Trumpism Will Outlive Trump & Clinton Could Be USA’s Most Compromised President

If the latest polls are any guide, Donald Trump is heading towards defeat in the 8 November presidential elections. Election tracking site RealClearPolitics (RCP), which gives an average of the latest poll results, shows Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by 6.2 percent, and betting odds now place Clinton’s victory as an 86 percent surety versus Trump’s 14 percent. The anecdotal evidence, of a Republican party splitting down in the middle, with House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain distancing themselves from Trump, also suggests that Trump may be headed for one of the worst defeats in history.

The problem with this kind of analysis is that it does not get the larger picture: a seriously flawed character like Trump getting 40 percent of the vote in the teeth of a united Democratic party and a split Republican party. This implies that Trump has come to mean something than just boorishness for so many Americans. Trump may be a misogynist, racist, protectionist and everything else liberal media dislikes, but Trumpism is not the same as the morally degraded character called Donald Trump.

We are missing something here, and these are some of those things:

One, Trump has become – effectively – the first candidate in recent US electoral history to have a vote base big enough to win by himself. That he may not win does not mean he could not have won with lower personal failings. Trump is a true third force in US politics.

Two, Clinton’s likely victory has nothing to do with any of her alleged strengths, but entirely with the revulsion – especially among women – to Trump. Clinton’s win, if it happens as per script, has nothing to do with her. It is about stopping Trump, the only candidate to speak many politically incorrect truths, despite his tendency to mix fact with fiction. Clinton will get into the White House because the consensus of the powerful, from business to media, went against Trump. This could make Clinton one of the weakest and most compromised Presidents in history.

Three, Clinton is beholden to too many people, especially the super-rich and business interests, to provide the radical thinking America needs to lift itself out of the morass. It is interesting to note that it was Donald Trump who promised deep corporate tax cuts while Clinton promised tax increases for the rich; but the rich are rooting for Clinton. This means Clinton’s room for manoeuvre will be limited. The cronies who have backed her and enabled her to outspend Trump five to one will not have done this out of pure altruism.

Four, let’s also be clear that Trump had no solutions that were better than Clinton’s, but his rise was more due to the way he articulated hidden attitudes and problems than a serious attempt at solutions. Whether it is globalisation, outsourcing, immigration, nationalism, automation, taxation or monetary policy, neither the US, nor Europe nor Japan nor anybody has viable solutions, leave along a well-thought-through strategy. Trump has at least raised the right questions, and so has post-Brexit Britain, where Prime Minister Theresa May shifted her Conservative party to the Left, promising change (see what she said here).

Five, it is worth asking ourselves a simple question: how did a low-down character like Trump capture the imagination of America’s voiceless – but White - millions, despite his terrible track record of doing nothing for them? It suggests that taking on the elites of America is a viable political proposition.

Trumpism too will not end with his defeat. It is possible that the Republican party will take up some of his causes, and the Democrats some others, but both parties are in bed with vested interests. A mere appropriation of Trump’s articulations will not be enough. Trumpism will have a life beyond Trump.