How Withdrawal Of AFSPA From Many Areas Of Northeast Will Require Changes In Counter-Insurgency Operations

The withdrawal of the contentious Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from nearly two-thirds of the geographical areas of four northeastern states of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh will necessitate a re-calibration of tactics used in counter-insurgency (CI) operations.

The roll-back of AFSPA from vast swathes of the four states, announced by Union Home Minister Amit Shah last week, has been welcomed by all in the region. But it has raised some concerns among security experts who feel that the standard operating procedures (SOPs) governing CI operations in the areas from which the Act has been withdrawn need to be redrawn.

There is no doubt that the 31 districts of the four states--the aggregate number of districts in the four states is 90--from which AFSPA has been totally withdrawn, and the 12 districts from which the Act has been rolled back partially, have not witnessed any insurgency in recent times. In fact, for a few years now, the areas from which AFSPA has been withdrawn have remained free of insurgency.

And, hence, those areas have also not witnessed any CI operations as well. It thus made eminent sense for withdrawal of the Act, which provides an essential shield to the army to carry out CI operations (read this and this) but has been strongly opposed by many as ‘draconian’, from the ‘peaceful’ areas.

However, there is a fair bit of concern among security experts about deploying the army for CI operations in areas from which the AFSPA has been withdrawn. “It would have been good if the Union Home Minister had declared while announcing the withdrawal of the AFSPA that the army will no longer be asked to carry out CI operations in those areas,” said a former three-star ranked general who had served extensively in the Northeast.

“The army needs the AFSPA ‘shield’ and without it, there is no way the army can be deployed for CI operations. Contrary to perception in many quarters, the AFSPA is not a licence to kill and ‘excesses’ have been minimal. Such excesses have also been dealt with very sternly. It is completely wrong to say that the AFSPA has been grossly misused,” said the retired lieutenant general who had commanded a Corps in the Northeast.

Security experts say that the police forces of the four states, assisted by the Assam Rifles, should henceforth be deployed for any CI operations in the areas from where AFSPA has been withdrawn. Huge sums of money have been spent over the last few decades for training and modernising the police forces in the insurgency-affected states and it is time the police take up primary responsibility for a task which is essentially theirs.

“The police will now have to take the lead in maintaining law and order and ensuring that militant groups do not spread their tentacles once again to areas from where AFSPA has been withdrawn. The police, given proper support and political and administrative backup, can definitely deliver. The Assam Police, which quickly evolved into a very effective force in fighting insurgency, is a prime example,” said H.K Sarma, a retired IPS officer of the Assam-Meghalaya cadre.

The police, say security experts, have a huge responsibility now in ensuring that the areas from where the AFSPA has been withdrawn remain free of militancy. “The police have to step up policing and ensure that insurgent groups do not start operating in these 42 districts (31+12). The police will have to remain very vigilant and will have to crush any sign of revival of insurgent activities in these districts very swiftly and effectively,” said a Deputy Inspector General (equivalent to a Brigadier) of the Assam Rifles.

But, say Army and Assam Rifles officers, that could prove to be a tall order. “The police, due to its proximity to the civilian population and influence of local politicians over the force, often have links with militants and are not effective in fighting them. That is why the army and central paramilitary forces had to be deployed to tackle insurgency. To expect the police to function as an effective counter-insurgency force would be unrealistic,” said the Assam Rifles officer.

Some feel that the withdrawal of the AFSPA and the consequent disengagement of the army from the 42 districts will encourage insurgent groups to make fresh forays into those districts. “With the withdrawal (of the AFSPA), the militant groups may feel emboldened to re-enter those areas,” said the former army officer.

But others have a different point of view. “The withdrawal of the AFSPA fulfils a long-standing demand of the local people, who will be determined to safeguard peace and prevent a relapse into the dark days of insurgency and counter-insurgency operations. So the local people will form an effective bulwark against any attempt by militants to start their activities in those areas,” said Gunadhar Deka, a former IPS officer from Assam.

Deka added that this has been the case in many parts of Assam from where militancy had been wiped out. “The militants are mindful of local sentiments and will not go against them. So the chances of militant groups getting active once again in the areas from where AFSPA has been withdrawn are minimal,” he explained.

While everyone hopes that Deka’s contentions will hold true, there remain some grey areas. “Insurgents do not respect state or district boundaries and, thus, counter-insurgency operations led by the army in a live situation cannot be restricted to only those areas where the AFSPA is in force. For example, security forces may pursue insurgents to places from where AFSPA has been withdrawn and engage with them there. An exchange of fire, as often happens, may result in injuries or deaths. That would trigger probes by the civil administration and attempts to prosecute army personnel,” said the retired lieutenant general.

Without the protective shield of the AFSPA, the army will be reluctant to venture into areas where the Act is no longer in force. That will affect the overall CI operations in the region and, thus, the security grid.

Serving army officers told Swarajya that they will, henceforth, ask the police to take the lead in any counter-insurgency operations--even minor ones--in areas where the AFSPA is no longer in force. “We will inform the police about the insurgents and their movements or hideouts and ask the police to conduct the operations,” said a commanding officer of an Assam Rifles battalion deployed in Manipur.

That will surely compromise CI operations since the police are often hand-in-glove with insurgents, or are under the control of local politicians who have links with insurgents. But, says the Assam Rifles CO, that cannot be helped. “I will not expose my men to prosecution by civilian courts in case things go wrong,” he said.

The CO cited an instance in Manipur a couple of years ago where security forces gunned down a militant. “Some human rights groups and civil society organisations who have very strong links with insurgent groups and are often ‘overground’ workers of these groups raised a hue and cry and claimed it was a fake encounter. They demanded that the killing be probed by a civilian court and the army and Assam Rifles personnel be prosecuted. Thankfully, that didn’t happen due to the protective shield of the AFSPA,” he said.

The onus, thus, is now on the police to ensure that the areas from which AFSPA has been withdrawn remain free of insurgents. Because, if insurgents get active in those areas, the army and central paramilitary forces will not be willing to counter the insurgents once again without the AFSPA. Reimposition of AFSPA (to allow the army and paramilitary forces to take on insurgents) would turn the clock back on these vast swathes of the Northeast and is, thus, not an acceptable option.

The Union government has obliged the politicians, civil society groups and human rights bodies of the four states of the Northeast by conceding their long-standing demand for withdrawal of the Act. Now it is up to them to ensure that their lands remain free of the scourge of insurgency.

Also read:

-Why it is necessary for AFSPA to continue

-Why renewed demands for repeal of AFSPA in Northeast seem ignorant of ground realities