmi, Maurya, and Nishad communities. A substantial portion of the Maurya and Nishad communities voted for the SP because they felt well represented in the party.

As for the Patel community, which comes under the broader Kurmi caste, Sandeep Patel from Azamgarh told Swarajya, "It's not that the PDA formula worked. It's just because the candidates from the community got more tickets from the SP that they voted for it."

He added that while the community's votes remain divided among Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal, SP, BJP, and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is losing ground now, the SP became a favourite because it fielded 12 Kurmi candidates, 11 of whom won.

The BJP's Inadequate Counter

While OBC politics in UP is in a churn, the BJP does not appear to be proactive in its response. The party's OBC Morcha is proceeding with the same outreach programmes it had in the years past. A new idea or approach is yet to be seen.

Moreover, the BJP appears overly reliant on the welfare schemes of the Modi-Yogi 'double-engine' governments and on the representation given to OBC leaders in the Union and state governments.

BJP worker Ashok Kumar Rajbhar, who works as an advocate at the Allahabad High Court, believes that the OBC votes are getting divided because the BJP does not have 'direct representatives' among the various caste groups.

When this correspondent asked a BJP worker from Lucknow, Vaibhav Vishwakarma, about the outreach programmes run for his community, an OBC caste, he responded, "Vishwakarma Samman Yojana."

The Vishwakarma Yojana was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in September 2023. The UP government doubled down on it at the time by providing advanced training to workers chosen under PM Vishwakarma.

When asked about the BJP's efforts after the 2024 setback, Vaibhav told Swarajya, "Nothing special has been done, and hence, the votes of people from our community are scattered among different parties."

An OBC Morcha leader from Lucknow denied the need for an overhaul in the BJP's outreach programme. "Rallies are going on as usual since the Lok Sabha election. We have not lost too many seats," he said.

However, he assured that specific targeting of communities will begin before the 2027 assembly election and confirmed that, for now, OBC individuals have been appointed at various positions within the party.

Another OBC Morcha leader, Ashwini Kumar Patel, regional head of the Kashi region, told Swarajya that the opposition misled people by claiming that the 'constitution is in danger' and hence succeeded partially.

"However, the people have understood now, and will not be misled by Rahul Gandhi or Akhileshji. OBC communities have hugely benefited from Ujjwala Yojana, Kisan Samman Nidhi, and Awas Yojana," he added.

This feeling of 'all is well', after the opposition's 'lie on the constitution' has been supposedly exposed, seems to be causing lethargy among the BJP leaders, who deny accepting the actual impact of the 'PDA formula'.

Moreover, the welfare schemes that the BJP leaders cite have been operating for many years now; yet, they failed to deliver results to the party in the 2024 election, highlighting the need for a better outreach programme.

An OBC Morcha leader from the Awadh region explained, "OBCs largely vote for the BJP, but it remains unconsolidated because many are unable to avail welfare schemes, while others prioritise regional issues over larger ones."

Micro-management has become necessary because every caste, even under the OBC banner, has its own issues, and their equations and influence vary from one region to another in the large state.

However, when Swarajya asked OBC Morcha's Kashi region head, Patel, about what the BJP is doing to reach out to OBCs, he cited the OBC representation in the leadership.

"We have OBC state BJP president (Bhupendra Chaudhary), OBC Deputy CM (Keshav Prasad Maurya), 22 OBC ministers in the state, 35 in the Centre, and above all, an OBC PM. Even the different communities within OBCs, including Yadavs, get representation," he said.

This representation talk, however, hardly plays any role in the actual vote conversion. Though Akhilesh's SP did not give tickets to any Yadav outside his Saifai family, he still enjoys the support of all Yadavs.

What matters to caste groups is that they should be able to wield influence in the polity, whether through individual leaders or through a party that makes life relatively easy for them.

The BJP seems to be faltering in this aspect, as it does not allow any caste group to have a 'free run'. While that's a good thing, cases like that of Balyan and Verma send a message that even influential leaders of certain castes do not have actual influence in the government and administration.

The BJP's Allies

The regional parties, which are known to have a better hold on particular caste groups, could come to the BJP's rescue as allies. However, even these allies likely won't give BJP the results it seeks.

The BJP currently has four allies in UP, each catering to a particular caste group. Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) caters to Jats, Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal to Kurmis, Sanjay Nishad's NISHAD party to Nishads, and SBSP to Rajbhars.

Even with these alliances, the BJP could not consolidate the four caste groups for the NDA. While a few leaders believe that these alliances are not letting the BJP create its own major leaders from these castes, others see these alliances as necessary.

Adarsh Jat Mahasabha's Prem Chaudhary told Swarajya, "If the BJP would not have allied with the RLD, it would have been down to 17 seats instead of 33. Jats are innocent, and hence, some of them voted for the NDA due to RLD's influence."

However, the Gujjar Mahasabha's Vineet Chaudhary said, "We expected greater support of Jats due to alliance with the RLD but it turned out to be less. We would not have lost Sanjeev Balyan's seat if Jats would have voted for the BJP."

BJP worker Ashok Rajbhar asserted that relying on alliances is not good for the party: "BJP can't get backward votes through Anupriya Patel, Om Prakash Rajbhar and Sanjay Nishad. They just bargain with the BJP and do not work well."

These sentiments were echoed by SP worker Pankaj Rajbhar who told Swarajya: "The popularity of these caste leaders is fainting because they did not fulfill the promises made." However, he accepted that SBSP's alliance with SP could help the party win Rajbhar votes.

Meanwhile, BJP worker Ashok drew a contrast with the SP, which "won seats by bringing new faces from these communities in the 2024 election," while the BJP was relying on these 'mathadheeshs' (literally means head of mutt but here is used in reference to caste leaders.)

Ashok Rajbhar believes that if the BJP does not create its own leaders from these castes and continues to rely on these leaders then the 2027 assembly election will be a disaster and highlights that SP's leaders like Ramashankar Vidyarthi are working on the ground.

Vidyarthi belongs to the Rajbhar community, which is influential in 10 to 12 districts of eastern UP, and won the 2024 Lok Sabha election from Salempur defeating BJP's incumbent Member of Parliament (MP) Ravindra Kushwaha.

However, SBSP supporter Ram Milan Rajbhar from Azamgarh is happy with the party's alliance with the BJP as he said, "We have faith in Yogi Adityanath. He is a good man who works nicely. We will always support Yogi Adityanath."

Regarding alliance with Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal, one of the organisers of Kurmi Mahakumbh Sandeep Patel told Swarajya: "While the BJP should work on its own Patel leaders, it should not leave Apna Dal, since Anupriya Patel at least gave NDA one seat."

While the decision on alliances will be influenced by other factors as well, the BJP's challenges in expanding its political base across diverse caste groups, primarily due to insufficient influential local leadership and a lack of a targeted political strategy are apparent.

One cannot deny the possibility that a specific outreach plan is in the making behind the curtains but the changes are yet not visible in the party's strategy, creating uncertainties for the 2027 assembly election.