India To See ‘Above Normal’ Rainfall In July: IMD

India is likely to see above-average rainfall in July, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday (1 July).

Addressing a virtual press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during July 2024 is most likely to be greater than 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 28.04 cm.

Following below-normal rainfall in June, the expected surplus rainfall in July is likely to benefit agriculture and improve prospects for kharif sowing.

Nearly all of India is expected to see surplus rainfall except for eastern, northeastern and northwestern India, Mohapatra said.

"Above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources but also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage. To manage these risks effectively, it is essential to reinforce infrastructure, utilise IMD's early warnings, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors,” the agency said in a press statement.

The generous rainfall in July is based on a 60 per cent chance of the emergence of La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, and the cooling of the central equatorial Pacific by a degree or more.

The IMD issued its first stage forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) on 15 April 2024 and updated it on 27 May.

Additionally, the IMD provided a forecast for June rainfall on 27 May. The forecast for rainfall during the second half of the season (August and September 2024) and for the month of August will be issued towards the end of July 2024.