Why Granting Asylum To Sheikh Hasina May Come With Its Pitfalls But Is The Right Thing To Do

India should consider granting asylum to the ousted Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Hasina, along with her sister Sheikh Rehana, was forced to flee her country due to violent protest against her and her 15-year-old government.

Just an hour after she left for India, violent mobs ransacked her home, Gono Bhaban. These attackers bore no resemblance to the students who were portrayed as the face of the protests.

She is being kept in a safe house in Delhi where she is said to be exploring her options. When she first arrived, it was believed that she would try to secure asylum in the United Kingdom, since her sister Rehana is a UK citizen and Rehana’s daughter, Tulip Siddiq, is a British Member of Parliament (MP) in the current Labour government.

A formal letter was also sent to the UK on behalf of Hasina.

However, judging from the delays and interviews with senior UK officials, the United Kingdom does not seem too keen on taking her in and is dilly-dallying over her asylum, citing a technicality in its immigration laws.

UK’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy even went a step further and hinted at the UK’s support for a UN-led investigation into the violence in Bangladesh, effectively shutting down any chances of granting asylum to Hasina.

The United States, another country where her son, Sajeeb Wazed, lives, has revoked her visa.

The US has repeatedly shown its inclination against Hasina in favour of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami combine.

The US has even put extensive pressure on Hasina to heed the opposition's demand to hold January's general elections under a caretaker government, which Hasina resolutely refused. The resulting protests, violence, and her ouster are therefore seen as US retribution towards her.

With Hasina finding it hard to get a friendly country to grant her asylum, the Indian government should seriously consider doing so.

She has been the bedrock of strong relations between the two countries. She has helped India stabilise its eastern flank by breaking the back of northeastern militants hiding inside her country. Moreover, she has worked to weed out Islamists and Pakistani-aligned forces inside her country, who are now likely to have a free run.

Unlike Nepal, Sri Lanka, or Maldives, she never crossed Indian red lines and did not let China sway her thinking.

India has already granted asylum to Hasina once.

She, her husband, and her family stayed in India for six years after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, father of the nation and several members of his family, were assassinated by rebels in a military coup in 1975.

However, granting asylum to Hasina can also become a double-edged sword for India.

With the fall of Hasina, the BNP and hardcore Islamist Jamaat combine are the only major political powers left to pick up the pieces and fill the void vacated by Hasina. And they are likely to have a negative view towards India. They tried to portray India as the power that aided Hasina to be in power, turning New Delhi into a hate figure for many.

India's support to Hasina in the first 24 hours after her ouster has helped the image the BNP-Jamaat might want to portray for their supporters.

However, it has to contend with the new realities on the ground.

Abandoning a leader who has been a long standing ally of India would send a wrong message to many in India's neighbourhood. India would not only seem weak but would appear like a power which can't safeguard the interests of those who work with it. It would also embolden the forces of regime change and those in India's neighbourhood who seek to destabilise it and oust leaders seen as pro-India.

India cannot just watch and do nothing while such a situation is unfolding next to it. It has to manage the fallout of Hasina's ouster, especially when there is a distinct possibility of containing an influx of refugees, both religiously persecuted (Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists) and economic, at its eastern borders.

This will require talking to sane and moderate voices in the BNP-Jamaat combine and manage the situation. This could get difficult with Hasina living in New Delhi, but it wouldn't be impossible to pull off — perhaps Hasina living a quiet life away from limelight and political activity would help India's case.

Needless to say, this will be a litmus test of India's security establishment which will require innovative handling. Perhaps, the way India held dialogue with the Afghan Taliban and turned the tables from an equally hopeless situation can serve as an example.