Akhilesh's PDA Harming SP's Traditional MY Vote Base? Report Suggests Muslims Shifting Allegiance To Congress In UP

The Samajwadi Party (SP), Uttar Pradesh's primary opposition party, has conducted a survey which reportedly reveals that a significant portion of the Muslim voters in the state is shifting allegiance from the SP to the Congress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Muslims constitute approximately 19 per cent of the state's voters and hold significant sway in around 30 out of UP's 80 Lok Sabha seats.

A party insider stated, "Our recent survey indicates that over 60 per cent of Muslims may pivot towards the Congress, potentially eroding the SP's support base over time, given that Muslims and Yadavs form the core of our voter base."

However, when questioned about this, SP spokesperson Kirti Nidhi Pandey remained optimistic, saying to The Sunday Guardian, "One thing is clear in Uttar Pradesh — if there's a party that can challenge the BJP in the state, it's the SP. We believe the minority vote isn't slipping away because Muslims recognise that we are the only party with the credibility to take on the BJP; Congress lacks that."

Nevertheless, leaders within the Samajwadi Party acknowledge growing discontent among Muslims due to Akhilesh Yadav's emphasis on "PDA" meaning pichhde (backwards), Dalit, and alpasankhyak (minorities), where the significance of the Muslim bloc diminishes.

Additionally, insiders suggest that recent events where Akhilesh appeared less responsive to Muslim concerns have negatively impacted the Muslim electorate in the state.

A senior SP leader revealed, "The Muslim shift from SP doesn't require research; it's evident. Our party chief's management of Muslims has been poor, and he no longer connects with the grassroots. Voters have become more discerning and realise he only emerges months before elections."

Another party leader noted, "Over 80 per cent of Muslims voted for the SP in the last Assembly elections, yet there was no conclusive result. If they vote for Congress this time, it will hurt SP in the 2027 Assembly elections."

Political analysts believe that Muslim voting behavior has evolved since 2014, with their votes now considered "tactical votes" to defeat BJP candidates.

“They vote to defeat the BJP candidates. And such a trend has become more clear after Karnataka elections where a chunk of Muslims who were traditional voters of Janata Dal Secular left them and voted for the Congress. UP could see a similar trend,” a political analyst said.

With the SP's prospects dimming, a faction of the Congress leadership is contemplating forming an alliance without the SP, as the latter is holding onto 60 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, causing disagreement within the INDI Alliance.

A senior SP leader remarked, "Holding onto 60 seats out of 80 isn't accommodative. It doesn't convey a message of alliance-building."