US Presidential Race Set To Go Down To The Wire, Suggests Rasmussen Reports Data

According to the latest numbers released by the Conservative-leaning polling agency with a credible track record, the United States (US) presidential election is likely to be a fight to the finish.

A survey of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between 24 and 26 October by Rasmussen Reports. Here are the highlights of what the survey found:

• Democrat Hillary Clinton (45 per cent) is leading Republican Donald Trump (44 per cent) by 1 per cent. Trump was leading Hillary by 2 per cent at the start of the week, but the scales tilted in Hillary’s favour yesterday (25 October).
• Eighty-seven percent of the likely voters feel they are not going to change their mind on election day. Among these voters, there’s a tie between Hillary and Trump (48 per cent). Among those who could walk over to other side(s) on election day, it stands at Hillary (43 per cent) and Trump (34 per cent).
• Generally, third-party candidates go out of favour with voters as election day nears since most voters make up their mind between candidates from the two major parties. But despite the high unpopularity of both Hillary and Trump, third-party candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, are faring much worse than expected in such a race. Johnson’s peak has been 9 per cent, while Stein is yet to surpass her peak of 3 per cent votes.
• At the national level, 81 per cent of the support for Hillary and Trump comes from the voters in their respective parties. Twelve per cent of the voters from the Democrat and Republican camps vote for the candidate from the other party.
• Clinton leads by 10 points among women. Trump is ahead by nine among men.
• Those under 40 prefer Hillary to Trump while the balance tilts to Trump’s side among the elders.
• Voters say Clinton has more to hide than Trump does.
• Trump is ahead in traditionally Republican-favouring Utah, while Hillary leads Trump in the key state of Nevada.

Methodology

Rasmussen Reports collects data based on an automated polling methodology. The process is identical to that of traditional research firms like Gallup and Roper, but while the latter rely on operator assistance, the automated process employs a digitally-recorded voice to do the interview.

After the data is collected, it’s processed in such a way that all sections of the population, in terms of age, race, gender, political party and so on, are represented. The process also takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.

(For all of Rasmussen Reports data, read here.)