The Uttar Pradesh Angle To Modi's 'Surprise' Decision Of Caste Census

The Modi government's decision to undertake a caste census may have been driven in large part by the Bharatiya Janata Party's anxieties in Uttar Pradesh.

The 2024 Lok Sabha election results were disappointing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in light of its '400 paar' slogan. Although it managed to return to power for the third consecutive time, this time, it didn't have a majority of its own.

The most shocking result for the BJP came from Uttar Pradesh (UP), which boasts of being the most politically influential state with 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP could win just 33 of them, down from 62 which it won in 2019.

The BJP faced defeat at the hands of Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), which won 37 seats, helped its ally Congress win six seats after over a decade, and became the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.

This political shift was attributed to the transfer of a substantial number of Dalit and Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes, which used to come to the BJP for nearly a decade, to the INDI Alliance of SP and Congress.

Akhilesh Yadav's PDA (Pichhde, Dalit, Adivasi and Alpasankhyak) initiative, which aims to expand the SP's traditional vote base of Muslims and Yadavs (M-Y) to include non-Yadav OBCs, Scheduled Castes and Tribes (SC-ST) and minorities (precisely Muslims), was credited for the success.

In light of these losses, a series of internal meetings in the BJP, as well as with its ideological parent Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), began at all levels to find the party's drawbacks.

What was churned out in these meetings became visible in September 2024, when for the first time, RSS publicly said that it does not object to the caste census, with the condition that it is done for the welfare of certain communities and not used as a political tool.

Till then, various RSS leaders at several public forums had warned against the idea of caste census since Congress member of Parliament (MP) Rahul Gandhi had brought it up, stating that it was not desirable for social and national unity.

After the greenlight from RSS publicity in-charge Sunil Ambekar on 2 September, 2024, during a three-day national coordination conclave, in Kerala’s Palakkad, the government too signalled a change in its stance.

On 17 September, 2024, Union Home Minister Amit Shah did not dismiss the idea of conducting a caste enumeration along with the pending Census 2021 and assured that the census details would be made public soon.

Perhaps sensing the softened stance of the BJP over the caste census, Akhilesh Yadav too double down on his charge of 'Thakur bias' on the UP government and called UP's Special Task Force (STF) 'Special Thakur Force'.

Notably, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath belonged to the Rajput community before joining the Gorakhnath monastic order, and the charges of 'Thakur raj' levelled by the SP are directly aimed at the UP chief minister.

The SP's attacks continued with its media cell calling the Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission (UPPSC) 'Uttar Pradesh Public Thakur Service Commission' in November 2024, during the students' protests, referring to the incumbent UPPSC Chairman Sanjay Srinet, a Rajput.

The allegations of Rajputs dominating UP's institutions intensified in April 2025 when Yadav started claiming a high number of Rajputs in the police officer postings in many districts like Prayagraj, Agra, Mainpuri, Chitrakoot, and Mahoba, which was refuted by the respective district polices.

Even as this story was playing out, caste enumeration in the national population census, in other words, caste census, was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs on 30 April.

Welcoming the move, Adityanath posted on X, "This is a decisive initiative towards giving the deprived, backward and neglected classes their proper recognition and fair participation in government schemes," and thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It is worth noting that a day before the announcement of the caste census, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat met PM Modi at the latter's residence 7 Lok Kalyan Marg, a first since Modi took over as PM in 2014.

It is safe to assume that the discussions between the two included the caste census, and the two leaders—despite their earlier reluctance—agreed to it, given the political realities.

PM Modi had earlier accused the Congress of dividing the country by demanding a caste census and even called it an 'Urban Naxal' thought, combined with wealth distribution and socio-economic survey mentioned in the 2024 Congress manifesto.

However, the BJP's review meetings might have indicated that the Congress' appeal along with SP's PDA worked to drive OBC votes away from it in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh.

To add to this, even almost a year after the losses, the BJP couldn't provide a specific counter to SP's PDA or present a ground breaking proposition to the OBC voters, other than the usual outreach programs to specific caste groups and benefitting them through welfare schemes, as explained earlier in this piece.

