Why Rahul Gandhi May Lose From Wayanad In 2024

Senior Marxist leader in Kerala, EP Jayarajan recently invited the Muslim League, and a former ally, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), to join the Left’s fold. This has implications for Rahul Gandhi

The context: In 2019, Rahul Gandhi won the Lok Sabha election from Wayanad in Kerala to become a Member of Parliament.

• Gandhi’s margin of victory, more than 4 lakh votes, was the highest in Kerala.

• This was largely due to the fact that the Congress had allied with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a party commanding decisive support in the Wayanad parliamentary constituency.

• The Congress-led coalition in Kerala, the United Democratic Front (UDF) also included the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) among others.

The long term impact. The Muslim League’s response for the time being has been to politely decline the offer. But there are reasons for the Congress to worry.

• There appears to be a growing realisation in the IUML that as an ally of the Congress, their chances of being part of a government are dwindling year upon year.

• This is because the Congress lost the bulk of its traditional Nair vote base to the BJP, as a result of which, the winnability of the Congress’s Hindu candidates has decreased in Kerala.

Also, the League and Communists are old pals. Even in recent times, Islamist-Leftists bonhomie was seen in events like:

• Protest meet at JNU on Afzal Guru,

• Shaheen Bagh,

• Delhi riots of 2020,

• Karnataka hijab row

The consequences are interesting. If the Congress-led coalition disintegrates in Kerala, that would ironically make the BJP the state’s de facto opposition.

• The offer from the LDF to the Muslim League still stands.

• After the refusal by the League, Communist leader Jayarajan, who made the offer, publicly rescinded his offer.

• However, he backtracked on his backtracking in an interview with a Kerala channel.

Bottomline: Last time Rahul Gandhi went looking for a safe seat because he perhaps sensed defeat in Amethi. Time to look for another safe seat apart from Wayanad?

You can read an in-depth analysis of the situation here.