Here’s Why The Unrest In Bangladesh Has Grave Security Implications For India

There’s no indication yet of the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh abating or the Awami League government gaining a firm grip on the situation anytime soon. 

Even if the Sheikh Hasina government vows to scrap quotas and agrees to carry out a fair and transparent investigation into the deaths of more than a hundred students and innocent persons in the violence that rocked the country over the past one week, the anger against the government and the ruling party is unlikely to subside anytime soon. 

That’s because the street protests which have rocked the country are no longer over government job quotas that are viewed as extremely discriminatory by students and many people of the poor country. 

As the anti-quota protests started gaining momentum from early last week, the Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its ally, the radical Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, got involved in the nationwide agitation and quickly gave it a political colour. 

Thus, the agitators and demonstrators who engaged in pitched battles with the police on the streets of Dhaka and other cities and towns of the country soon started demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and fresh elections under a caretaker regime. 

This demand — that parliamentary elections be held under a caretaker regime — had been a long-standing one of the BNP and the Jamaat since the 2014 elections that brought Hasina to power for the second time. 

Hasina ignored this demand in 2014, 2018 and again in December 2023 when parliamentary elections were held in the country. The United States and some Western countries backed the demand, but Hasina successfully resisted US pressure with the backing of India and China. 

The US, which termed the last parliamentary elections in Bangladesh as ‘undemocratic’ and ‘unfair’, has been critical of Hasina and is believed to have covertly encouraged unrest and opposition to her government. 

According to Awami League leaders and independent voices from Bangladesh, the anti-quota protests intensified and turned violent after the BNP and Jamaat got involved and turned the movement into an anti-government one. 

The US is said to have, through its statements and covert actions, encouraged the anti-government protests. It may be recalled that Hasina had accused the US of trying to bring a “regime change” in Bangladesh. 

The Grave Implications For India

Even if the protests die down or are effectively snuffed out soon, it will take a very long time (if at all) for Hasina to regain control over the country and win back the support of a majority of the people. 

The hard fact is that the protests have weakened her and the ruling party considerably, and delivered a big blow to Bangladesh’s economy and international standing. 

The effects of the damage done to the country’s already-fragile economy will be felt for a long time to come and will definitely fuel more disaffection among Bangladesh’s poverty-stricken masses. 

Hasina’s personal image has also taken a severe beating and it can be safely assumed that she has lost the confidence and trust of her people, at least for now. 

The brutal crackdown on protesting students and deaths of at least a hundred students in shootings by police and armed Bangladesh Chhatra League (the students’ wing of the ruling Awami League) has cost Sheikh Hasina a lot of political capital. 

A large segment of the liberals and seculars who form the major support base of the Awami League (conservative Muslims generally support the BNP and Jamaat) have turned against Hasina, at least for now. 

All this only means that the BNP and the Jamaat — both of them patronise radical Islamist groups and even Islamic terror outfits — will become more powerful. Riding on their backs, Pakistan will be able to increase its footprints in Bangladesh. 

Both the BNP and Jamaat, as is well-known, have close links with Pakistan, and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was very active in Bangladesh during the many decades of BNP and military rule in the country. 

The BNP-Jamaat combine becoming more powerful in Bangladesh is bad news for India. Having tasted blood now, it is quite certain that they will be instigating more trouble for the Awami League government from now on. 

That only means that radical Islamist forces as well as Islamic terror groups will become more powerful in the country. And through them, Pakistan’s ISI will also be able to play a subversive role in Bangladesh once again. 

This will definitely have a spill-over effect on this side of the border. Islamist groups and terror modules in Bengal and other parts of the country that have very close links with their counterparts in Bangladesh and are often surrogates of Bangladeshi radical outfits will feel encouraged. 

Pakistan’s ISI will find it easier to push subversives through Bangladesh into India. The ISI had provided training and weapons to militants of North East India who had been sheltered by military and BNP governments in Bangladesh in the past. 

While militancy has been largely snuffed out from North East India, Islamist groups and terror outfits still exist in India. Pakistan will find it very easy to encourage and even arm them through the BNP-Jamaat that will become more powerful even as the Awami League government loses ground in Bangladesh. 

What India Needs To Do Now

The only positive fallout of the unrest in Bangladesh is that Prime Minister Hasina is convinced now, more than ever, that Islamists need to be neutralised in Bangladesh. 

These groups had a major hand in fomenting unrest and intensifying the anti-quota protests and turning them into an anti-government movement. Hence, Hasina will realise the need to crush them decisively.  

Hasina would have also realised by now that flirting with Islamist groups and propping up one group of radicals against another is ultimately counter-productive. 

In order to contain the Jamaat, she propped up the Hefazat-e-Islami. But the Hefazat developed close links with the Jamaat and over the past two weeks, the two have acted in tandem. 

The policy of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds won’t deliver any results because, at the end of the day, all Islamists are the same and have a common goal of establishing Islamic rule. 

India has to now help Hasina get back on her feet and then encourage her to launch an all-out offensive against the Islamists in her country. 

Hasina should also be encouraged and helped to weed out pro-Pakistani elements in Bangladesh’s armed and paramilitary forces, its intelligence agencies, bureaucracy and its civil society, including academia.

The identity of these pro-Pakistani elements is well-known and they espouse Pakistan’s cause quite openly. Cracking down on them and neutralising them should not be a difficult task for Hasina. 

India has a lot at stake in Bangladesh, and it is in India’s interests that Hasina continues to rule over that country. New Delhi, thus, has to devote a lot of attention and resources in ensuring that Hasina is able to regain lost ground in Bangladesh. 

Also read: Why Sheikh Hasina Has Only Herself To Blame For Bangladesh Teetering On The Brink Of Anarchy