China Is Propping Up A New Set Of Amenable Leaders To Unite Nepal’s Communist Parties

China has, over the last few years, made numerous efforts to reunite the two main communist parties of Nepal—the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC). 

However, all those efforts have failed because of the irreconcilable differences and ego battles between the chairpersons of the two parties—CPN-UML’s Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli and CPN-MC’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal. 

Merger & breakup

The two parties had, in a deal brokered by China, announced the formation of a coalition in October 2017 on the eve of the parliamentary elections slated for November-December that year. 

The two parties fought the elections together and won a majority of the seats in the lower house (the Pratinidhi Sabha) and in six of the seven provincial assemblies. 

The two parties formally merged into a new entity—the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)—in May 2018. Oli and Dahal were the co-chairs of the new party, while Oli also held the post of Prime Minister. 

However, soon, differences—especially over power-sharing—erupted between Oli and Dahal. The two had agreed to a rotating Prime Ministership, with Oli holding office for the first half of the five-year term and making way for Dahal after that. 

But Oli’s refusal to honour the agreement and various other issues soured ties between the two and their followers in the newly-formed party, leading to the dissolution of the NCP in March 2021. 

Beijing had tried its best to resolve differences between Oli and Dahal, and had deployed its then envoy to Kathmandu, Hou Yanqi, for the task. 

Yanqi held innumerable meetings stretching over nearly ten months with not only Oli and Dahal, but also other communist leaders as well as the country’s then President, Bidya Devi Bhandari (who was a CPN-UML leader before she became the country’s President) in an effort to prevent a breakup of the NCP (read this, this and this). 

But all those efforts failed, mainly because of Oli’s intransigence over sharing power with Dahal. The NCP was dissolved in March 2021 and Oli and Dahal revived their respective parties. 

November 2022 parliamentary polls and political flip-flops

The CPN-UML and CPN-MC contested the parliamentary elections in November 2022 separately. The CPN-MC formed a pre-poll alliance with the Nepali Congress (NC) and some other parties. 

The NC emerged as the single largest party, winning 89 seats, followed by the CPN-UML with 78 seats and the CPN-MC with 32 seats. 

But the pre-poll alliance (called the Democratic Left Alliance) between the NC, CPN-MC and three other parties won 136 seats, just two short of a simple majority. 

The NC-led coalition launched efforts to get the support of the smaller parties. But China spotted an opportunity here to prevent an NC-led government from coming to power. 

Beijing encouraged Dahal to ask for the Prime Minister’s post in the prospective government, a demand that was completely unacceptable to the NC since the CPN-MC had won far fewer seats than the NC. 

When the NC refused to humour Dahal, Beijing got its proxy--Oli--to extend support to Dahal. Five other smaller parties and three Independent MPs also extended support to Dahal. 

A new coalition government was formed with Dahal as the Prime Minister in December 2022. But very soon, differences once again cropped up between Dahal and Oli over suspicions that Dahal was holding secret talks with the NC. 

Oli also demanded that Dahal vacate the PM’s post at the end of 2.5 years (in June 2025) and make way for him (Oli) to become the PM. Dahal flatly refused. The rift between the two assumed very serious proportions and paralysed the functioning of the government by February 2023. 

Oli also accused Dahal of hobnobbing with the NC and promising to support the NC candidate, Ram Chandra Poudel, for the post of President of the country.  

China once again stepped in to resolve the differences between the two, but the duo, especially  Dahal, remained intransigent. China realised that its efforts to bring about a rapprochement between the two would not succeed. Oli withdrew from the alliance with the CPN-MC in February 2023. 

But the NC quickly stepped in and offered support to Dahal, who continued as Prime Minister. Dahal, in return, offered major portfolios to the NC. 

After a few months, Oli reached out to the NC leadership and started working on the prospect of a new alliance between the CPN-UML and NC. 

Both Oli and NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba (a five-time Prime Minister) found common ground—their repeated betrayals by Dahal. 

Oli promised the NC that in return for being allowed to become PM, he would give major portfolios like home, foreign affairs, industry, health, law, parliamentary affairs, tourism & civil aviation, agriculture and some others to the NC. 

Additionally, Oli promised that he would give the NC a major say in appointments to other Constitutional and key executive posts. 

The NC, still smarting from Dahal’s betrayals, agreed to Oli’s proposal and withdrew support to Dahal in July 2024, paving the way for the formation of a new NC-CPN(UML) coalition government with Oli as the Prime Minister. 

China’s new gameplan

China has realised that with Oli and Dahal as the heads of their two respective parties, there is little chance of the communist parties of Nepal uniting. 

Unless the two major communist parties unite, the NC, which Beijing views as a pro-India party, will continue to be a major player in Nepal’s politics. 

For China to push its sinister agenda in Nepal and make the Himalayan nation a client state, it is imperative that the communists unite and become a larger political force than the NC. 

The major hurdle towards achieving this goal is the Oli-Dahal duo. As long as they head their respective parties, there is no chance of even a lasting alliance between them. 

And the bad blood between Oli and Dahal is also coming in the way of getting the small communist parties, like the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist), from joining in the China-backed ‘communist unity’ project. 

China has now initiated a ‘minus two’ formula which entails easing out Oli and Dahal from the leaderships of their respective parties. 

What is working in favour of this plan is the growing unpopularity of both Oli and Dahal. Both are now widely perceived as power-hungry, corrupt and high-handed, with complete intolerance of dissent and propensity to bend principles to suit their ends. 

