Morning Brief: Three Out Of Nine Exit Polls Predict Hung Assembly In Maharashtra; NDA Leads In Close Fight With JMM+ In Jharkhand; Trudeau's Smear Campaign Against India Hits A New Low

Dear reader, catch up on the day’s must-read stories with Swarajya's roundup of the morning's headlines.

Maharashtra: Three Out Of Nine Polls Predict Hung Assembly

Polling in Maharashtra concluded with exit polls pointing to a tightly contested battle. Mahayuti’s seat estimates range between 125 and 195, while the MVA is predicted to secure 69 to 150 seats. Smaller parties are projected to win two to 25 seats, potentially holding the key to government formation.

While most surveys suggest a Mahayuti victory, three polls predict a hung assembly.

In 2019, pollsters overestimated the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance’s strength in Maharashtra, predicting a landslide, but the NDA secured only 161 seats—46 fewer than expected.

Jharkhand: Pollsters Predict NDA Ahead in Close Fight With JMM+

The second and final phase of the Jharkhand Assembly elections concluded yesterday, with pollsters predicting a close contest between the JMM-led INDIA alliance and the BJP-led NDA, with the latter slightly ahead. The second phase saw voting in 38 of the state’s 81 constituencies, following the first phase held on November 13.

Key battles in this phase included Chief Minister Hemant Soren facing BJP’s Gamaliel Hembrom in Barhait and AJSUP chief Sudesh Mahto contesting against former MLA Amit Mahto of the JMM in Silli. In Gandey, Kalpana Soren, the Chief Minister’s wife, is up against BJP’s Muniya Devi, while in Jama, Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita Soren, a BJP candidate, is challenging Congress MLA Irfan Ansari. These high-stakes contests will be pivotal in shaping the outcome of the 2024 Assembly elections in Jharkhand.

Trudeau's Smear Campaign Against India Hits A New Low

The Indian government dismissed as "ludicrous" a Canadian newspaper report alleging that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was aware of a plot to assassinate Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The Ministry of External Affairs, in a statement, criticized the report, purportedly based on a Canadian government source, and urged it to be treated with the "contempt it deserves." MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal emphasized that smear campaigns like this only harm already strained ties between India and Canada.

The report claimed that the alleged plot was orchestrated by Home Minister Amit Shah and that PM Modi, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval were informed. However, it admitted that Canada lacked evidence to substantiate the claim against PM Modi, further complicating the already tense relations.

Other Developments

Adani Accused In US Of Bribery And Fraud

Gautam Adani, chairman of the Adani Group, has been indicted in the US for his alleged role in a multibillion-dollar bribery and fraud scheme, US prosecutors have announced. Along with seven other defendants, including his nephew Sagar Adani, he is accused of paying approximately $265 million in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts worth an estimated $2 billion in profit over 20 years.

The indictment claims conspirators used code names like "Numero Uno" and "The Big Man" for Gautam Adani. Prosecutors also allege that Adani Green Energy’s executives, including Vneet Jaain, raised over $3 billion in loans and bonds while concealing corruption from investors and lenders. The charges include violations of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, an anti-bribery law.

RBI Warns Of Rising Inflation Yet Again

An article in the RBI’s latest bulletin cautioned that unchecked inflation could severely impact the real economy, particularly industry and exports. October's CPI inflation reading of 6.2 per cent, following September's spike, highlighted rising concerns after relatively stable outcomes in July and August. The article, titled *State of the Economy*, stressed the risks of complacency amid growing inflationary pressures.

Central bank officials noted a worrisome uptick in core inflation, driven by surging food prices and spillover effects. Processed food prices are rising in tandem with edible oil costs, while higher living expenses are pushing up wages for household services like domestic helps. Officials emphasized the need to closely monitor the pass-through of rising input costs into selling prices across goods and services.

Trump’s Aggressive Tariffs T Deepen CCP’s Economic Woes

The United States under President Donald Trump could impose nearly 40 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports in early 2025, potentially reducing China’s economic growth by up to one percentage point, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

The survey, conducted after Donald Trump’s re-election on November 5, suggests that while the President-elect is unlikely to start with blanket 60 per cent tariffs, his aggressive trade measures are set to heighten economic risks for Beijing.

These proposed tariffs are significantly higher than the 7.5-25 per cent levies imposed during Trump’s first term. With China’s economy already grappling with a prolonged property slump, rising debt risks, and weak domestic demand, the new tariffs could further exacerbate the troubles for the Chinese Communist Party.

Swarajya's Ground Report From UP's Prayagraj

Normalisation of test scores is a common practice worldwide. However, in Uttar Pradesh, it sparked a three-day standoff between the government and students.

Prayagraj has long been a hub for students preparing for state and central exams, especially those from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. As exam dates approach, the city’s coaching centres and libraries are usually packed with students staying up late for last-minute preparations. However, last week saw a dramatic change, with students instead gathering outside the UPPSC examination office in Prayagraj.

Swarajya's Ankit Saxena spent a few days on the ground in Prayagraj to bring you an inside look at the protests by aspirants. Read the full report here.

The Swarajya Heritage Trips Are Back

Swarajya’s beloved Heritage Tours are back! Our readers have always been eager to know more about these tours, whether during subscriber meetups, social media conversations, or casual interactions at events. In their short yet impactful journey, these tours have taken our readers to some of India’s most culturally significant destinations, from the majestic ruins of Hampi, Badami, and Pattadakal to the sacred temples of Srirangam, Chidambaram, and Tiruvannamalai, among others. After a brief hiatus, we’re excited to announce their return. And what better way to begin than by revisiting the historic capital of the Vijayanagara Empire, Hampi.

Read more about it here.

Stay tuned for more insights throughout the day.