With Assembly elections about 24 months away and no fresh strategy in sight to stop the erosion of OBC support, the caste census may well be the idea that the top party leadership came up with. In other words, this writer does not rule out the possibility that the decision of a nation-wide caste census could be driven almost entirely by the socio-political realities of Uttar Pradesh.

And perhaps no one appreciates the importance of Uttar Pradesh in India's politics than PM Modi himself. His decision to contest from the state in the Lok Sabha, the number of rallies he does in UP Assembly elections, and the focus of the party organisation on UP in Modi years show that the state is considered critical to BJP's fortunes by the Prime Minister.

Who gets it done

The foremost advantage to the BJP comes from the fact that the it will be seen as the party which approved the caste census. Eventually, it may not matter to the people who introduced the idea or who opposed but who implemented it.

"Caste census was an issue that the Congress couldn't take forward. But the BJP did it and hence, it will definitely benefit," social activist Bhanu Nand told Swarajya.

Echoing similar sentiments, Kashi region president of BJP OBC Morcha, Ashwini Kumar Patel, said, "The decision has been taken by PM Modi, so the BJP has the credit. This was in demand for a long time, but Congress couldn't do anything."

Explaining how it will meet caste aspirations, Patel said, "Many communities were demanding it because they were unable to benefit from government schemes. With caste data, we will design specific projects and benefits will reach everyone."

Another BJP worker from Ballia, Ashok Rajbhar told Swarajya, "It's true that the issue of caste census reached villages through the opposition but the final stamp has been put by the Modi government, so it will benefit from it. OBC votes lost in the 2024 election, will come back to the BJP".

Explaining the political advantage, a BJP worker from western UP, on condition of anonymity told Swarajya, "BJP will benefit in the next two elections because the BJP can break the politics of caste-based regional parties."

Notably, most of the regional parties in UP represent a single caste group. For instance, SP is considered a party of Yadavs, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Jatavs, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) of Rajbhars, NISHAD party of Nishads, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Jats and Apna Dal of Kurmis.

When the caste census data comes out, all the parties will try to align their strategy as per that, but with a tag of a specific caste party, there might be a limitation on their success.

On the other hand, the BJP is not seen as a party of any one caste. Therefore, when it begins strategising based on caste data, it is likely to attract support from communities that have newly recognised their political strength through their numerical presence.

"A few castes are politically over-represented, they will face problems. On the other hand, a few castes, which have more population, but are not politically strong, their share in politics will increase," political commentator Amit Yadav said explaining how the politics will play out after the caste census.

"Obviously, it will benefit the BJP. The share of Yadavs in politics will decrease, thus decreasing the political clout of SP. A similar thing will happen with Rajputs (who are known to have voted for the SP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election)," Amit Yadav added.

He anticipates that the BJP will take political benefit by uniting the votes of Extremely Backward Classes and non-Jatav SCs. Notably, a large number of Kurmis also voted for the SP in the 2024 election, their political influence is also likely to reduce, further benefitting BJP.

SP's PDA Versus BJP's Caste Census

Already, many political observers believe that Akhilesh Yadav's PDA peaked in 2024 and is unlikely to show similar results in the 2027 UP Legislative Assembly elections.

This is because in 2024, based on the BJP's '400 Paar' slogan, a narrative was spread that the BJP would change the Constitution and take away reservations on coming to power with such a huge majority, which led to attrition of Dalit and OBC votes from the BJP.

The question of changing the Constitution or revoking reservations becomes irrelevant in an assembly election.

Yadav also understands this and hence, he changed his strategy after the Lok Sabha election by alleging Thakur bias to polarise other castes. His party raised the ante against Rajputs when SP MP Ramji Lal Suman called the Rajput king of Mewar (in Rajasthan), Rana Sanga, a "gaddar" (traitor) during a discussion in the Rajya Sabha.

Instead of distancing himself from the remarks or criticising them, Yadav defended them by saying that the SP MP was simply trying to show how history has different versions, in the context of arguments around Mughal emperor Aurangzeb.

Responding to this development, Vikas Singh, a Rajput from Basti told Swarajya, "He (Yadav) is using a Dalit MP for statements against our brave heroes (Rana Sanga) to create a divide between SCs and Rajputs for political advantage. But that won't happen."