Oli’s waning popularity is evident from the hostile reception he got at some recent public events. At the final of a popular football tournament organised by a youth organisation affiliated to the CPN(UML) held in Kathmandu early in March, Oli was booed and jeered when he made an appearance. 

Oli has also been greeted by hostile crowds and shown black flags at many public appearances in other parts of the country over the past couple of months. Within the party, too, Oli is facing growing dissidence by powerful factional leaders who are said to be fed up with his high-handedness and unilateral moves. 

Dahal, too, is facing strong opposition from within his party. He is being openly challenged by many leaders, including those who were said to have been close to him. CPN(MC) units in many provinces have revolted against Dahal and are no longer accepting his leadership. Heads of some frontal organisations of the party are also strongly opposed to Dahal. 

Beijing is said to be fanning the flames of dissidence against the two leaders. A number of senior leaders of both parties who had gone to China over the past few months have returned and spoken out openly against their chairman (Oli and Dahal). 

Beijing’s proposed replacements for Oli & Dahal

China, senior leaders of the CPN(UML) who did not want to be named told Swarajya, wants former President Bidya Devi Bhandari to replace Oli. 

Bhandari was a senior leader of the CPN(UML) before she became the country’s President. 

“She (Bhandari) has been advised to tour the country extensively and meet grassroots level workers and functionaries of the party, as well as the common people, during her travels in order to drum up support in her favour,” a senior CPI(ML) leader who is also a minister told Swarajya over phone from Kathmandu. 

Bhandari, who is expected to announce her plans to return to active politics soon, has already toured Gandaki and Koshi provinces and has just embarked on a tour to Lumbini, Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces. 

She received very good responses from party workers and leaders, as well as the general public, in Gandaki and Karnali.

In fact, a number of disgruntled leaders and functionaries of the party have gravitated towards Bhandari, who is seen as level-headed and democratic with a firm commitment to upholding principles and probity. 

“Bhandari’s growing popularity will hasten Oli’s downfall. There could be a revolt against Oli within the party and Bhandari may be made the chairperson of the party. Oli will surely be eased out. Oli is also old and ailing,” former party leader Bhim Bahadur Rawal (who was ousted from the party by Oli in January) told Swarajya from Kathmandu.

As for CPN(MC), it is learnt that Beijing would like to see Nepal’s former Vice-President Nanda Bahadur Pun (also known as Nanda Kishor Pun) take over the leadership from Dahal.

Pun succeeded Dahal as the chief commander of the People’s Liberation Army of Nepal (PLAN), the armed wing of the Maoists, after Dahal resigned from the post, joined mainstream politics and became the Prime Minister in August 2008. 

The PLAN, under Dahal, had waged a bloody insurgency between 1996 and 2006 that claimed more than 18,000 lives. Pun was the PLAN chief till April 2012, when the outfit started disintegrating. 

He became a member of the CPN(MC) central committee and then the second Vice-President of Nepal in October 2015. He remained in office till March 2023. 

Pun returned to active politics in December last year and participated in the CPN(MC)’s central committee meeting in January this year.

Pun is said to be close to Beijing, and also enjoys the goodwill of a number of senior leaders as well as almost all the mid-ranking leaders and cadres of the party.

He is well-respected, and as Vice President, he remained non-controversial. He is also known to be honest and upright and is amiable in nature. A strict disciplinarian, Pun is said to be against personality cults and leads a simple lifestyle.

“Nanda Bahadur Pun is humble, down-to-earth, honest and abhors sycophancy. He is also very intelligent and leads by consensus,” CPN(MC) deputy general secretary Haribol Gajurel told Swarajya.   

What Gajurel left unsaid is that Pun is the exact opposite of Dahal who is arrogant, has a flashy lifestyle, takes unilateral decisions, encourages sycophancy and is power-hungry. 

Also, Pun and Bhandari, whose tenures as Vice President and President were coterminus (October 2015 to March 2023), have worked together amicably and have great regard for each other. 

“Both (Bhandari and Pun) share the same temperament and have a good working relationship. Bhandari and Pun will make a great team,” said Gajurel, who was once a close advisor to Dahal but had a fallout with him. 

Bhandari publicly praised Pun while on a tour of Koshi province in January this year. “He (Pun) is experienced and still in working age. We worked together for seven years, and I am happy that he has rejoined politics. I extend my best wishes to him,” Bhandari had said at a press conference that time. 

If Beijing’s plan to replace Oli and Dahal with Bhandari and Pun succeeds, the Bhandari-Pun duo will be amenable to execute the larger plan of merging their two parties and working together in a new party.

But as with all such ambitious plans, there are many hitches. Primary among them are the ambitions of many senior leaders of the two communist parties who will challenge Bhandari’s and Pun’s rise. 

Also, the fact that both Oli and Dahal, who are still well entrenched within their parties and control the purse strings of their respective parties, will not give up power and posts so easily. 

The rot that has set in within the two parties has cost both a lot of public goodwill and support. And that has benefited the NC and also the pro-monarchists who want to restore Nepal’s constitutional monarchy and ‘Hindu rashtra’ status. 

The two main communist parties of Nepal have lost a lot of support and are pale shadows of their earlier selves. Even if a merger may not make the communists the powerful political force they once were in Nepal. 

Beijing’s ambitious plan, thus, may not succeed. Just as its earlier plans met with ignominious failures, this too may fall into the deep political crevices of the mountainous country. 

Also read: 

Nepal Crisis: As An Angry Oli Snubs Beijing’s Brokers, China’s Efforts To Keep Nepal Communist Party Intact Seems Doomed

Chinese Envoy Hou Yanqi Exceeds Diplomatic Brief, Pressurises Leaders Of Nepal's Communist Party