How Trump Blew It In First Presidential Debate: Clinton Wins Round One 

With his positioning as the “outsider” and with anti-incumbency tailwinds working in his favour, it has been clear that Donald Trump has had the momentum to win the US presidency. And only he can blow it. He came close to doing that in his first presidential debate with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton on Monday (26 September), where she came across as calm and composed while he seemed poorly prepared and defensive, especially in the second half. Trump tripped himself through poor planning of comeback lines and rebuttals when everyone and his aunt knew on what points he would be attacked.

In the 90-and-odd minute debate, the issues covered were trade, jobs, race, foreign affairs, and security. Trump came out strongest on trade and jobs, but not so strong on foreign policy or security, despite the fact that Republicans have traditionally been stronger in these areas. On race, even though Clinton had the more thoughtful answers, she made little impact because most race problems relate to cities run by Democrats, and their record on race has not been great even though Afro-Americans have always voted for the Democrats.

But Hillary scored with her demeanour, her composure and smiling face, her greater attention to detail, and especially the clinical way in which she drove the knife into Trump’s weak links and record of making insensitive comments about women,Afro-Americans , and Muslims. She exploited every opportunity to show Trump as an impulsive man who can say hurtful things, and all he could come up with was that she spent millions of dollars rubbishing his character.

It was always clear that America will vote for the candidate who they distrust less, since both Clinton and Trump have serious character flaws and dubious ‎ records on probity to defend. So when it went to the wire, it was always going to be about who looked less dishonest.

Clinton knew she would be asked about the thousands of private emails she destroyed in contravention of rules. But she simply said she made a mistake and apologised. Trump had no comeback line. He could have probed her more on the emails, but didn’t. He didn’t even make the simple point to ask if an apology was enough to wash away your sins.

Clinton, on the other hand, came prepared to explore chinks in his armour - from his failure to make his tax returns public, to his failed businesses (six early bankruptcies), to his attempts to prove President Obama wasn’t born in America (the so-called “birther” controversy), to the fact that Trump often didn’t pay the people he hired, and his outrageous remarks on people and issues.

Trump’s answers were weak and defensive. To Clinton’s charge that he didn’t pay some of his hires, he butted in saying “maybe he didn’t do a good job and I was unsatisfied with his work.” To another allegation that he called the whole climate change issue a Chinese hoax, he replied “I don’t say that, I don’t say that.”

When Clinton pointed out that Trump had often called women “pigs, slobs and dogs”, and how he called a Latina woman in a beauty contest “Miss Piggy” or “Miss Housekeeping”, the only thing Trump could retort was that he wanted to dig deep into the Clintons’ own far-from-exemplary past, but “I just can’t do it.” His defensiveness and forbearance didn’t do him any good in the context of his record of shooting from the lip first and then covering up for it and denying he said it.

If the first debate was lost to Trump, it was because he failed to make a good case for himself and his personal weaknesses, including making impulsive statements without much thought, and banging on with politically incorrect stuff. Clinton knew her weak points and disarmed everyone with her apology. Trump was too pig-headed to do the same and draw level.

Trump’s own personal attacks were off-the-cuff and pointless, when he said Clinton didn’t look like a President, and that “she didn’t have the stamina.” This was perhaps a veiled reference to some of her alleged health issues, but Clinton scored here too, when she replied: “As soon as he travels to 112 countries, he can talk to me about stamina.” The subtle missile landed on his own head.

The funny thing is Trump started off well by attacking the Democratic record on bad trade deals which had cost jobs and how his deep tax cuts would bring investors back to America - and create jobs. He also talked about how regulations were throttling businesses. Clinton’s only comeback line was that tax cuts would favour the rich. But it did not look like she had any plans other than what has already been attempted in the past. Trump at least looked like he had some ideas. His simple argument was he knew business, and thus could be assumed to know what would make American businesses invest again in America and not take the jobs overseas.

On gun control and recent race violence, especially involving cops and Afro-Americans, both sparred and scored little. Trump presented himself as a law-and-order candidate (a regular Republican issue) and favoured more frisking of people; Clinton advocated greater gun control, and better training for the police, but this did not make much of an impact.

The two also sparred on cyber security, with Clinton suggesting that Russian hackers (probably abetted by Vladimir Putin, on whom Trump has been soft) may be undermining US security, but Trump rubbished that saying anyone could have hacked into the Democratic National Committee, including China or somebody “that sits on their bed that weighs 400 pounds.”

Both agreed on need for more cyber security, and no gains were made in this area of debate.

On Nato, where Trump said they need to do their share, Clinton jabbed here and there to prove he is less committed to Nato, but that didn’t find traction.

At the end of the first presidential debate, one has to concede that Round One went to Clinton simply due to better preparation. Trump seems to believe that he can get away with impulsive retorts and spur-of-the-moment thrusts. He also seemed to display an attention deficit disorder, since he didn’t seem to listen to Clinton’s arguments, and instead just butted in repeatedly to interrupt her when she was speaking. This could not have gone down well with viewers.

The chances are Trump blew it this time by being who he is. If he does not manage a better show in the next two debates, he is a goner.

Based purely on this debate, America is more likely to vote for Clinton than Trump.

The debate is unlikely to cost Trump his core voter base of angry Americans, but it will not win him any votes among the undecideds, especially in a race where some marginal states will be crucial to a win for both candidates.