Political commentator Vikas Saraswat, explaining the rationale behind Yadav's tactics said, "It's a bit natural for resentment to be built against the dominant caste. The anti-Thakur sentiment is quite prominent in eastern UP. Akhilesh wants to tap into this sentiment."

Before these polarisation tactics could work out further, the BJP has come up with the caste census. How the 'Thakur raj narrative' plays out now would have to be observed.

At the same time, the SP still finds itself trapped in allegations of running a 'Yadav raj' when it was in power (under Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav). The accusations range from filling police and administrative posts with Yadav officers to a dominance of Yadavs in society, in general. The memory of 'Yadav raj' in the minds of many UP voters is said to be one of the key factors keeping the SP out of power.

But there is still lot of ground to cover for the BJP, especially given the setback in UP in 2024. The caste census will only help in fighting the narrative. To bear actual electoral results, the BJP would need to take some actions including expediting government recruitment in various departments, which is very important for many OBC and SC caste groups.

The other front that the BJP needs to work on is better ticket distribution, giving representation to most caste groups, which aligns with the caste census data. Notably, poor ticket distribution was said to be one of the key factors in the 2024 losses.

One of the challenges for the BJP is also to convince its 'upper caste' voters, that the caste census will not take away any of their rights. Notably, 'upper castes' are considered the major voters for the BJP in UP, especially Brahmins and Banias (trading communities).

Apprehensions against caste census

While the BJP appears to have made a head start in driving the narrative of caste politics in UP, its many supporters and followers and even workers believe that it will take the party away from its home ground of 'Hindutva politics.'

"BJP's politics is all about Hindutva. You yourself are breaking it to allow caste politics to make inroads. After 10 years, you won't be able to unite people in the name of Hindutva, if you do politics based on caste data now," the western UP BJP worker said.

He gave the example of former Prime Minister V P Singh, who implemented the Mandal Commission report to give 27 per cent reservation to OBCs and asserted that instead of him, the regional parties benefitted from him.

"The same thing will happen with the BJP. It will get a momentary advantage but those groups, which are deeply immersed in casteism, will never become core supporters of the BJP because they are only interested in keeping their rights safe," he added.

A Bhumihar from Etawah posed similar questions, "What will happen to the slogan of 'Batenge to katenge' (if divided, will be destroyed)? How will you seek votes on caste lines, when they have been voting for Hindutva?"

Notably, the slogan was given by BJP's icon of Hindutva politics, UP CM Adityanath after the Lok Sabha election losses and worked well in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly elections, where the BJP formed governments in the latter half of 2024. It appeals to Hindus to become united and not get divided across caste lines.

Vinayak Tyagi from Meerut sees this as an 'ideological defeat without a fight' because it was Congress's idea and does not suit BJP's politics. "It's going to hurt them," he said anticipating that the narrative of the 'Upper Caste' party would not leave BJP and it would need to take more such initiatives to prove otherwise.

Apart from the perceived shift from the BJP's Hindutva politics, other apprehensions are regarding the structure of the caste census and the kind of decisions that the government will take based on its data.

Professor Ramakant Roy questioned the practicality of a nationwide caste census and said, "There are at least 50,000 castes in our country, how many categories would you make? Despite so many categories, one category of 'Others' will be needed. How will you verify if someone belongs to the caste he is saying?"

The other questions are whether the reservation limit of 50 per cent would be removed if data supports that or whether quota within quota will be introduced for backward groups among OBCs, SCs and STs.

Notably, the sub-categorisation in SC and ST was recommended by the Supreme Court in its order in August 2024. While Congress-ruled Telangana became the first state to implement this recently, the BJP had then opposed the recommendation, stating that it does not align with 'Ambedkar's Constitution'.

Meanwhile, the apprehensions that the caste divides will deepen further remain. A BJP worker even questioned the future of caste politics, stating that when leaders are chosen on the basis of caste, what will happen to merit?

Without further details, it is hazardous to comment on how the caste census would play out, but for now, the BJP in UP appears to have a counter-narrative to SP's PDA politics.